The is the penultimate look at the 32 Monte Carlo simulations performed on each Division I conference regular season race. This will leave us with the six remaining conferences where the favorite has less than a 50/50 chance of winning its league. For those needing further explanation of what they are about to read, please consult Monday’s post, then follow up with Tuesday’s and Wednesday’s action. Please note, and I will remind you repeatedly below, that the following numbers were based on calculations that didn’t include last night’s games.

18. Missouri Valley (Wichita State, 58%)

I must admit an error in omitting the Valley from yesterday’s post. This tally doesn’t include the results from last night, but you can see why Missouri State’s upset at Creighton should make Shocker fans happy.

Wichita St.   5751
Creighton     2300
Northern Iowa 1343
Missouri St.   321
Indiana St.    175
Illinois St.   108
Drake            1
Bradley          0

12. Southland (Lamar, 53%)

Pat Knight’s done a fine job in his first season at Lamar, but he did inherit the most experienced team in the country. The Cardinals are one of the few teams that start five seniors.

Lamar             5259
Texas Arlington   2411
Texas San Antonio 2085
Stephen F. Austin  131
Northwestern St.    69
SE Louisiana        20
McNeese St.         15
Texas St.            7
Sam Houston St.      1
TAMU Corpus Christi  1

11. MEAC (Morgan State, 52%)

Coach Boze is at it again. Even with a 2-8 record, Morgan is a favorite over Norfolk State. What’s noteworthy here is that both teams are currently in the top 200. The MEAC hasn’t had multiple teams finish in the top 200 since I started tracking these kinds of things.

Morgan St.       5158
Norfolk St.      1903
NC Central       1068
Coppin St.        857
Savannah St.      597
Bethune Cookman   190
Hampton           169
Delaware St.       40
North Carolina A&T 11
Howard              8
South Carolina St.  0

10. Summit (Oral Roberts, 51%)

All three of the favorites here won in conference play last night, the Dakota brethren by a combined 63 points. So game on. These calculations do not include those results so it’s worth noting that North Dakota State’s win was over previously 2-0 Oakland.

Oral Roberts     5078
South Dakota St. 3150
North Dakota St. 1321
Oakland           431
IUPUI              11
Western Illinois    8
UMKC                1
Southern Utah       0

9. SWAC (Mississippi Valley St., 51%)

The Delta Devils have as many wins in regulation as national laughingstock Grambling (zero), and yet they are the favorite to win the SWAC. But when all the teams in the conference are taking repeated beatings from power conference teams on the road, it’s tough to put a lot of faith in these calculations.

Miss. Valley St. 5050
Jackson St.      1319
Texas Southern    949
Alabama A&M       791
Prairie View A&M  752
Ark. Pine Bluff   568
Alabama St.       356
Southern          148
Alcorn St.         67

8. Conference USA (Memphis, 50%)

Well, the doubters have been proven wrong: Memphis is better than last season. But not so much better than they are a lock to win CUSA. Marshall is a legitimate threat and Southern Miss’s chances are understated considering Darnell Dodson appears to be an impact addition after having been reinstated to the team two weeks ago.

Memphis       5012
Marshall      3094
Southern Miss  917
Tulane         361
Tulsa          223
UTEP           126
Central Florida 99
Rice            63
East Carolina   51
Houston         42
UAB             10
SMU              3

7. Horizon (Cleveland State, 50%)

No Norris Cole? No problem. Well, it’s been a slight problem because Cleveland State’s offense has been dreadful and that’s why, despite an 11-2 start that has included wins at Vanderbilt and Kent State, the Vikings are giving only a slightly better chance than Milwaukee of snagging the top seed in the Horizon.

Cleveland St. 4977
Milwaukee     3607
Butler         724
Valparaiso     413
Green Bay      185
Detroit         75
Youngstown St.  14
Loyola Chicago   3
Wright St.       2