Model Diagnostics

Hey, you’ve found the model diagnostics page. It provides some basic statistics on model accuracy and more stuff may get added in the future. For now, there’s mean average error for the predicted margin of victory and total score (regulation games only for that), and bias for the total score and home team margin to make sure the predictions are well calibrated. There’s also a table to illustrate the reliability of the probabilistic game predictions.

I’m not sure if any other modelers have a public page like this but they should. There’s a pretty cool page here that has data for other systems. Season-long comparisons among systems can be a little dicey since the sample of games used can vary across systems.