“Our conference is in the worst condition officiating I’ve ever seen. When people come out and steal basketball games from our young people like that crew did, they deserve to be put in jail and not working basketball games” – Lute Olson, March 6, 1982

There’s nothing treated less objectively in college hoops than the analysis of officiating. Even the most measured individuals will claim that [conference your team is in] has the worst officials in the country. And it’s a well-known fact that [team you root for] always gets screwed on the big calls. And then you get Lute Olson, who at one point in his career advocated imprisoning referees that missed a call.

Nobody, in the media or otherwise, will claim that a particular conference has the best officials and certainly no team’s fan base revels in always getting the calls. Nobody’s ever going to say, “this was the best season for officiating that I can remember”. It’s not going to happen because while officiating may suck, people also suck at evaluating it.

If we had officiating statistics, that would be different, if only slightly. If we knew that a certain official had the highest accuracy rate in the land, we could put a missed call in context.  However, that’s not the world we live in, and nobody is going to take the time to monitor whether Verne Harris likes to call the arm bar in the post, so we are left with officiating in [name of conference] sucks.

But there is enough data available to do limited analysis of officiating. With thousands of games each season and three refs working each game, one can tease out some high-level trends on officials. We’ll never be able to know which officials are the best. But we can get a sense of which ones tend to call more fouls than others.

To that end, I gathered officiating assignments for games over the past three seasons. I wanted to control for a few things which might skew the raw numbers, like…

– Which officials worked with each other.

– The day of the season. More fouls are called earlier in the season and officials that may have missed a portion of the season due to injury or other reasons will be treated more fairly by accounting for this.

– The final margin of the game. Close games tend to have more fouls called.

– Number of overtimes. More fouls are going to be called in games with more minutes.

– Fouling tendencies of the participating teams. Given the regional nature of officiating, some officials may call games in particularly foul-prone or foul-averse conferences. Both the season-long offensive and defensive foul/minute rates are used for the two participating teams.

– Because 2015 is a partial season, I’ve had to add a variable to account for that. Season-long foul rates are inflated for 2015 compared to other seasons since we don’t have the quieter part of the season in the data set yet.

Even controlling for these things, there’s still the possibility that an official just happens to work a bunch of games where there actually were many more (or fewer) fouls than the average game. Theoretically, this issue goes away with more data. Therefore, I established a minimum of 30 games for an official to be included in the study. That gives us a total of 350 officials, and many of these have worked over 100 games, with a handful pushing 200 over the period of study. The possibility of randomness greatly influencing the results exists with just 30 games, but it becomes much less of an issue at 100 games.

Games involving officials who haven’t worked 30 games are still used in the analysis. Those officials are labeled ‘inexperienced’ and are the reference points for the experienced refs.

An item of note is that scorers are notoriously sloppy in recording officials names. I’ve spent many hours correcting some of the typos I’ve found but no doubt, there are many more. And that says nothing of the same guy being referred to by different names, or the really lazy scorekeeper who just puts down the last name of each official, or the issue of Jr. and Sr. designations being used and omitted willy-nilly. I can’t swear that I got the officiating Covingtons correct in every case, and I can only assume that Bert Smith and Bret Smith have been confused at some point by the disinterested scorekeeper.

(Which brings me to an interesting discovery worth sharing. The November 24th game between Jackson State and Loyola Chicago featured a crew made up entirely one family. Tom O’Neill, Sr. officiated with his sons Rick and Thomas, which struck me as wild. On a related note, I’m guessing one or two of Thomas’s games have ended up being credited to Tom.
But even with the shoddy record keeping, there’s enough data here – over 12,000 games worth – that the conclusions are still robust.)

Regarding the results of this study, there really shouldn’t be any value judgments placed on the numbers. Whether a guy calls more or less fouls than average is just a thing. If you know who’s on the crew for your team’s next game, let this be a handy reference as to whether to whether the game might be called tight or not. If a game has 55 fouls, it’s worth referencing whether the crew was populated with foul-happy officials before accusing them of hating the game of basketball. There are games where a lot of actual fouls happen, unfortunately.

And if you happen to hit the jackpot and Ted Valentine and Roger Ayers are working together, you’ll now know there’s a high chance of getting an NBA JAM re-creation where a player could be knocked off his feet and there won’t be a whistle. To that end, here are the 20 most extreme officials in terms of fouls called per 40 minutes, relative to average.

Official      Games Rating   Official      Games Rating
ROGER AYERS    231  -3.61    LANDON BRANDES  32  +3.33
TED VALENTINE  197  -3.44    LEE MARELLI     30  +2.87
BILL JACOBSON   32  -3.02    HORACE SHIELDS  45  +2.74
GREG LANGSDORF  36  -2.92    PAUL JANSSEN   102  +2.62
QUEZ CRAWFORD   39  -2.91    JERRY HEATER   145  +2.32
BRETT NANSEL   106  -2.87    GUY PAGANO     106  +2.22
PAT BOEH        42  -2.76    ART JACKSON     38  +2.20
JOHN HAMPTON   143  -2.72    ROD MRAKOVICH   42  +2.18
KEVIN FERGUSON  82  -2.71    COURTNEY HOLMES 33  +2.02
ALAN SPAINHOUR  61  -2.50    RICK SHOULDERS  37  +1.95

Yes, it’s true. Ayers and Valentine show more discretion than anyone else in the land. It’s all the more impressive considering their nearest competition has worked many fewer games and probably won’t be as extreme once they’ve worked a few dozen more games.

Valentine might be the most famous official in the game so it may come as a surprise that he doesn’t call many fouls. You may outright deny this, or feel like it doesn’t apply to big moments in the game. Or maybe you were at a game where Valentine reffed and there were a bunch of fouls. That’s the thing, though: I’m not sure anyone really knows who has a tight or loose whistle.

Indeed, the last time Valentine was in the news, he was ejecting a fan from a February 26 game between South Carolina and Auburn. That contest had a whopping 53 fouls. Then again, Valentine’s officiating partners that night both graded out as having a quicker-than-average whistle. The bigger point is that every game is different and some games surely have a bunch of actual fouls where even the most restrained official is going to have to make some calls. Oddly, the ejected fan in this case was complaining about Valentine not calling more fouls

Speaking of the dynamic duo of Valentine and Ayers, they’ve worked together six times in the past three seasons according to my database. Here were the results:

  Date            Game             Fouls   Expected*
11/25/12  Rhode Island at Auburn     31        48   (2OT)
12/17/12  S.C. State at Missouri     18        31
02/07/13  Missouri at Texas A&M      32        34
12/22/13  USC at Dayton              37        44   (OT)
02/19/14  Cincinnati at UCF          29        35
02/27/14  Temple at Louisville       32        37

*Based on three average officials

Obviously it’s a small sample, but in six games a crew with Valentine and Ayers have called 50 fewer fouls than would otherwise be expected. Of course, each game has its own character and it would be unfair to suggest that the South Carolina State/Missouri game truly had 13 uncalled fouls. But the long term record of these guys strongly suggests that they let some things go that most other officials don’t.

In most cases, an officiating crew won’t deviate from the normal crew by more than a couple of fouls, which is not something you’ll notice during a game. But if a crew is, in aggregate, five or six fouls different from average, that could be something worth knowing.

The complete model output is below.

                     Estimate   Std. Error   t value Pr(>|t|)
(Intercept)            -18.90      0.92      -20.52   < 2e-16 ***

ROGER_AYERS             -3.61      0.40       -8.94   < 2e-16 ***
TED_VALENTINE           -3.44      0.43       -7.98  1.55E-15 ***
BILL_JACOBSON           -3.02      1.02       -2.96  0.003123 **
GREG_LANGSDORF          -2.92      0.99       -2.95  0.003186 **
QUEZ_CRAWFORD           -2.91      0.97       -2.99   0.00282 **
BRETT_NANSEL            -2.87      0.59       -4.88  1.07E-06 ***
PAT_BOEH                -2.76      0.92       -3.01  0.002595 **
JOHN_HAMPTON            -2.72      0.50       -5.40  6.89E-08 ***
KEVIN_FERGUSON          -2.71      0.66       -4.09  4.36E-05 ***
ALAN_SPAINHOUR          -2.50      0.77       -3.24  0.001196 **
RUBEN_RAMOS             -2.46      0.75       -3.27  0.001098 **
ANTHONY_JORDAN          -2.46      0.51       -4.81  1.53E-06 ***
MIKE_REED               -2.45      0.48       -5.12  3.08E-07 ***
GARY_MAXWELL            -2.34      0.46       -5.06  4.23E-07 ***
FORREST_SIGLER          -2.31      0.90       -2.57  0.010146 *
GARRICK_SHANNON         -2.30      0.79       -2.91   0.00361 **
TOMMY_SHORT             -2.27      1.01       -2.25  0.024592 *
PAUL_FAIA               -2.22      0.50       -4.47  8.06E-06 ***
ERIC_ANDERSON           -2.21      1.04       -2.12  0.033717 *
TOM_COURTNEY            -2.18      0.72       -3.05  0.002297 **
MIKE_ALVARO             -2.14      0.99       -2.17  0.030417 *
LAMAR_SIMPSON           -2.14      0.48       -4.46  8.17E-06 ***
BRANDON_CRUZ            -2.10      0.70       -2.98  0.002867 **
STEVE_DIVINE            -2.09      0.94       -2.24  0.025149 *
JON_CAMPBELL            -2.08      0.91       -2.28   0.02282 *
GENE_STERATORE          -2.06      0.53       -3.88  0.000106 ***
MITCHELL_ERVIN          -2.06      0.70       -2.92   0.00349 **
JAMES_BARKER            -2.01      0.57       -3.50  0.000472 ***
KEVIN_FEHR              -1.97      0.75       -2.65  0.008077 **
JAMES_DURHAM            -1.96      0.75       -2.60  0.009235 **
GEDIMINAS_PETRAITIS     -1.95      1.12       -1.73  0.083343 .
TONY_DAWKINS            -1.92      0.85       -2.27  0.023385 *
LAMONT_SIMPSON          -1.89      0.48       -3.95  7.72E-05 ***
STEVE_MCJUNKINS         -1.88      0.55       -3.44  0.000591 ***
GREG_NIXON              -1.82      0.49       -3.74  0.000188 ***
DICK_CARTMELL           -1.77      0.60       -2.93   0.00338 **
KEITH_FOGLEMAN          -1.76      0.89       -1.98    0.0483 *
SCOTT_BROWN             -1.75      0.73       -2.40   0.01657 *
MARK_COOK               -1.75      0.87       -2.00  0.045712 *
DARRYL_SMITH            -1.73      0.63       -2.75  0.006001 **
BRIAN_OCONNELL          -1.73      0.43       -4.03  5.71E-05 ***
NATHAN_QUICK            -1.72      0.80       -2.14  0.032469 *
ANTHONY_FRANKLIN        -1.63      0.68       -2.39  0.016988 *
MARQUES_PETTIGREW       -1.61      0.72       -2.25   0.02427 *
JASON_BAKER             -1.57      0.70       -2.24  0.025342 *
DERON_WHITE             -1.55      0.57       -2.70  0.006937 **
MIKE_SCYPHERS           -1.55      0.48       -3.20  0.001358 **
JOHN_MOORE              -1.53      0.87       -1.77  0.077306 .
GARY_PRAGER             -1.49      0.48       -3.11  0.001895 **
CHARLES_RUSSELL         -1.49      0.91       -1.64  0.101767
DOUG_SHOWS              -1.47      0.45       -3.29  0.001005 **
JAMES_GIRON             -1.46      0.88       -1.66  0.097691 .
BRIAN_SHEY              -1.45      0.69       -2.10  0.035381 *
ANTINIO_PETTY           -1.44      0.54       -2.65  0.008005 **
KYLE_INGRAM             -1.44      0.72       -2.01  0.044634 *
KEN_DITTY               -1.43      0.62       -2.30  0.021577 *
JOE_DEROSA              -1.42      0.50       -2.82  0.004788 **
LEVON_ZAKARIAN          -1.42      1.06       -1.35  0.178739
TONY_CHIAZZA            -1.40      0.57       -2.48  0.013213 *
GERALD_WILLIAMS         -1.40      0.63       -2.20  0.027534 *
ROSS_CULLINS            -1.40      1.09       -1.29  0.198177
ROB_KUENEMAN            -1.37      0.75       -1.82  0.069621 .
ED_CORBETT              -1.36      0.46       -2.97  0.003016 **
TERRY_DAVIS             -1.31      0.65       -2.02  0.043237 *
STEVE_OLSON             -1.30      0.85       -1.52  0.127533
BILL_VINOVICH           -1.29      0.82       -1.58  0.115142
RICK_CRAWFORD           -1.29      0.52       -2.47  0.013534 *
WILLIAM_HUMES           -1.29      0.69       -1.88  0.060735 .
BRETT_MILES             -1.28      0.92       -1.39  0.164712
ANDREW_MAIRA            -1.28      0.67       -1.91  0.056746 .
PAT_DRISCOLL            -1.25      0.48       -2.59  0.009701 **
DAMON_WILLIAMS          -1.24      1.04       -1.19  0.233621
TOM_EADES               -1.17      0.46       -2.57  0.010237 *
JOSEPH_PALACZ           -1.16      0.88       -1.32  0.185776
JIM_HANEY               -1.16      0.71       -1.65  0.100075
MIKE_KITTS              -1.14      0.52       -2.21  0.027371 *
MATT_POTTER             -1.08      0.55       -1.97  0.048908 *
DARYL_GELINAS           -1.08      0.59       -1.84  0.066154 .
SCOTT_JOHNSON           -1.05      0.82       -1.29  0.196484
MIKE_LUCKIE             -1.05      0.94       -1.11  0.265646
JOE_WILBERT             -1.04      1.00       -1.04  0.298958
KEVIN_BRILL             -1.01      0.55       -1.84  0.066056 .
ALVIN_COX               -0.98      0.76       -1.28  0.199537
JOHN_CAHILL             -0.97      0.69       -1.41  0.159222
JEB_HARTNESS            -0.96      0.57       -1.68  0.092408 .
SEAN_CASEY              -0.96      0.71       -1.36   0.17401
RICK_HARTZELL           -0.96      0.47       -2.02  0.043228 *
GENE_GRIMSHAW           -0.95      0.84       -1.14  0.254854
AARON_SMITH             -0.93      1.20       -0.78  0.437485
BYRON_JARRETT           -0.92      0.67       -1.38  0.168055
LOUIE_ANDRAKAKOS        -0.92      0.63       -1.47  0.142787
KIPP_KISSINGER          -0.92      0.47       -1.97  0.049351 *
RANDY_HEIMERMAN         -0.91      0.53       -1.73  0.082915 .
BRANDON_WILLIAMS        -0.88      0.89       -0.98  0.325148
GARY_PUCINO             -0.87      0.62       -1.41  0.157937
KURT_WALKER             -0.85      0.65       -1.31   0.19049
GLENN_TUITT             -0.83      0.73       -1.13  0.258125
PAUL_SZELC              -0.82      0.53       -1.57  0.116352
JEFF_SMITH              -0.82      0.51       -1.60  0.109706
CARL_LUCIANO            -0.82      1.05       -0.78  0.437886
DELDRE_CARR             -0.81      0.64       -1.27  0.203087
MIKE_IRVING             -0.80      0.51       -1.56  0.119689
GERRY_POLLARD           -0.78      0.46       -1.69  0.090339 .
JEFF_ALBRIGHT           -0.78      0.82       -0.95  0.341993
GARY_DUDA               -0.76      0.95       -0.80  0.424119
KENNETH_TURNER          -0.75      1.09       -0.69  0.490806
DONNIE_OLSON            -0.75      1.09       -0.69  0.492691
JIM_FERRARI             -0.73      1.10       -0.67  0.505761
FREDDIE_WILLIAMS        -0.73      1.04       -0.70   0.48164
CRAIG_MURLEY            -0.72      0.93       -0.78  0.435645
RONNIE_HERNANDEZ        -0.72      0.91       -0.80  0.426486
VLADIMIR_VOYARD_TADA    -0.72      0.69       -1.04   0.29779
JEFF_SPEDOSKE           -0.70      0.90       -0.77  0.440213
RON_TYBURSKI            -0.68      0.69       -0.98  0.325139
RYAN_MCDANIEL           -0.67      0.82       -0.82  0.412921
BRENT_MEAUX             -0.67      0.73       -0.91  0.361857
LEE_CASSELL             -0.66      0.57       -1.16  0.244693
SCOTT_YOUNG             -0.66      0.97       -0.68  0.493991
TODD_AUSTIN             -0.65      0.71       -0.91   0.36129
RYAN_HOLMES             -0.64      0.82       -0.78  0.434246
MARC_ELLARD             -0.62      0.70       -0.89  0.374854
BART_WEGENKE            -0.61      1.09       -0.56  0.573463
KC_ELY                  -0.61      0.71       -0.86  0.390344
SCOTT_THORNLEY          -0.61      0.77       -0.79  0.430456
TED_HILLARY             -0.60      1.09       -0.55   0.57978
BOB_TESTA               -0.60      0.76       -0.79  0.431502
NATE_HARRIS             -0.60      0.93       -0.64  0.521101
RAY_STYONS              -0.59      0.52       -1.15  0.249878
TOMMY_NUNEZ             -0.59      0.57       -1.03  0.301495
BILL_LAUBENSTEIN        -0.57      1.08       -0.53  0.596527
DOUG_SIRMONS            -0.57      0.44       -1.29  0.195975
ROBERT_RILEY            -0.54      0.70       -0.78   0.43856
DON_DAILY               -0.54      0.48       -1.13  0.260288
DORAN_GOTSCHALL         -0.51      0.85       -0.60  0.545935
TIM_COMER               -0.46      0.58       -0.80  0.423732
BRAD_FERRIE             -0.44      0.67       -0.65  0.515951
JOHN_HIGGINS            -0.42      0.41       -1.02  0.307629
JEFF_CLARK              -0.42      0.51       -0.83  0.408222
DOUG_APRAHAMIAN         -0.41      0.90       -0.46  0.644675
DON_MCALLISTER          -0.39      0.84       -0.47  0.642132
TIM_CLOUGHERTY          -0.38      0.50       -0.76  0.447575
GLEN_MAYBERRY           -0.37      0.61       -0.61  0.542186
PAUL_HUOVINEN           -0.37      0.98       -0.38  0.706977
RAY_NATILI              -0.37      0.43       -0.85  0.394203
RAY_PERONE              -0.37      0.49       -0.75  0.454021
SEAN_HULL               -0.36      0.52       -0.70  0.481612
ED_CRENSHAW             -0.35      0.84       -0.42  0.671582
BRUCE_BENEDICT          -0.35      0.75       -0.47  0.639068
CHRIS_RASTATTER         -0.34      0.46       -0.74  0.457988
FRANK_HARVEY            -0.33      0.60       -0.56  0.575863
BRYAN_KERSEY            -0.31      0.42       -0.75  0.453118
JAMES_OSTWALT           -0.27      1.06       -0.26  0.794698
MIKE_MILLIONE           -0.26      1.07       -0.25  0.805437
PETER_JUZENAS           -0.23      0.85       -0.27  0.786637
KELLY_PFEIFER           -0.23      0.61       -0.38  0.706862
JOHN_HEATLY             -0.21      0.71       -0.30   0.76453
TIM_NESTOR              -0.21      0.53       -0.40   0.69185
SCOTT_HARRIS            -0.20      0.97       -0.21   0.83336
RUSTY_PHILLIPS          -0.20      0.99       -0.20  0.839085
JB_CALDWELL             -0.19      0.79       -0.25  0.805776
BYRON_EVANS             -0.16      0.80       -0.20  0.840526
JIM_BRUNO               -0.16      0.60       -0.27  0.788376
KELLY_SELF              -0.16      0.45       -0.35  0.725851
EVON_BURROUGHS          -0.15      0.62       -0.25  0.806025
STEVE_RUPPENTHAL        -0.15      0.74       -0.20  0.840644
CHRIS_BEAVER            -0.14      0.53       -0.26  0.796592
RICK_ONEILL             -0.13      0.68       -0.19  0.849565
MARTIN_COTA             -0.12      0.73       -0.17  0.866019
JEFF_WOOTEN             -0.12      0.80       -0.15  0.885026
MIKE_PILLA              -0.11      0.97       -0.11  0.909917
JIM_BURR                -0.11      0.53       -0.20  0.843512
FRANK_SCAGLIOTTA        -0.10      1.01       -0.10  0.918974
BRET_WEGENKE            -0.09      1.02       -0.09   0.92576
LARRY_SCIROTTO          -0.07      0.47       -0.15  0.877651
MIKE_ROBERTS            -0.06      0.46       -0.14  0.892778
BRET_SMITH              -0.06      0.58       -0.10   0.91862
HAYWOOD_BOSTIC          -0.05      0.78       -0.07  0.945054
BRENT_HAMPTON           -0.05      0.46       -0.11  0.909905
DJ_CARSTENSEN           -0.04      0.52       -0.09  0.932603
GLENN_MAYBORG           -0.04      0.56       -0.07  0.941715
TERRY_OGLESBY           -0.04      0.45       -0.09  0.930488
STEVE_PYATT             -0.04      0.64       -0.06  0.950956
ROB_RORKE               -0.03      0.76       -0.03  0.973057
JEROME_HALL             -0.02      0.77       -0.02  0.981287
SAMUEL_CROFT            -0.00      0.96        0.00  0.999321
BRAD_FOWLER             +0.02      0.90        0.02  0.985686
BARRY_MATHIS            +0.02      0.81        0.03  0.979696
TONY_PADILLA            +0.04      0.47        0.09   0.93054
ROB_RILEY               +0.04      0.70        0.06  0.951511
BILL_EK                 +0.06      0.57        0.10  0.919496
DAN_DORIAN              +0.06      0.88        0.07  0.941113
TOM_ONEILL              +0.07      0.46        0.15  0.879798
DOUG_HOPPER             +0.07      0.89        0.08  0.935399
TIM_STEWART             +0.09      0.79        0.12  0.907849
RANDY_MCCALL            +0.11      0.47        0.23  0.816725
HAL_LUSK                +0.12      0.54        0.21  0.831195
MARK_WHITEHEAD          +0.13      0.43        0.30  0.763329
LIONEL_BUTLER           +0.14      0.67        0.21  0.837425
BRUCE_HICKS             +0.14      0.97        0.15  0.884499
NATHAN_FARRELL          +0.14      0.82        0.17  0.863238
TIM_GATTIS              +0.15      0.50        0.30  0.762178
ZELTON_STEED            +0.15      0.56        0.27  0.787906
BILLY_DUNLAP            +0.15      0.80        0.19  0.850234
TOM_NALLY               +0.15      0.71        0.22  0.829965
RICK_RANDALL            +0.15      0.52        0.30  0.768088
RAY_ACOSTA              +0.16      0.69        0.23  0.820988
JAMES_HICKS             +0.16      0.82        0.20  0.842417
PATRICK_EVANS           +0.18      0.60        0.30  0.767747
JEFF_NICHOLS            +0.18      0.68        0.27  0.790368
TODD_VON_SOSSAN         +0.20      0.80        0.25  0.802945
DAVE_DAVIS              +0.20      0.98        0.21  0.837234
KENNETH_CLARK           +0.20      0.73        0.28  0.779875
DENNIS_FLANNERY         +0.21      0.77        0.28  0.779669
MIKE_EADES              +0.23      0.43        0.54  0.589131
DENNIS_ALLOCCO          +0.24      0.72        0.33  0.739199
ARCHIBALD_WHALEY        +0.24      0.99        0.24  0.807118
JIM_SCHIPPER            +0.25      0.66        0.37  0.710746
TODD_WILLIAMS           +0.25      0.69        0.37  0.713949
VERNE_HARRIS            +0.27      0.48        0.56  0.575929
RICK_BATSELL            +0.27      0.59        0.46  0.648037
JUSTIN_VAN_DUYNE        +0.29      0.77        0.37  0.708476
ROB_KRUGER              +0.30      0.90        0.33  0.740644
JACYN_GOBLE             +0.30      0.79        0.38  0.702598
DAN_NOWAKOWSKI          +0.30      0.88        0.34   0.73112
TONY_HENDERSON          +0.31      0.56        0.56  0.576535
MARC_BEASLEY            +0.32      1.10        0.29  0.773286
JEREMY_MOSIER           +0.33      0.80        0.41  0.679177
MIKE_GREENSTEIN         +0.34      0.51        0.66  0.510455
TIM_KELLY               +0.34      0.49        0.70  0.487199
RALPH_BRETZ             +0.36      1.01        0.36  0.722505
TONY_GREENE             +0.36      0.48        0.77    0.4435
TIM_EBERSOLE            +0.38      0.69        0.56   0.57592
DUKE_EDSALL             +0.38      0.59        0.65  0.514722
JAMES_GRADY             +0.39      1.06        0.36  0.715792
BILL_MCCARTHY           +0.41      0.49        0.85  0.396884
JOE_LINDSAY             +0.43      0.49        0.87  0.382649
DONNIE_EPPLEY           +0.45      0.46        0.99  0.320838
GLEN_TUITT              +0.45      0.97        0.47  0.639836
FRANK_SPENCER           +0.46      0.59        0.77  0.440769
GARY_TRACY              +0.47      0.74        0.63  0.528297
KLAUS_ENDRISSAT         +0.47      0.85        0.56  0.575434
JON_STIGLIANO           +0.48      0.64        0.75  0.451596
GREG_RENNEGARBE         +0.48      0.79        0.61  0.544026
BILL_COVINGTON          +0.52      0.68        0.78  0.438126
LARRY_SPAULDING         +0.54      0.52        1.06  0.291515
WILSON_HOLLAND          +0.57      0.78        0.73  0.464944
BRENT_DUGAS             +0.59      0.75        0.78  0.433859
ERIC_CURRY              +0.59      0.47        1.27  0.204015
LES_JONES               +0.60      0.48        1.24  0.214994
JEFF_JANOSIK            +0.60      0.88        0.68  0.495097
BO_BOROSKI              +0.61      0.48        1.26  0.206689
MIKE_THIBODEAUX         +0.62      0.69        0.90   0.36958
MARK_SCHNUR             +0.63      0.59        1.06   0.29046
ANDREW_MAROTTA          +0.63      0.70        0.89  0.371358
DAVID_HALL              +0.64      0.43        1.50  0.132888
MATT_OBLAS              +0.66      0.86        0.77  0.443215
FRANK_RAPOSO            +0.67      0.85        0.79  0.432371
MIKE_STEPHENS           +0.68      0.44        1.55  0.121841
DAN_CHRISMAN            +0.68      0.85        0.80  0.423035
ROD_DIXON               +0.68      0.60        1.13  0.258771
BOB_ADAMS               +0.69      0.71        0.97  0.332981
RON_GROOVER             +0.74      0.50        1.48  0.138974
BERT_SMITH              +0.76      0.46        1.66  0.097797 .
MIKE_MCCLOSKEY          +0.78      0.81        0.96  0.335882
JOHN_HUGHES             +0.78      0.61        1.28  0.199485
WALLY_RUTECKI           +0.80      0.47        1.70  0.088504 .
JEFF_CAMPBELL           +0.81      0.72        1.11  0.265593
TERRY_MOORE             +0.85      0.78        1.09  0.274249
SIDNEY_COHEN            +0.85      0.93        0.92  0.356724
SHANNON_CAIN            +0.86      1.04        0.83   0.40788
JAMIE_LUCKIE            +0.87      0.41        2.10  0.036035 *
SEAN_CASADY             +0.88      0.63        1.39  0.163805
MIKE_STUART             +0.89      0.43        2.06  0.039351 *
TONY_CRISP              +0.90      0.70        1.29  0.198912
ANDREW_WALTON           +0.92      0.69        1.32  0.185587
BRAD_GASTON             +0.92      0.71        1.29  0.195542
JAMES_BREEDING          +0.93      0.54        1.74  0.081734 .
CJ_WASHINGTON           +0.94      0.94        1.00  0.319413
KARL_HESS               +0.95      0.40        2.34  0.019197 *
JEFF_PLUNKETT           +0.97      1.09        0.89  0.371762
WINSTON_STITH           +0.99      0.70        1.42  0.155697
DARRON_GEORGE           +1.00      0.57        1.76  0.078499 .
CASEY_MCCLELLAN         +1.01      0.87        1.16  0.246494
EARL_WALTON             +1.01      0.44        2.30  0.021314 *
CLYDE_OWENS             +1.08      1.04        1.05  0.296002
CLARENCE_ARMSTRONG      +1.09      0.49        2.23  0.025482 *
KEITH_KIMBLE            +1.10      0.48        2.31  0.021048 *
ED_HIGHTOWER            +1.10      0.75        1.46  0.144406
ROLAND_SIMMONS          +1.11      0.86        1.29  0.198442
TOBY_MARTINEZ           +1.11      0.69        1.62  0.106048
MATT_RUKASIN            +1.13      0.98        1.15    0.2491
KEVIN_OCONNELL          +1.14      0.81        1.40  0.162948
JUSTIN_PORTERFIELD      +1.17      0.81        1.44  0.151047
ALFRED_SMITH            +1.18      0.55        2.16  0.030957 *
TERRY_WYMER             +1.18      0.46        2.56  0.010504 *
KB_BURDETT              +1.21      0.86        1.41  0.158944
JOHN_GAFFNEY            +1.22      0.44        2.75  0.005963 **
PAT_ADAMS               +1.23      0.45        2.72  0.006565 **
BRUCE_BELL              +1.24      0.95        1.31  0.190617
BOB_STAFFEN             +1.25      0.58        2.16  0.030783 *
MIKE_GIARRATANO         +1.26      0.97        1.30   0.19377
DG_NELSON               +1.26      0.70        1.80  0.072236 .
DWAYNE_GLADDEN          +1.27      0.49        2.62  0.008702 **
AJ_DESAI                +1.29      0.86        1.50  0.134833
JEFF_ANDERSON           +1.31      0.42        3.13  0.001754 **
MIKE_SANZERE            +1.33      0.50        2.66  0.007859 **
CHUCK_JONES             +1.34      0.57        2.33  0.019617 *
WILLIAM_COVINGTON       +1.34      0.99        1.35  0.177293
JEFF_KETCHU             +1.38      0.91        1.53  0.126928
DAVID_WALKER            +1.39      0.99        1.40  0.162691
KERRY_SITTON            +1.40      0.70        1.99  0.047153 *
JOHN_GWYNN              +1.40      0.82        1.72  0.085494 .
JIMMY_CASAS             +1.41      0.65        2.17  0.030134 *
LESLIE_JONES            +1.41      0.91        1.54  0.122682
FRANKIE_BORDEAUX        +1.44      0.76        1.90  0.057903 .
JOSE_CARRION            +1.45      0.72        2.03  0.042677 *
HENRY_HOWARD            +1.45      1.06        1.37   0.16932
JOHNNY_WILKINS          +1.46      0.83        1.76  0.077929 .
BERNARD_CLINTON         +1.46      0.58        2.51  0.012219 *
DOUG_GRANT              +1.47      0.95        1.54  0.123484
SHAWN_LEHIGH            +1.49      0.68        2.20  0.028203 *
LEWIS_GARRISON          +1.55      0.86        1.79  0.072932 .
SCOTT_SMITH             +1.57      1.07        1.47  0.140477
MIKE_EGGERS             +1.59      0.62        2.55  0.010803 *
DAN_ANDERSON            +1.60      0.74        2.16  0.030619 *
MIKE_NANCE              +1.65      0.49        3.38  0.000725 ***
JOHN_YORKOVICH          +1.66      0.86        1.94  0.052714 .
MIKE_RAPP               +1.68      1.06        1.59  0.112853
STEVE_ANDERSON          +1.69      1.04        1.63  0.103844
MATT_LEE                +1.70      1.06        1.61  0.107251
JOHN_ST_CLAIR           +1.71      0.96        1.78  0.074664 .
TOM_SPITZNAGEL          +1.71      0.97        1.76  0.078167 .
KEVIN_MATHIS            +1.74      0.57        3.04  0.002353 **
DUANE_ALLEN             +1.78      0.92        1.94  0.053031 .
BRIAN_DORSEY            +1.79      0.42        4.28  1.92E-05 ***
BRYAN_ANSLINGER         +1.85      0.72        2.58  0.009835 **
JACKIE_SANDERS          +1.89      0.90        2.10  0.035924 *
TIM_FITZGERALD          +1.90      1.08        1.76  0.077816 .
JEFF_MALHAM             +1.93      0.72        2.66  0.007769 **
BART_LENOX              +1.95      0.82        2.37  0.017707 *
RICK_SHOULDERS          +1.95      0.98        1.98  0.047628 *
COURTNEY_HOLMES         +2.02      1.05        1.93   0.05346 .
ROD_MRAKOVICH           +2.18      0.92        2.35  0.018635 *
ART_JACKSON             +2.20      0.97        2.27  0.023218 *
GUY_PAGANO              +2.22      0.59        3.77  0.000167 ***
JERRY_HEATER            +2.32      0.50        4.65  3.39E-06 ***
PAUL_JANSSEN            +2.62      0.59        4.42  1.00E-05 ***
HORACE_SHIELDS          +2.74      0.90        3.04  0.002413 **
LEE_MARELLI             +2.87      1.10        2.62  0.008918 **
LANDON_BRANDES          +3.33      1.05        3.17  0.001534 **

Inexperienced              NA        NA          NA       NA
Overtimes               -4.02      0.32      -12.69   < 2e-16 ***
Margin                  -0.06      0.01      -10.19   < 2e-16 ***
SeasonDay               -0.02      0.00      -14.93   < 2e-16 ***
VFoulRate                1.07      0.03       35.19   < 2e-16 ***
HFoulRate                0.99      0.03       31.76   < 2e-16 ***
VOppFoulRate             0.72      0.03       21.47   < 2e-16 ***
HOppFoulRate             0.70      0.03       20.41   < 2e-16 ***
Season2015              -1.36      0.17       -8.15  4.03E-16 ***
Overtimes:Margin         0.27      0.06        4.72  2.34E-06 ***
VFoulRate:HFoulRate     -0.02      0.00      -52.76   < 2e-16 ***