Here are the chances each team makes it to each round based on my current ratings. Go Zags?
Rd2 Swt16 Elite8 Final4 Final Champ
1W Gonzaga 98.5 83.9 60.2 45.4 29.6 20.5
1E Villanova 96.8 70.2 43.4 28.3 16.0 10.0
1S North Carolina 98.0 78.6 57.3 33.3 19.9 9.9
2S Kentucky 95.6 56.2 36.1 21.0 12.2 5.8
1MW Kansas 95.3 69.1 41.1 22.8 11.7 5.2
2MW Louisville 93.4 56.4 35.5 20.5 11.0 5.1
4W West Virginia 87.9 60.6 24.7 15.3 7.8 4.2
10S Wichita St. 75.0 37.3 22.9 12.8 7.1 3.3
2E Duke 91.7 62.9 33.5 15.0 6.5 3.2
4E Florida 82.9 46.7 22.0 12.3 5.7 3.0
5E Virginia 78.5 43.5 20.9 11.6 5.5 2.9
3MW Oregon 89.4 57.2 27.5 13.9 6.4 2.6
3E Baylor 84.1 46.9 26.5 11.9 5.2 2.5
6E SMU 76.7 42.9 24.4 11.0 4.9 2.4
4MW Purdue 76.8 45.3 24.0 12.3 5.8 2.4
7W Saint Mary's 71.0 40.3 24.6 9.8 4.5 2.2
3S UCLA 92.2 52.3 21.6 10.3 4.9 1.8
3W Florida St. 86.3 59.1 29.9 10.1 4.1 1.8
2W Arizona 92.5 48.9 28.2 9.8 4.0 1.8
5MW Iowa St. 73.1 39.2 19.7 9.6 4.3 1.7
4S Butler 84.3 52.2 20.9 8.5 3.6 1.2
6S Cincinnati 61.3 31.5 12.7 5.9 2.7 1.0
7MW Michigan 51.3 22.5 11.9 5.6 2.5 1.0
10MW Oklahoma St. 48.7 20.3 10.7 5.1 2.1 0.8
8E Wisconsin 66.5 22.7 10.0 4.8 1.8 0.8
5W Notre Dame 68.7 28.3 8.3 4.0 1.5 0.6
6MW Creighton 59.8 26.5 9.9 4.0 1.4 0.4
8MW Miami FL 54.3 17.5 6.8 2.4 0.8 0.2
5S Minnesota 54.3 24.7 7.3 2.2 0.7 0.2
10E Marquette 51.2 18.5 6.7 1.9 0.5 0.1
7E South Carolina 48.8 17.1 6.1 1.7 0.4 0.1
11W Xavier 51.3 19.4 6.7 1.4 0.4 0.1
8S Arkansas 54.1 12.1 5.3 1.5 0.4 0.1
11MW Rhode Island 40.2 14.5 4.3 1.4 0.4 0.1
12S Middle Tennessee 45.7 19.2 5.2 1.4 0.4 0.1
9MW Michigan St. 45.7 12.5 4.2 1.3 0.4 0.08
11S Kansas St. 19.9 7.9 2.3 0.8 0.3 0.08
9W Vanderbilt 51.5 8.3 2.8 1.1 0.3 0.08
6W Maryland 48.7 17.8 6.0 1.1 0.3 0.07
8W Northwestern 48.5 7.5 2.4 0.9 0.2 0.07
11S Wake Forest 18.9 7.3 2.0 0.7 0.2 0.06
7S Dayton 25.0 6.1 2.2 0.7 0.2 0.04
9S Seton Hall 45.9 9.1 3.6 0.9 0.3 0.04
10W VCU 29.0 10.1 3.9 0.7 0.2 0.04
9E Virginia Tech 33.5 6.7 1.9 0.6 0.1 0.04
12MW Nevada 26.9 8.3 2.3 0.6 0.1 0.02
13MW Vermont 23.2 7.2 1.9 0.4 0.1 0.02
12W Princeton 31.3 7.7 1.2 0.4 0.1 0.02
11E Providence 12.5 3.8 1.1 0.2 0.05 0.01
12E UNC Wilmington 21.5 5.3 1.0 0.2 0.05 0.007
13E East Tennessee St. 17.1 4.5 0.8 0.2 0.03 0.007
11E USC 10.8 3.2 0.9 0.2 0.03 0.005
13W Bucknell 12.1 3.4 0.4 0.08 0.01 0.003
14W Florida Gulf Coast 13.7 3.8 0.7 0.05 0.009 0.002
14E New Mexico St. 15.9 3.2 0.6 0.08 0.007 0.001
13S Winthrop 15.7 3.8 0.4 0.04 0.004 0.001
14MW Iona 10.6 1.9 0.2 0.03 0.002 <.001
15MW Jacksonville St. 6.6 0.8 0.1 0.01 0.002 <.001
15E Troy 8.3 1.5 0.2 0.02 <.001 <.001
16MW North Carolina Central 3.8 0.8 0.09 0.007 <.001 <.001
14S Kent St. 7.8 1.0 0.07 0.005 <.001 <.001
15W North Dakota 7.5 0.8 0.09 0.003 <.001 <.001
15S Northern Kentucky 4.4 0.4 0.04 0.003 <.001 <.001
16E New Orleans 2.3 0.3 0.03 0.003 <.001 <.001
16S Texas Southern 2.0 0.3 0.03 <.001 <.001 <.001
16W South Dakota St. 1.5 0.2 0.02 <.001 <.001 <.001
16E Mount St. Mary's 1.0 0.08 0.005 <.001 <.001 <.001
16MW UC Davis 0.9 0.1 0.005 <.001 <.001 <.001
Rd2 Swt16 Elite8 Final4 Final Champ
1W Gonzaga 98.5 83.9 60.2 45.4 29.6 20.5
4W West Virginia 87.9 60.6 24.7 15.3 7.8 4.2
7W Saint Mary's 71.0 40.3 24.6 9.8 4.5 2.2
3W Florida St. 86.3 59.1 29.9 10.1 4.1 1.8
2W Arizona 92.5 48.9 28.2 9.8 4.0 1.8
5W Notre Dame 68.7 28.3 8.3 4.0 1.5 0.6
11W Xavier 51.3 19.4 6.7 1.4 0.4 0.1
9W Vanderbilt 51.5 8.3 2.8 1.1 0.3 0.08
6W Maryland 48.7 17.8 6.0 1.1 0.3 0.07
8W Northwestern 48.5 7.5 2.4 0.9 0.2 0.07
10W VCU 29.0 10.1 3.9 0.7 0.2 0.04
12W Princeton 31.3 7.7 1.2 0.4 0.1 0.02
13W Bucknell 12.1 3.4 0.4 0.08 0.01 0.003
14W Florida Gulf Coast 13.7 3.8 0.7 0.05 0.009 0.002
15W North Dakota 7.5 0.8 0.09 0.003 <.001 <.001
16W South Dakota St. 1.5 0.2 0.02 <.001 <.001 <.001
Rd2 Swt16 Elite8 Final4 Final Champ
1E Villanova 96.8 70.2 43.4 28.3 16.0 10.0
2E Duke 91.7 62.9 33.5 15.0 6.5 3.2
4E Florida 82.9 46.7 22.0 12.3 5.7 3.0
5E Virginia 78.5 43.5 20.9 11.6 5.5 2.9
3E Baylor 84.1 46.9 26.5 11.9 5.2 2.5
6E SMU 76.7 42.9 24.4 11.0 4.9 2.4
8E Wisconsin 66.5 22.7 10.0 4.8 1.8 0.8
10E Marquette 51.2 18.5 6.7 1.9 0.5 0.1
7E South Carolina 48.8 17.1 6.1 1.7 0.4 0.1
9E Virginia Tech 33.5 6.7 1.9 0.6 0.1 0.04
11E Providence 12.5 3.8 1.1 0.2 0.05 0.01
12E UNC Wilmington 21.5 5.3 1.0 0.2 0.05 0.007
13E East Tennessee St. 17.1 4.5 0.8 0.2 0.03 0.007
11E USC 10.8 3.2 0.9 0.2 0.03 0.005
14E New Mexico St. 15.9 3.2 0.6 0.08 0.007 0.001
15E Troy 8.3 1.5 0.2 0.02 <.001 <.001
16E New Orleans 2.3 0.3 0.03 0.003 <.001 <.001
16E Mount St. Mary's 1.0 0.08 0.005 <.001 <.001 <.001
Rd2 Swt16 Elite8 Final4 Final Champ
1S North Carolina 98.0 78.6 57.3 33.3 19.9 9.9
2S Kentucky 95.6 56.2 36.1 21.0 12.2 5.8
10S Wichita St. 75.0 37.3 22.9 12.8 7.1 3.3
3S UCLA 92.2 52.3 21.6 10.3 4.9 1.8
4S Butler 84.3 52.2 20.9 8.5 3.6 1.2
6S Cincinnati 61.3 31.5 12.7 5.9 2.7 1.0
5S Minnesota 54.3 24.7 7.3 2.2 0.7 0.2
8S Arkansas 54.1 12.1 5.3 1.5 0.4 0.1
12S Middle Tennessee 45.7 19.2 5.2 1.4 0.4 0.1
11S Kansas St. 19.9 7.9 2.3 0.8 0.3 0.08
11S Wake Forest 18.9 7.3 2.0 0.7 0.2 0.06
7S Dayton 25.0 6.1 2.2 0.7 0.2 0.04
9S Seton Hall 45.9 9.1 3.6 0.9 0.3 0.04
13S Winthrop 15.7 3.8 0.4 0.04 0.004 0.001
14S Kent St. 7.8 1.0 0.07 0.005 <.001 <.001
15S Northern Kentucky 4.4 0.4 0.04 0.003 <.001 <.001
16S Texas Southern 2.0 0.3 0.03 <.001 <.001 <.001
Rd2 Swt16 Elite8 Final4 Final Champ
1MW Kansas 95.3 69.1 41.1 22.8 11.7 5.2
2MW Louisville 93.4 56.4 35.5 20.5 11.0 5.1
3MW Oregon 89.4 57.2 27.5 13.9 6.4 2.6
4MW Purdue 76.8 45.3 24.0 12.3 5.8 2.4
5MW Iowa St. 73.1 39.2 19.7 9.6 4.3 1.7
7MW Michigan 51.3 22.5 11.9 5.6 2.5 1.0
10MW Oklahoma St. 48.7 20.3 10.7 5.1 2.1 0.8
6MW Creighton 59.8 26.5 9.9 4.0 1.4 0.4
8MW Miami FL 54.3 17.5 6.8 2.4 0.8 0.2
11MW Rhode Island 40.2 14.5 4.3 1.4 0.4 0.1
9MW Michigan St. 45.7 12.5 4.2 1.3 0.4 0.08
12MW Nevada 26.9 8.3 2.3 0.6 0.1 0.02
13MW Vermont 23.2 7.2 1.9 0.4 0.1 0.02
14MW Iona 10.6 1.9 0.2 0.03 0.002 <.001
15MW Jacksonville St. 6.6 0.8 0.1 0.01 0.002 <.001
16MW North Carolina Central 3.8 0.8 0.09 0.007 <.001 <.001
16MW UC Davis 0.9 0.1 0.005 <.001 <.001 <.001