The ACC/Big Ten challenge commences in a few hours. Last season’s challenge ended with each team winning six games apiece. You might think that means it was a tie, but this site recognizes the ACC as the defending. Because, really, ties are not what basketball is all about. And if the powers aren’t going to consider a tiebreaker, I’m fine with implementing my own, that being aggregate free throw percentage. It’s safe, in that it does not promote running up the score, and it rewards the conference that FOCUSES the best. Last season, the ACC won by outshooting the Big Ten 73.8% to 68.1%. See, isn’t that more satisfying than a tie?

According to the game-by-game win probabilities, this season’s challenge is very much up for grabs as well. First, the traditional bar chart:

Now the tabular version:

ACC: 30.4%
Tie: 25.8%
B1G: 43.8%

Out of a million simulations, the ACC won every game 19 times, and the Big Ten won every game 57 times. The ACC is favored in just five contests, but most games are close enough that another 6-6 tie is the most likely single outcome. So FOCUS and make those free throws, people!

Of course, these simulations take a rather pessimistic view of Duke, whose defensive performance against Vermont continues to be an anvil in their defensive rating calculation. The Catamounts have exceeded the 1.39 PPP they scored in Durham just five times in the past 12 seasons. Those performances came against Albany, Sacred Heart, Central Connecticut, NJIT, and Niagara. This was against Duke, at Duke.

It’s also worth remembering that the 15-team ACC gets to leave three teams at home for this event, and Clemson, Georgia Tech Wake Forest, and Virginia Tech will be sitting this one out. The conference wouldn’t mind subbing in Clemson at this point, but the rules of the challenge dictate that the lowest finishers from the previous season are excluded. On balance, this format gives the ACC a fundamental advantage.

There’s more at stake here than just a mythical trophy. With a solid performance over the next two days, the ACC could jump over the Big Ten in the ratings table.