Here are the chances each team makes it to each round based on my current ratings. Go Zags?
Rd2 Swt16 Elite8 Final4 Final Champ 1W Gonzaga 98.5 83.9 60.2 45.4 29.6 20.5 1E Villanova 96.8 70.2 43.4 28.3 16.0 10.0 1S North Carolina 98.0 78.6 57.3 33.3 19.9 9.9 2S Kentucky 95.6 56.2 36.1 21.0 12.2 5.8 1MW Kansas 95.3 69.1 41.1 22.8 11.7 5.2 2MW Louisville 93.4 56.4 35.5 20.5 11.0 5.1 4W West Virginia 87.9 60.6 24.7 15.3 7.8 4.2 10S Wichita St. 75.0 37.3 22.9 12.8 7.1 3.3 2E Duke 91.7 62.9 33.5 15.0 6.5 3.2 4E Florida 82.9 46.7 22.0 12.3 5.7 3.0 5E Virginia 78.5 43.5 20.9 11.6 5.5 2.9 3MW Oregon 89.4 57.2 27.5 13.9 6.4 2.6 3E Baylor 84.1 46.9 26.5 11.9 5.2 2.5 6E SMU 76.7 42.9 24.4 11.0 4.9 2.4 4MW Purdue 76.8 45.3 24.0 12.3 5.8 2.4 7W Saint Mary's 71.0 40.3 24.6 9.8 4.5 2.2 3S UCLA 92.2 52.3 21.6 10.3 4.9 1.8 3W Florida St. 86.3 59.1 29.9 10.1 4.1 1.8 2W Arizona 92.5 48.9 28.2 9.8 4.0 1.8 5MW Iowa St. 73.1 39.2 19.7 9.6 4.3 1.7 4S Butler 84.3 52.2 20.9 8.5 3.6 1.2 6S Cincinnati 61.3 31.5 12.7 5.9 2.7 1.0 7MW Michigan 51.3 22.5 11.9 5.6 2.5 1.0 10MW Oklahoma St. 48.7 20.3 10.7 5.1 2.1 0.8 8E Wisconsin 66.5 22.7 10.0 4.8 1.8 0.8 5W Notre Dame 68.7 28.3 8.3 4.0 1.5 0.6 6MW Creighton 59.8 26.5 9.9 4.0 1.4 0.4 8MW Miami FL 54.3 17.5 6.8 2.4 0.8 0.2 5S Minnesota 54.3 24.7 7.3 2.2 0.7 0.2 10E Marquette 51.2 18.5 6.7 1.9 0.5 0.1 7E South Carolina 48.8 17.1 6.1 1.7 0.4 0.1 11W Xavier 51.3 19.4 6.7 1.4 0.4 0.1 8S Arkansas 54.1 12.1 5.3 1.5 0.4 0.1 11MW Rhode Island 40.2 14.5 4.3 1.4 0.4 0.1 12S Middle Tennessee 45.7 19.2 5.2 1.4 0.4 0.1 9MW Michigan St. 45.7 12.5 4.2 1.3 0.4 0.08 11S Kansas St. 19.9 7.9 2.3 0.8 0.3 0.08 9W Vanderbilt 51.5 8.3 2.8 1.1 0.3 0.08 6W Maryland 48.7 17.8 6.0 1.1 0.3 0.07 8W Northwestern 48.5 7.5 2.4 0.9 0.2 0.07 11S Wake Forest 18.9 7.3 2.0 0.7 0.2 0.06 7S Dayton 25.0 6.1 2.2 0.7 0.2 0.04 9S Seton Hall 45.9 9.1 3.6 0.9 0.3 0.04 10W VCU 29.0 10.1 3.9 0.7 0.2 0.04 9E Virginia Tech 33.5 6.7 1.9 0.6 0.1 0.04 12MW Nevada 26.9 8.3 2.3 0.6 0.1 0.02 13MW Vermont 23.2 7.2 1.9 0.4 0.1 0.02 12W Princeton 31.3 7.7 1.2 0.4 0.1 0.02 11E Providence 12.5 3.8 1.1 0.2 0.05 0.01 12E UNC Wilmington 21.5 5.3 1.0 0.2 0.05 0.007 13E East Tennessee St. 17.1 4.5 0.8 0.2 0.03 0.007 11E USC 10.8 3.2 0.9 0.2 0.03 0.005 13W Bucknell 12.1 3.4 0.4 0.08 0.01 0.003 14W Florida Gulf Coast 13.7 3.8 0.7 0.05 0.009 0.002 14E New Mexico St. 15.9 3.2 0.6 0.08 0.007 0.001 13S Winthrop 15.7 3.8 0.4 0.04 0.004 0.001 14MW Iona 10.6 1.9 0.2 0.03 0.002 <.001 15MW Jacksonville St. 6.6 0.8 0.1 0.01 0.002 <.001 15E Troy 8.3 1.5 0.2 0.02 <.001 <.001 16MW North Carolina Central 3.8 0.8 0.09 0.007 <.001 <.001 14S Kent St. 7.8 1.0 0.07 0.005 <.001 <.001 15W North Dakota 7.5 0.8 0.09 0.003 <.001 <.001 15S Northern Kentucky 4.4 0.4 0.04 0.003 <.001 <.001 16E New Orleans 2.3 0.3 0.03 0.003 <.001 <.001 16S Texas Southern 2.0 0.3 0.03 <.001 <.001 <.001 16W South Dakota St. 1.5 0.2 0.02 <.001 <.001 <.001 16E Mount St. Mary's 1.0 0.08 0.005 <.001 <.001 <.001 16MW UC Davis 0.9 0.1 0.005 <.001 <.001 <.001 Rd2 Swt16 Elite8 Final4 Final Champ 1W Gonzaga 98.5 83.9 60.2 45.4 29.6 20.5 4W West Virginia 87.9 60.6 24.7 15.3 7.8 4.2 7W Saint Mary's 71.0 40.3 24.6 9.8 4.5 2.2 3W Florida St. 86.3 59.1 29.9 10.1 4.1 1.8 2W Arizona 92.5 48.9 28.2 9.8 4.0 1.8 5W Notre Dame 68.7 28.3 8.3 4.0 1.5 0.6 11W Xavier 51.3 19.4 6.7 1.4 0.4 0.1 9W Vanderbilt 51.5 8.3 2.8 1.1 0.3 0.08 6W Maryland 48.7 17.8 6.0 1.1 0.3 0.07 8W Northwestern 48.5 7.5 2.4 0.9 0.2 0.07 10W VCU 29.0 10.1 3.9 0.7 0.2 0.04 12W Princeton 31.3 7.7 1.2 0.4 0.1 0.02 13W Bucknell 12.1 3.4 0.4 0.08 0.01 0.003 14W Florida Gulf Coast 13.7 3.8 0.7 0.05 0.009 0.002 15W North Dakota 7.5 0.8 0.09 0.003 <.001 <.001 16W South Dakota St. 1.5 0.2 0.02 <.001 <.001 <.001 Rd2 Swt16 Elite8 Final4 Final Champ 1E Villanova 96.8 70.2 43.4 28.3 16.0 10.0 2E Duke 91.7 62.9 33.5 15.0 6.5 3.2 4E Florida 82.9 46.7 22.0 12.3 5.7 3.0 5E Virginia 78.5 43.5 20.9 11.6 5.5 2.9 3E Baylor 84.1 46.9 26.5 11.9 5.2 2.5 6E SMU 76.7 42.9 24.4 11.0 4.9 2.4 8E Wisconsin 66.5 22.7 10.0 4.8 1.8 0.8 10E Marquette 51.2 18.5 6.7 1.9 0.5 0.1 7E South Carolina 48.8 17.1 6.1 1.7 0.4 0.1 9E Virginia Tech 33.5 6.7 1.9 0.6 0.1 0.04 11E Providence 12.5 3.8 1.1 0.2 0.05 0.01 12E UNC Wilmington 21.5 5.3 1.0 0.2 0.05 0.007 13E East Tennessee St. 17.1 4.5 0.8 0.2 0.03 0.007 11E USC 10.8 3.2 0.9 0.2 0.03 0.005 14E New Mexico St. 15.9 3.2 0.6 0.08 0.007 0.001 15E Troy 8.3 1.5 0.2 0.02 <.001 <.001 16E New Orleans 2.3 0.3 0.03 0.003 <.001 <.001 16E Mount St. Mary's 1.0 0.08 0.005 <.001 <.001 <.001 Rd2 Swt16 Elite8 Final4 Final Champ 1S North Carolina 98.0 78.6 57.3 33.3 19.9 9.9 2S Kentucky 95.6 56.2 36.1 21.0 12.2 5.8 10S Wichita St. 75.0 37.3 22.9 12.8 7.1 3.3 3S UCLA 92.2 52.3 21.6 10.3 4.9 1.8 4S Butler 84.3 52.2 20.9 8.5 3.6 1.2 6S Cincinnati 61.3 31.5 12.7 5.9 2.7 1.0 5S Minnesota 54.3 24.7 7.3 2.2 0.7 0.2 8S Arkansas 54.1 12.1 5.3 1.5 0.4 0.1 12S Middle Tennessee 45.7 19.2 5.2 1.4 0.4 0.1 11S Kansas St. 19.9 7.9 2.3 0.8 0.3 0.08 11S Wake Forest 18.9 7.3 2.0 0.7 0.2 0.06 7S Dayton 25.0 6.1 2.2 0.7 0.2 0.04 9S Seton Hall 45.9 9.1 3.6 0.9 0.3 0.04 13S Winthrop 15.7 3.8 0.4 0.04 0.004 0.001 14S Kent St. 7.8 1.0 0.07 0.005 <.001 <.001 15S Northern Kentucky 4.4 0.4 0.04 0.003 <.001 <.001 16S Texas Southern 2.0 0.3 0.03 <.001 <.001 <.001 Rd2 Swt16 Elite8 Final4 Final Champ 1MW Kansas 95.3 69.1 41.1 22.8 11.7 5.2 2MW Louisville 93.4 56.4 35.5 20.5 11.0 5.1 3MW Oregon 89.4 57.2 27.5 13.9 6.4 2.6 4MW Purdue 76.8 45.3 24.0 12.3 5.8 2.4 5MW Iowa St. 73.1 39.2 19.7 9.6 4.3 1.7 7MW Michigan 51.3 22.5 11.9 5.6 2.5 1.0 10MW Oklahoma St. 48.7 20.3 10.7 5.1 2.1 0.8 6MW Creighton 59.8 26.5 9.9 4.0 1.4 0.4 8MW Miami FL 54.3 17.5 6.8 2.4 0.8 0.2 11MW Rhode Island 40.2 14.5 4.3 1.4 0.4 0.1 9MW Michigan St. 45.7 12.5 4.2 1.3 0.4 0.08 12MW Nevada 26.9 8.3 2.3 0.6 0.1 0.02 13MW Vermont 23.2 7.2 1.9 0.4 0.1 0.02 14MW Iona 10.6 1.9 0.2 0.03 0.002 <.001 15MW Jacksonville St. 6.6 0.8 0.1 0.01 0.002 <.001 16MW North Carolina Central 3.8 0.8 0.09 0.007 <.001 <.001 16MW UC Davis 0.9 0.1 0.005 <.001 <.001 <.001