Here’s the log5 for the sweet sixteen using ratings as of Monday morning…
Elite8 Final4 Final Champ 1 in… Pvs 1MW Kentucky 88.5 72.3 46.6 36.4 3 33.8 2W Arizona 83.8 53.5 27.5 19.7 5 13.9 1W Wisconsin 72.1 34.4 15.1 9.8 10 10.5 2S Gonzaga 76.8 37.8 24.9 8.4 12 5.4 1S Duke 54.4 32.0 21.8 7.9 13 4.5 5S Utah 45.6 25.0 16.1 5.2 19 2.0 3E Oklahoma 55.4 33.7 13.6 3.4 29 1.4 4E Louisville 62.3 28.6 9.8 2.0 50 0.3 7E Michigan St. 44.6 24.9 8.8 1.9 53 0.2 7MW Wichita St. 50.8 12.1 3.7 1.7 59 0.7 3MW Notre Dame 49.2 11.4 3.4 1.5 65 1.1 4W North Carolina 27.9 7.7 2.0 0.8 121 0.7 8E N.C. State 37.7 12.8 3.1 0.4 233 0.03 6W Xavier 16.2 4.3 0.9 0.3 342 0.09 5MW West Virginia 11.5 4.2 0.9 0.3 355 0.2 11S UCLA 23.2 5.3 2.0 0.3 363 0.03
Pvs = pre-tournament chance of winning