What follows is the master log5 for the 68-team field. For the noobs, here’s the deal:
– The calculations below represent the chance of each team advancing to a specific round based on the log5 formula and each team’s pythagorean rating. Unfamiliar with log5? Here’s more than you want to know.
– This does not represent Ken Pomeroy’s opinion. I don’t believe Florida has the best chance to win the tournament or that Pitt has the eighth-best chance, for instance.
– Don’t interpret these numbers as saying Ken Pomeroy’s computer is predicting Florida will win the tournament. It’s saying there’s a 79% chance they won’t.
– If you doubt that seeding doesn’t matter (much) check out how similar the order of these teams is to the team’s ranking in my system. Even Pitt doesn’t suffer much as an eight-seed.
Seed Team Rd32 Swt16 Elite8 Final4 Final Champ 1 in… 3S Florida 96.4 81.5 64.3 48.0 33.0 21.0 5 1MW Louisville 98.7 79.9 65.3 47.7 33.0 20.2 5 1E Indiana 97.1 82.1 62.1 49.1 28.0 16.2 6 1W Gonzaga 96.1 61.1 42.5 27.9 14.7 7.5 13 2W Ohio St. 89.8 66.6 46.2 24.4 11.6 5.3 19 2MW Duke 93.5 63.9 40.8 18.4 9.7 4.4 23 1S Kansas 95.1 69.1 42.9 18.1 9.3 4.2 24 8W Pitt 72.5 32.0 20.0 11.7 5.3 2.3 43 5W Wisconsin 70.7 51.1 22.7 12.8 5.5 2.3 44 3MW Michigan St. 80.0 54.2 27.8 11.2 5.3 2.1 47 4S Michigan 86.6 57.1 29.6 11.1 5.1 2.1 49 2E Miami FL 87.5 59.8 40.4 15.5 5.6 2.0 49 4E Syracuse 90.7 63.1 23.1 14.3 5.4 2.0 49 2S Georgetown 89.6 60.7 20.0 10.2 4.6 1.8 55 3W New Mexico 83.3 47.7 20.6 7.7 2.6 0.8 123 4MW St. Louis 78.0 44.5 12.3 5.3 2.0 0.6 155 7MW Creighton 63.8 25.1 12.7 4.2 1.6 0.5 188 3E Marquette 65.8 42.4 20.6 6.3 1.8 0.5 202 6W Arizona 62.8 33.4 13.7 4.8 1.5 0.4 225 5S VCU 66.1 29.4 12.1 3.5 1.3 0.4 262 5MW Oklahoma St. 61.6 33.0 8.4 3.4 1.2 0.4 275 9MW Missouri 53.0 11.1 5.9 2.4 0.9 0.3 365 11S Minnesota 60.7 12.1 5.6 2.2 0.8 0.2 445 7S San Diego St. 60.7 24.8 5.7 2.1 0.7 0.2 523 8S North Carolina 57.8 19.0 8.0 2.0 0.7 0.2 561 8MW Colorado St. 47.0 9.0 4.5 1.7 0.6 0.2 599 5E UNLV 61.6 23.8 5.8 2.7 0.7 0.2 618 8E N.C. State 64.9 13.0 5.5 2.6 0.6 0.2 631 7W Notre Dame 52.5 16.7 7.7 2.3 0.6 0.2 651 4W Kansas St. 59.1 21.7 5.8 2.2 0.6 0.1 702 11MW St. Mary's 31.2 13.3 5.0 1.5 0.5 0.1 708 7E Illinois 52.6 20.1 10.2 2.5 0.6 0.1 809 10W Iowa St. 47.5 14.2 6.2 1.7 0.4 0.1 1001 12W Ole Miss 29.3 15.3 3.9 1.4 0.4 0.08 1180 6MW Memphis 45.0 16.4 5.2 1.2 0.4 0.08 1215 10E Colorado 47.4 17.1 8.2 1.9 0.4 0.08 1257 6E Butler 54.3 23.2 8.5 1.8 0.4 0.07 1488 11MW Middle Tenn. 23.7 9.1 3.1 0.8 0.2 0.06 1680 9W Wichita St. 27.5 6.6 2.7 1.0 0.2 0.06 1712 10MW Cincinnati 36.2 10.1 3.8 0.9 0.2 0.05 1917 11W Belmont 37.2 15.4 4.6 1.1 0.2 0.05 1950 12MW Oregon 38.4 16.3 3.0 0.9 0.2 0.05 1990 9S Villanova 42.2 11.3 4.0 0.8 0.2 0.05 2155 6S UCLA 39.3 5.7 2.1 0.6 0.2 0.04 2825 14E Davidson 34.2 16.7 5.6 1.1 0.2 0.03 3018 11E Bucknell 45.7 17.7 5.8 1.1 0.2 0.03 3214 10S Oklahoma 39.3 12.5 2.1 0.6 0.1 0.03 3433 12S Akron 33.9 10.3 2.8 0.5 0.1 0.02 4420 12E California 38.4 11.2 2.0 0.7 0.1 0.02 4859 13W Boise St. 23.0 7.0 1.5 0.5 0.1 0.02 5011 9E Temple 35.1 4.5 1.3 0.4 0.07 0.01 9676 13W La Salle 17.9 4.9 0.9 0.3 0.05 0.009 11332 14MW Valparaiso 20.0 6.9 1.5 0.2 0.05 0.007 13688 13MW New Mexico St. 22.0 6.1 0.6 0.1 0.02 0.002 43849 13S S. Dakota St. 13.4 3.2 0.5 0.05 0.007 0.0007 147873 15W Iona 10.2 2.5 0.5 0.06 0.007 0.0007 149621 14W Harvard 16.7 3.6 0.5 0.06 0.006 0.0005 185251 15E Pacific 12.5 3.0 0.7 0.07 0.005 0.0004 227653 15S Fla Gulf Coast 10.4 2.1 0.1 0.02 0.002 0.0001 827389 13E Montana 9.3 1.8 0.1 0.02 0.001 <.0001 1226993 14S Northwestern St 3.6 0.6 0.08 0.009 0.0009 <.0001 1624189 15MW Albany 6.5 0.9 0.1 0.007 0.0005 <.0001 2970664 16S W. Kentucky 4.9 0.6 0.05 0.002 0.0002 <.0001 14116410 16W Southern 3.9 0.3 0.03 0.002 0.0001 <.0001 18436877 16E James Madison 1.5 0.2 0.02 0.002 0.0001 <.0001 20050035 16E LIU Brooklyn 1.4 0.2 0.02 0.002 0.0001 <.0001 21000589 16MW N.C. A&T 0.9 0.05 0.004 0.0002 <.0001 <.0001 577586835 16MW Liberty 0.5 0.02 0.001 <.0001 <.0001 <.0001 4164692791