Here are the chances each team makes it to each round based on my current ratings. Go Zags?

                             Rd2   Swt16  Elite8 Final4 Final  Champ
 1W  Gonzaga                 98.5   83.9   60.2   45.4   29.6   20.5
 1E  Villanova               96.8   70.2   43.4   28.3   16.0   10.0
 1S  North Carolina          98.0   78.6   57.3   33.3   19.9    9.9
 2S  Kentucky                95.6   56.2   36.1   21.0   12.2    5.8
 1MW Kansas                  95.3   69.1   41.1   22.8   11.7    5.2
 2MW Louisville              93.4   56.4   35.5   20.5   11.0    5.1
 4W  West Virginia           87.9   60.6   24.7   15.3    7.8    4.2
10S  Wichita St.             75.0   37.3   22.9   12.8    7.1    3.3
 2E  Duke                    91.7   62.9   33.5   15.0    6.5    3.2
 4E  Florida                 82.9   46.7   22.0   12.3    5.7    3.0
 5E  Virginia                78.5   43.5   20.9   11.6    5.5    2.9
 3MW Oregon                  89.4   57.2   27.5   13.9    6.4    2.6
 3E  Baylor                  84.1   46.9   26.5   11.9    5.2    2.5
 6E  SMU                     76.7   42.9   24.4   11.0    4.9    2.4
 4MW Purdue                  76.8   45.3   24.0   12.3    5.8    2.4
 7W  Saint Mary's            71.0   40.3   24.6    9.8    4.5    2.2
 3S  UCLA                    92.2   52.3   21.6   10.3    4.9    1.8
 3W  Florida St.             86.3   59.1   29.9   10.1    4.1    1.8
 2W  Arizona                 92.5   48.9   28.2    9.8    4.0    1.8
 5MW Iowa St.                73.1   39.2   19.7    9.6    4.3    1.7
 4S  Butler                  84.3   52.2   20.9    8.5    3.6    1.2
 6S  Cincinnati              61.3   31.5   12.7    5.9    2.7    1.0
 7MW Michigan                51.3   22.5   11.9    5.6    2.5    1.0
10MW Oklahoma St.            48.7   20.3   10.7    5.1    2.1    0.8
 8E  Wisconsin               66.5   22.7   10.0    4.8    1.8    0.8
 5W  Notre Dame              68.7   28.3    8.3    4.0    1.5    0.6
 6MW Creighton               59.8   26.5    9.9    4.0    1.4    0.4
 8MW Miami FL                54.3   17.5    6.8    2.4    0.8    0.2
 5S  Minnesota               54.3   24.7    7.3    2.2    0.7    0.2
10E  Marquette               51.2   18.5    6.7    1.9    0.5    0.1
 7E  South Carolina          48.8   17.1    6.1    1.7    0.4    0.1
11W  Xavier                  51.3   19.4    6.7    1.4    0.4    0.1
 8S  Arkansas                54.1   12.1    5.3    1.5    0.4    0.1
11MW Rhode Island            40.2   14.5    4.3    1.4    0.4    0.1
12S  Middle Tennessee        45.7   19.2    5.2    1.4    0.4    0.1
 9MW Michigan St.            45.7   12.5    4.2    1.3    0.4    0.08
11S  Kansas St.              19.9    7.9    2.3    0.8    0.3    0.08
 9W  Vanderbilt              51.5    8.3    2.8    1.1    0.3    0.08
 6W  Maryland                48.7   17.8    6.0    1.1    0.3    0.07
 8W  Northwestern            48.5    7.5    2.4    0.9    0.2    0.07
11S  Wake Forest             18.9    7.3    2.0    0.7    0.2    0.06
 7S  Dayton                  25.0    6.1    2.2    0.7    0.2    0.04
 9S  Seton Hall              45.9    9.1    3.6    0.9    0.3    0.04
10W  VCU                     29.0   10.1    3.9    0.7    0.2    0.04
 9E  Virginia Tech           33.5    6.7    1.9    0.6    0.1    0.04
12MW Nevada                  26.9    8.3    2.3    0.6    0.1    0.02
13MW Vermont                 23.2    7.2    1.9    0.4    0.1    0.02
12W  Princeton               31.3    7.7    1.2    0.4    0.1    0.02
11E  Providence              12.5    3.8    1.1    0.2    0.05   0.01
12E  UNC Wilmington          21.5    5.3    1.0    0.2    0.05   0.007
13E  East Tennessee St.      17.1    4.5    0.8    0.2    0.03   0.007
11E  USC                     10.8    3.2    0.9    0.2    0.03   0.005
13W  Bucknell                12.1    3.4    0.4    0.08   0.01   0.003
14W  Florida Gulf Coast      13.7    3.8    0.7    0.05   0.009  0.002
14E  New Mexico St.          15.9    3.2    0.6    0.08   0.007  0.001
13S  Winthrop                15.7    3.8    0.4    0.04   0.004  0.001
14MW Iona                    10.6    1.9    0.2    0.03   0.002  <.001
15MW Jacksonville St.         6.6    0.8    0.1    0.01   0.002  <.001
15E  Troy                     8.3    1.5    0.2    0.02   <.001  <.001
16MW North Carolina Central   3.8    0.8    0.09   0.007  <.001  <.001
14S  Kent St.                 7.8    1.0    0.07   0.005  <.001  <.001
15W  North Dakota             7.5    0.8    0.09   0.003  <.001  <.001
15S  Northern Kentucky        4.4    0.4    0.04   0.003  <.001  <.001
16E  New Orleans              2.3    0.3    0.03   0.003  <.001  <.001
16S  Texas Southern           2.0    0.3    0.03   <.001  <.001  <.001
16W  South Dakota St.         1.5    0.2    0.02   <.001  <.001  <.001
16E  Mount St. Mary's         1.0    0.08   0.005  <.001  <.001  <.001
16MW UC Davis                 0.9    0.1    0.005  <.001  <.001  <.001

                             Rd2   Swt16  Elite8 Final4 Final  Champ
 1W  Gonzaga                 98.5   83.9   60.2   45.4   29.6   20.5   
 4W  West Virginia           87.9   60.6   24.7   15.3    7.8    4.2   
 7W  Saint Mary's            71.0   40.3   24.6    9.8    4.5    2.2
 3W  Florida St.             86.3   59.1   29.9   10.1    4.1    1.8   
 2W  Arizona                 92.5   48.9   28.2    9.8    4.0    1.8   
 5W  Notre Dame              68.7   28.3    8.3    4.0    1.5    0.6   
11W  Xavier                  51.3   19.4    6.7    1.4    0.4    0.1   
 9W  Vanderbilt              51.5    8.3    2.8    1.1    0.3    0.08  
 6W  Maryland                48.7   17.8    6.0    1.1    0.3    0.07  
 8W  Northwestern            48.5    7.5    2.4    0.9    0.2    0.07  
10W  VCU                     29.0   10.1    3.9    0.7    0.2    0.04  
12W  Princeton               31.3    7.7    1.2    0.4    0.1    0.02  
13W  Bucknell                12.1    3.4    0.4    0.08   0.01   0.003 
14W  Florida Gulf Coast      13.7    3.8    0.7    0.05   0.009  0.002 
15W  North Dakota             7.5    0.8    0.09   0.003  <.001  <.001 
16W  South Dakota St.         1.5    0.2    0.02   <.001  <.001  <.001 

                             Rd2   Swt16  Elite8 Final4 Final  Champ
 1E  Villanova               96.8   70.2   43.4   28.3   16.0   10.0   
 2E  Duke                    91.7   62.9   33.5   15.0    6.5    3.2   
 4E  Florida                 82.9   46.7   22.0   12.3    5.7    3.0   
 5E  Virginia                78.5   43.5   20.9   11.6    5.5    2.9   
 3E  Baylor                  84.1   46.9   26.5   11.9    5.2    2.5   
 6E  SMU                     76.7   42.9   24.4   11.0    4.9    2.4   
 8E  Wisconsin               66.5   22.7   10.0    4.8    1.8    0.8   
10E  Marquette               51.2   18.5    6.7    1.9    0.5    0.1   
 7E  South Carolina          48.8   17.1    6.1    1.7    0.4    0.1   
 9E  Virginia Tech           33.5    6.7    1.9    0.6    0.1    0.04  
11E  Providence              12.5    3.8    1.1    0.2    0.05   0.01  
12E  UNC Wilmington          21.5    5.3    1.0    0.2    0.05   0.007 
13E  East Tennessee St.      17.1    4.5    0.8    0.2    0.03   0.007 
11E  USC                     10.8    3.2    0.9    0.2    0.03   0.005 
14E  New Mexico St.          15.9    3.2    0.6    0.08   0.007  0.001 
15E  Troy                     8.3    1.5    0.2    0.02   <.001  <.001 
16E  New Orleans              2.3    0.3    0.03   0.003  <.001  <.001 
16E  Mount St. Mary's         1.0    0.08   0.005  <.001  <.001  <.001 


                             Rd2   Swt16  Elite8 Final4 Final  Champ
 1S  North Carolina          98.0   78.6   57.3   33.3   19.9    9.9   
 2S  Kentucky                95.6   56.2   36.1   21.0   12.2    5.8   
10S  Wichita St.             75.0   37.3   22.9   12.8    7.1    3.3   
 3S  UCLA                    92.2   52.3   21.6   10.3    4.9    1.8   
 4S  Butler                  84.3   52.2   20.9    8.5    3.6    1.2   
 6S  Cincinnati              61.3   31.5   12.7    5.9    2.7    1.0   
 5S  Minnesota               54.3   24.7    7.3    2.2    0.7    0.2   
 8S  Arkansas                54.1   12.1    5.3    1.5    0.4    0.1   
12S  Middle Tennessee        45.7   19.2    5.2    1.4    0.4    0.1  
11S  Kansas St.              19.9    7.9    2.3    0.8    0.3    0.08  
11S  Wake Forest             18.9    7.3    2.0    0.7    0.2    0.06  
 7S  Dayton                  25.0    6.1    2.2    0.7    0.2    0.04  
 9S  Seton Hall              45.9    9.1    3.6    0.9    0.3    0.04  
13S  Winthrop                15.7    3.8    0.4    0.04   0.004  0.001 
14S  Kent St.                 7.8    1.0    0.07   0.005  <.001  <.001 
15S  Northern Kentucky        4.4    0.4    0.04   0.003  <.001  <.001 
16S  Texas Southern           2.0    0.3    0.03   <.001  <.001  <.001 
 
                             Rd2   Swt16  Elite8 Final4 Final  Champ
 1MW Kansas                  95.3   69.1   41.1   22.8   11.7    5.2   
 2MW Louisville              93.4   56.4   35.5   20.5   11.0    5.1   
 3MW Oregon                  89.4   57.2   27.5   13.9    6.4    2.6   
 4MW Purdue                  76.8   45.3   24.0   12.3    5.8    2.4   
 5MW Iowa St.                73.1   39.2   19.7    9.6    4.3    1.7   
 7MW Michigan                51.3   22.5   11.9    5.6    2.5    1.0   
10MW Oklahoma St.            48.7   20.3   10.7    5.1    2.1    0.8   
 6MW Creighton               59.8   26.5    9.9    4.0    1.4    0.4   
 8MW Miami FL                54.3   17.5    6.8    2.4    0.8    0.2   
11MW Rhode Island            40.2   14.5    4.3    1.4    0.4    0.1  
 9MW Michigan St.            45.7   12.5    4.2    1.3    0.4    0.08  
12MW Nevada                  26.9    8.3    2.3    0.6    0.1    0.02  
13MW Vermont                 23.2    7.2    1.9    0.4    0.1    0.02  
14MW Iona                    10.6    1.9    0.2    0.03   0.002  <.001 
15MW Jacksonville St.         6.6    0.8    0.1    0.01   0.002  <.001 
16MW North Carolina Central   3.8    0.8    0.09   0.007  <.001  <.001 
16MW UC Davis                 0.9    0.1    0.005  <.001  <.001  <.001