The group of 16-seeds aren’t particularly strong this season, so it’s tough to get too excited about the possibility of a one-seed losing its first game. (The best chance for it will easily be NC Central against Kansas should it happen.) But if a 16-seed is really, truly serious about beating a one-seed, it should […]

Here are the chances each team makes it to each round based on my current ratings. Go Zags? Rd2 Swt16 Elite8 Final4 Final Champ 1W Gonzaga 98.5 83.9 60.2 45.4 29.6 20.5 1E Villanova 96.8 70.2 43.4 28.3 16.0 10.0 1S North Carolina 98.0 78.6 57.3 33.3 19.9 9.9 2S Kentucky 95.6 56.2 36.1 21.0 […]

Ivy League (conference rank: 17th) March 11-12 All games at Penn. kPOY: Steven Cook, Princeton Regular season champ: Princeton (preseason #36 / 1st Ivy, current #61) Overachiever: Penn (preseason #231, current #163) Underachiever: Dartmouth (preseason #216, current #304) The Ivy League debuts a real tournament this season and as it turns out, the league’s braintrust picked the exact worst format […]

Western Athletic Conference (conference rank: 21st) March 9-11 All games at Las Vegas. kPOY: Dewayne Russell, Grand Canyon Regular season champ: Cal State Bakersfield (preseason #129 / 1st WAC, current #110) Overachiever: Utah Valley (preseason #321, current #196) Underachiever: Chicago State (preseason #339, current #339) It was just two seasons ago that the WAC was ranked 31st among conferences. But things […]

Big West Conference (conference rank: 29th) March 9-11 All games at Anaheim, California. kPOY: Chima Moneke, UC Davis. Regular season champ: UC Irvine (preseason #120 / 2nd Big West, current #139) Overachiever: UC Davis (preseason #245, current #224) Underachiever: UC Santa Barbara (preseason #156, current #333) I’m not sure if a conference has ever face-planted as badly as the Big West did this season. […]

Atlantic 10 Conference (conference rank: 8th) March 9-12 All games at Pittsburgh, Pa. kPOY: TJ Cline, Richmond Regular season champ: Dayton (preseason #37 / 2nd American, current #34) Overachiever: George Mason (preseason #171, current #115) Underachiever: Saint Joseph’s (preseason #99, current #173) Here are the national leaders in assist percentage for players listed at 6-8 or taller (minimum 40% of team’s minutes): […]

American Athletic Conference (conference rank: 7th) March 9-12 All games at Connecticut. kPOY: Semi Ojeleye, SMU. Regular season champ: SMU (preseason #49 / 3rd American, current #12) Overachiever: SMU Underachiever: Connecticut (preseason #41, current #88) The American wasn’t a very entertaining conference. It ranked dead last among conferences in both effective field goal percentage and tempo in conference games. Between elite defenses […]

Big 12 Conference (conference rank: 1st) March 8-11 All games at Kansas City, Mo. kPOY: Johnathan Motley, Baylor Regular season champ: Kansas (preseason #3 / 1st Big 12, current #9) Overachiever: Oklahoma State (preseason #60, current #19) Underachiever: Texas (preseason #45, current #76) One of the main arguments about conference superiority is that the ACC is going to get the most tournament […]

Southeastern Conference (conference rank: 5th) March 8-12 All games at Nashville, Tenn. kPOY: Sindarius Thornwell, South Carolina. Regular season champ: Kentucky (preseason #4 / 1st SEC, current #7) Overachiever: Florida (preseason #17, current #6) Underachiever: LSU (preseason #101, current #159) Kentucky is on an eight-game winning yet their AdjEM rating (and ranking) has dropped slightly over that time. A seven-point home win to […]

Big Ten Conference (conference rank: 4th) March 8-12 All games at Washington, D.C. kPOY: Caleb Swanigan, Purdue Regular season champ: Purdue (preseason #15 / 4th Big Ten, current #13) Overachiever: Minnesota (preseason #71, current #32) Underachiever: Ohio State (preseason #13, current #69) The Big Ten tournament moves to the Verizon Center in Washington this season and the conference appears to have seven […]