My favorite aspect of win probability models is the concept of leverage. As Ken Pomeroy wrote in 2010, Leverage measures how much is at stake on a particular possession.    I’m especially interested in how leverage functions as an unorthodox stand-in for excitement level and game tension in basketball.  Considering we now have win probability […]

Programming note: This is the final Week in Review for the season. Conference tournaments start next week and probabilistic coverage of those events will take precedence until Selection Sunday arrives. Thanks to all for reading this season. Here are the most extreme things to happen in college basketball between Friday, February 20th and Thursday, February […]

Welcome to Play-by-Play Theater, the very irregular feature where I mine play-by-play data from the past five-plus seasons to discover the wacky things that happen in darkest corners of the college basketball universe. It was another epic night for #TeamBadLuck on Tuesday night. At one point, Florida missed seven consecutive free throws in the second […]

Here are the most extreme things to happen in college basketball between Friday, February 13th and Thursday, February 19th… Biggest upsets 3) #239 Miami OH 67, #59 Bowling Green (8%), Wednesday. The regular season in the MAC features high stakes because the winner of each division gets a triple bye to the conference tournament semifinals. […]

I recently added an MVP feature to the box scores on the site, whereby the best player in each game is chosen using John Hollinger’s Game Score with a three-point bonus for being on the winning team. You could probably just choose the MVP yourself, but it means more when a computer does it. One […]

Here are the most extreme things to happen in college basketball between Friday, February 6th and Thursday, February 12th… Biggest upsets 3) #297 Delaware 73, #127 Northeastern 68 (10%), Saturday. It hasn’t been a great year for the Blue Hens. Outside of senior two-guard Kyle Anderson—who has been around so long that I seriously thought […]

There has been recent discussion over at ESPN.com regarding the decline in home court advantage in the NBA. First, there was this piece by Tom Haberstroh, inspired by Steve Ilardi, and then additional analysis by Haberstroh and Kevin Pelton. It turns out the same effect exists at the college level. Here’s the evolution of home […]

Here are the most extreme things to happen in college basketball between Friday, January 30th and Thursday, February 5th… Biggest upsets 3) #342 Chicago State 56, #255 Grand Canyon 55 (9%), Saturday. I don’t talk much about the WAC around here for obvious reasons. But it’s important to remember that the conference used to be […]

The worst thing to happen on #SuperHoopsSaturday was VCU’s Briante Weber suffering a season-ending ACL tear in the Rams’ 64-55 loss to Richmond. Weber was on track to become college basketball’s steals king, as measured by total steals in one’s career. Providence’s John Linehan owns the record of 385, while Weber will finish his career […]

There are 151 games of D-I action today, the most of any day this season. I will chronicle some of them in an old-school live blog. 12:31 AM – UMKC is putting away Utah Valley and UCLA is going to win comfortably over Colorado. The Buffs could use a healthy Josh Scott. Utah Valley could […]