I’ve spent a good chunk of the last couple weeks putting together a player projection system, my primary goal at this point simply having one exist so that, in the future, it can be improved upon. It’s built on a bunch of regressions that take into account the player’s stats from last season, his basic demographics, his team’s stats from last season, high school rankings and ratings, mock draft projections, and awards.
It cannot handle (yet) transfers, freshmen (although we have something else for some of them, as you’ll remember), redshirts, teammate activity, and coach activity. So quite a bit. But we have something to start with, and that’s something we didn’t have not too long ago.
I’ll get into some of the more interesting things I found in creating these projections as time goes on. For now, I’m giving you the projections for (1) every BCS All-Conference returnee, (2) every mid-major first-team All-Conference returnee, (3) every low-major conference Player of the Year, (4) projected top draft picks by Draft Express, and (5) ten guys who have awesome stats but fit none of those categories.
Two of the guys projected for the most regression are Doug McDermott and Isaiah Canaan, and it’s quickly clear what those three have in common: They all had fantastic, likely unsustainable shooting seasons in 2012. Some of their other numbers are certainly adjusted, but McDermott’s projected to drop from 49 percent to 38 percent and Canaan from 46 percent to 40 percent – a more impactful drop, considering the number of threes Canaan attempts. Jordan Taylor ran into this buzzsaw last year. Neither of those two should have bad seasons, by any means; McDermott probably still has the best projections of anyone. But don’t expect either of them to have another gear they’ve been holding back.
The biggest improvements are expected of Le’Bryan Nash, Joshua Smith, Adonis Thomas, and James Michael McAdoo, and the similarities between those four are equally clear: Projected high draft picks coming off unimpressive seasons tend to improve quickly. Last season, for example, we saw big jumps from Thomas Robinson, Patric Young, and C.J. Leslie.
ORtg %Pos OR/DR% A% TO% B/S% FC/40 FTR FT% 2P% 3P% 3PA%
Trevor Releford, Alabama 108 23 3/9 22 18 0/4 2.9 40 78% 50% 33% 30%
Solomon Hill, Arizona 111 25 8/19 18 19 2/2 2.8 45 73% 52% 35% 32%
B.J. Young, Arkansas 108 29 4/10 19 17 1/3 2.6 31 78% 50% 36% 37%
Pierre Jackson, Baylor 111 28 3/8 37 22 0/4 2.4 34 79% 47% 37% 47%
Mike Muscala, Bucknell 113 27 11/24 12 15 6/1 3.3 61 82% 56% 32% 10%
Javon McCrea, Buffalo 110 30 12/18 15 18 5/2 3.9 46 65% 58% 28% 2%
Brandon Davies, BYU 108 28 9/21 15 17 5/3 4.2 57 68% 56% 29% 3%
Allen Crabbe, California 112 23 4/16 12 13 2/1 1.7 21 83% 47% 40% 51%
Sean Kilpatrick, Cincy 112 21 4/11 15 14 1/2 1.9 18 76% 46% 38% 54%
Andre Roberson, Colorado 108 23 11/28 10 16 6/3 3.0 49 65% 54% 31% 19%
ORtg %Pos OR/DR% A% TO% B/S% FC/40 FTR FT% 2P% 3P% 3PA%
Wes Eikmeier, Colorado St. 104 24 1/8 14 16 0/2 2.3 29 84% 44% 37% 42%
Doug McDermott, Creighton 119 31 10/19 8 13 1/1 1.6 32 80% 57% 38% 25%
De’Mon Brooks, Davidson 114 29 11/18 10 16 3/3 4.6 38 74% 54% 33% 17%
Jake Cohen, Davidson 114 26 9/19 12 16 6/2 4.5 52 81% 55% 35% 28%
Chris Udofia, Denver 111 29 9/18 19 16 7/2 3.8 42 72% 58% 34% 27%
Ray McCallum, Detroit 110 27 4/12 27 17 1/3 2.3 41 76% 51% 33% 31%
Frantz Massenat, Drexel 113 21 3/9 29 17 1/2 2.8 47 81% 47% 37% 40%
Seth Curry, Duke 111 22 3/8 18 17 1/3 2.7 33 83% 46% 38% 51%
Mason Plumlee, Duke 110 23 12/23 12 20 5/2 3.8 62 55% 57% 27% 1%
Colt Ryan, Evansville 108 27 3/14 19 16 1/3 3.1 46 84% 43% 39% 43%
ORtg %Pos OR/DR% A% TO% B/S% FC/40 FTR FT% 2P% 3P% 3PA%
Kenny Boynton, Florida 116 23 3/8 17 13 0/2 1.3 25 78% 46% 40% 60%
Patric Young, Florida 114 22 12/18 10 17 3/1 3.6 40 64% 58% 28% 0%
Michael Snaer, Florida St. 107 25 3/12 14 16 1/2 2.2 28 81% 45% 38% 44%
Otto Porter, Georgetown 113 23 9/18 13 16 3/2 2.3 35 71% 56% 32% 21%
Elias Harris, Gonzaga 110 24 10/22 10 16 3/2 2.6 35 71% 53% 34% 24%
Kevin Pangos, Gonzaga 115 22 2/9 21 16 0/2 2.0 30 83% 47% 39% 62%
Alec Brown, Green Bay 104 23 11/21 6 17 9/2 3.3 40 76% 52% 29% 6%
Vander Joaquim, Hawaii 108 25 12/23 8 18 6/1 3.8 57 64% 58% 28% 2%
Brandon Paul, Illinois 100 27 4/14 20 18 3/3 3.1 42 74% 47% 35% 43%
Jackie Carmichael, IL St. 108 26 11/26 9 17 5/1 3.7 62 70% 55% 29% 5%
ORtg %Pos OR/DR% A% TO% B/S% FC/40 FTR FT% 2P% 3P% 3PA%
Cody Zeller, Indiana 119 26 12/19 10 16 4/3 3.8 62 72% 60% 30% 4%
Jeff Withey, Kansas 113 21 10/22 7 16 13/1 3.2 60 73% 55% 29% 0%
Rodney McGruder, K-State 113 22 7/12 11 15 1/2 2.1 31 81% 50% 36% 35%
C.J. McCollum, Lehigh 113 32 4/17 24 15 2/4 2.6 42 82% 49% 37% 33%
Julian Boyd, Long Island 115 28 10/23 6 15 2/1 3.9 54 72% 55% 33% 18%
Anthony Ireland, LMU 109 26 2/9 31 20 0/3 2.2 33 78% 45% 34% 37%
Chaz Williams, UMass 112 24 2/9 35 19 0/4 3.2 46 83% 45% 37% 36%
Adonis Thomas, Memphis 105 21 5/12 8 16 3/2 2.5 23 71% 52% 33% 27%
Kenny Kadji, Miami 105 22 8/17 7 16 6/1 3.6 39 69% 51% 33% 22%
Trey Burke, Michigan 107 27 3/10 28 17 1/2 1.8 29 75% 49% 35% 38%
ORtg %Pos OR/DR% A% TO% B/S% FC/40 FTR FT% 2P% 3P% 3PA%
Tim Hardaway, Michigan 106 26 4/12 15 15 1/1 2.4 33 71% 50% 35% 43%
Keith Appling, Mich. State 108 24 3/8 27 19 1/3 2.7 48 76% 51% 34% 32%
Michael Dixon, Missouri 114 28 1/9 24 16 0/2 2.1 38 83% 51% 38% 40%
Phil Pressey, Missouri 111 25 1/10 37 22 0/4 2.1 40 77% 48% 37% 36%
Isaiah Canaan, Murray St. 112 27 2/9 22 16 0/2 1.9 39 83% 47% 40% 59%
Lorenzo Brown, NC State 108 24 3/12 36 23 2/3 1.9 39 75% 49% 33% 23%
C.J. Leslie, NC State 105 27 10/19 10 18 5/2 3.2 50 65% 54% 29% 6%
Deonte Burton, Nevada 109 24 1/8 26 17 1/2 2.8 48 80% 46% 37% 46%
James Michael McAdoo, UNC 104 23 9/16 7 15 3/2 3.0 46 66% 48% 27% 2%
Tony Mitchell, North Texas 109 27 10/25 11 18 9/2 4.0 49 72% 55% 31% 24%
ORtg %Pos OR/DR% A% TO% B/S% FC/40 FTR FT% 2P% 3P% 3PA%
Drew Crawford, N’western 110 24 5/13 15 15 2/2 2.3 28 76% 49% 37% 38%
Jack Cooley, Notre Dame 118 21 14/22 7 15 5/2 3.4 51 66% 60% 28% 0%
Aaron Craft, Ohio State 111 20 3/11 30 23 1/5 3.0 48 73% 51% 34% 28%
Deshaun Thomas, Ohio State 119 26 9/12 9 12 1/1 2.1 25 76% 54% 36% 30%
Le’Bryan Nash, OK State 100 27 5/14 12 18 2/2 3.6 41 74% 47% 31% 21%
E.J. Singler, Oregon 114 24 6/16 15 17 2/1 2.9 38 85% 51% 38% 40%
Tim Frazier, Penn State 105 29 5/13 40 17 4/3 3.1 43 81% 45% 32% 20%
Ian Hummer, Princeton 106 30 9/19 21 17 4/3 2.8 41 71% 53% 32% 19%
Vincent Council, Prov. 105 26 3/9 39 19 1/2 2.1 30 74% 45% 31% 23%
J. Franklin, San Diego St. 106 30 7/20 12 17 3/2 3.0 47 77% 49% 36% 41%
ORtg %Pos OR/DR% A% TO% B/S% FC/40 FTR FT% 2P% 3P% 3PA%
Nate Wolters, S. Dak. St. 116 32 4/14 31 15 1/3 2.1 42 79% 51% 35% 27%
M. Dellavedova, St. Mary’s 116 25 2/10 33 18 1/2 1.8 40 82% 51% 38% 44%
Khalif Wyatt, Temple 111 28 3/11 22 16 1/3 2.6 46 81% 49% 38% 44%
Jeronne Maymon, Tennessee 108 24 12/20 11 19 2/2 3.9 61 65% 53% 28% 4%
Myck Kabongo, Texas 102 24 2/9 34 26 0/3 2.7 58 71% 44% 33% 34%
Ricky Tarrant, Tulane 107 25 2/10 23 16 0/3 2.9 43 77% 46% 35% 48%
Joshua Smith, UCLA 107 29 14/20 8 19 4/2 6.3 67 62% 56% 27% 2%
Keith Rendleman, UNCW 105 25 11/20 11 17 3/2 3.5 48 66% 53% 28% 2%
Mike Moser, UNLV 109 27 10/26 16 18 4/4 2.7 28 76% 53% 35% 32%
Torrey Craig, USC Upstate 107 27 9/20 11 16 4/3 3.6 27 71% 50% 37% 53%
ORtg %Pos OR/DR% A% TO% B/S% FC/40 FTR FT% 2P% 3P% 3PA%
Preston Medlin, Utah State 115 25 2/12 19 15 1/1 1.7 32 82% 49% 40% 55%
Ryan Broekhoff, Valparaiso 117 23 7/22 14 15 2/2 2.4 39 78% 56% 39% 48%
Kevin Van Wijk, Valparaiso 106 29 11/18 8 19 3/2 4.6 75 63% 59% 28% 0%
Erick Green, Virginia Tech 107 26 2/10 20 15 1/2 1.9 30 84% 44% 35% 16%
C.J. Harris, Wake Forest 106 24 2/9 17 16 0/2 2.3 48 82% 47% 37% 39%
Brock Motum, Wash. State 108 30 8/17 11 17 2/1 2.8 46 74% 55% 33% 20%
Leonard Washington, Wyo. 104 30 9/24 10 15 5/3 3.7 47 70% 55% 32% 22%
Kendrick Perry, Youngstown 110 26 3/9 27 15 1/4 1.8 38 74% 49% 35% 43%