ADVANCED ANALYSIS OF COLLEGE BASKETBALL
| Game | Prediction | Time (ET) | Location | Thrill Score |
Come back |
Excite ment |
|---|---|---|---|---|---|---|
| 14 Gonzaga 69, 17 Oklahoma St. 68 [58] MVP: Kevin Pangos (23p/4r/5a/2s) |
Oklahoma St. 66-64 (59%) | box
win prob |
Stillwater, OK Gallagher Iba Arena |
75.2 1 |
3 |
2.16 |
| 10 Minnesota 76, 18 Michigan St. 63 [66] MVP: Andre Hollins (22p/2r/6a/2b) |
Minnesota 67-61 (72%) | box
win prob |
Minneapolis, MN Williams Arena |
66.9 2 |
5 |
1.86 |
| 1 Indiana 69, 44 Iowa 65 [75] MVP: Cody Zeller (19p/10r/1a/1b/1s) |
Indiana 78-69 (79%) | box
win prob |
Iowa City, IA Carver Hawkeye Arena |
63.5 3 |
5 |
0.51 |
| 39 Saint Louis 60, 38 New Mexico 46 [66] MVP: Cory Remekun (15p/3r/1a/3b/1s) |
Saint Louis 62-59 (64%) | box
win prob |
St. Louis, MO Chaifetz Arena |
62.3 4 |
3 |
0.49 |
| 19 Cincinnati 70, 6 Pittsburgh 61 [62] MVP: Sean Kilpatrick (16p/4r/2b) |
Pittsburgh 65-56 (81%) | box
win prob |
Pittsburgh, PA Petersen Events Center |
58.3 5 |
8 |
1.33 |
| 65 Saint Joseph's 63, 120 Drexel 49 [60] MVP: C.J. Aiken (19p/8r/2a/6b/1s) |
Saint Joseph's 64-63 (54%) | box
win prob |
Philadelphia, PA Daskalakis Athletic Center |
51.5 6 |
8 |
0.84 |
| 83 Denver 50, 107 UT Arlington 35 [53] MVP: Nate Engesser (14p) |
UT Arlington 59-58 (56%) | box
win prob |
Arlington, TX College Park Center |
49.0 7 |
4 |
0.82 |
| 96 Iona 93, 80 St. Bonaventure 74 [74] MVP: Sean Armand (27p/5r/5a/1b/2s) |
St. Bonaventure 83-76 (70%) | box
win prob |
St. Bonaventure, NY Reilly Center |
48.6 8 |
3 |
1.29 |
| 45 Saint Mary's 70, 87 Harvard 69 [61] MVP: Mitchell Young (16p/8r/2a) |
Saint Mary's 76-67 (79%) | box
win prob |
Moraga, CA McKeon Pavilion |
44.1 9 |
18 ·33· |
1.55 |
| 102 Louisiana Tech 81, 123 New Mexico St. 72 [71] MVP: Alex Hamilton (20p/1r/3a/1s) |
Louisiana Tech 71-66 (69%) | box
win prob |
Ruston, LA Thomas Assembly Center |
41.7 10 |
1 |
1.52 |
| 128 College of Charleston 85, 242 Marist 75 [72] MVP: Andrew Lawrence (22p/5r/4a/1s) |
College of Charleston 64-61 (63%) | box
win prob |
Poughkeepsie, NY McCann Center |
33.5 11 |
2 |
0.98 |
| 130 Utah St. 81, 265 Texas St. 57 [68] MVP: Spencer Butterfield (18p/6r/9a/1s) |
Utah St. 76-71 (69%) | box
win prob |
San Marcos, TX Strahan Coliseum |
31.4 12 |
3 |
0.01 |
| 213 San Jose St. 80, 215 UTSA 67 [60] MVP: Chris Cunningham (19p/8r/3a/1b) |
UTSA 68-64 (64%) | box
win prob |
San Antonio, TX UTSA Convocation Center |
31.4 13 |
1 |
1.40 |
| 307 Jacksonville 53, 246 Northern Kentucky 51 [56] MVP: Jarvis Haywood (8p/9r/5a/1b) |
Northern Kentucky 66-65 (55%) | box
win prob |
Jacksonville, FL Jacksonville Veterans Memorial |
28.8 14 |
5 |
2.46 |
| 135 Delaware 73, 211 Rider 66 [69] MVP: Jamelle Hagins (14p/16r/3b) |
Delaware 73-65 (77%) | box
win prob |
Newark, DE Bob Carpenter Center |
28.2 15 |
6 |
1.55 |
| 313 Fairleigh Dickinson 79, 344 Longwood 71 [75] MVP: Kinu Rochford (32p/11r/2a/1b) |
Fairleigh Dickinson 79-76 (60%) | box
win prob |
Farmville, VA Willett Hall |
28.2 16 |
6 |
0.77 |
| 341 Nebraska Omaha 77, 300 UMKC 65 [72] MVP: C.J. Carter (26p/4r/4a) |
UMKC 72-68 (63%) | box
win prob |
Ralston, NE Ralston Sports & Event Center |
26.1 17 |
1 |
0.77 |
| 35 Oregon 56, 164 Nevada 43 [65] MVP: Carlos Emory (13p/7r/1a/2b/1s) |
Oregon 82-66 (91%) | box
win prob |
Eugene, OR Matthew Knight Arena |
26.0 18 |
0 |
-0.09 |
| 187 North Florida 84, 244 Lipscomb 70 [71] MVP: Travis Wallace (24p/8r/3a/1b) |
North Florida 76-68 (76%) | box
win prob |
Jacksonville, FL UNF Arena |
25.9 19 |
6 |
1.88 |
| 203 Jacksonville St. 64, 320 Tennessee Martin 54 [63] MVP: Tarvin Gaines (23p/5r/1b/3s) |
Jacksonville St. 65-60 (71%) | box
win prob |
Martin, TN Skyhawk Arena |
24.1 20 |
2 |
0.31 |
| 64 Temple 75, 190 Bowling Green 57 [66] MVP: A`uston Calhoun (22p/9r/1s) |
Temple 69-57 (88%) | box
win prob |
Philadelphia, PA Liacouras Center |
23.4 21 |
2 |
-0.22 |
| 40 Middle Tennessee 75, 177 North Texas 57 [64] MVP: Tony Mitchell (13p/11r/2a/2b/2s) |
Middle Tennessee 73-58 (91%) | box
win prob |
Murfreesboro, TN Murphy Athletic Center |
23.2 22 |
0 |
-0.21 |
| 248 Fordham 82, 301 Monmouth 71 [73] MVP: Bryan Smith (18p/5r/5a/2s) |
Fordham 77-68 (78%) | box
win prob |
New York, NY Rose Hill Gym |
21.3 23 |
7 |
1.49 |
| 144 Mercer 70, 263 Stetson 64 [67] MVP: Travis Smith (25p/1r/2a/1s) |
Mercer 74-62 (85%) | box
win prob |
Macon, GA University Center |
19.1 24 |
5 |
1.20 |
| 206 Army 95, 337 Houston Baptist 86 [80] MVP: Ella Ellis (26p/3r/2a) |
Army 73-63 (81%) | box
win prob |
Houston, TX Sharp Gymnasium |
18.5 25 |
6 |
0.84 |
| 181 Albany 57, 277 Brown 50 [64] MVP: Luke Devlin (15p/2r/1s) |
Albany 69-59 (84%) | box
win prob |
Guilderland, NY SEFCU Arena |
18.4 26 |
4 |
1.31 |
| 8 Syracuse 96, 207 Central Connecticut 62 [77] MVP: Michael Carter-Williams (18p/9r/13a/2s) |
Syracuse 90-63 (98%) | box
win prob |
Syracuse, NY Carrier Dome |
17.6 27 |
3 |
-0.52 |
| 240 Texas Tech 70, 325 Florida A&M 56 [78] MVP: Josh Gray (10p/2r/4a/1b/4s) |
Texas Tech 84-70 (86%) | box
win prob |
Lubbock, TX United Spirit Arena |
16.6 28 |
8 |
0.27 |
| 116 Florida Gulf Coast 68, 326 Kennesaw St. 59 [63] MVP: Sherwood Brown (19p/5r/2a/2s) |
Florida Gulf Coast 72-60 (86%) | box
win prob |
Kennesaw, GA KSU Convocation Center |
16.5 29 |
5 |
0.20 |
| 166 Boston College 79, 291 Dartmouth 58 [62] MVP: Joe Rahon (24p/3r/5a/1s) |
Boston College 67-56 (87%) | box
win prob |
Chestnut Hill, MA Conte Forum |
15.6 30 |
6 |
0.25 |
| 27 N.C. State 89, 261 UNC Greensboro 68 [69] MVP: Lorenzo Brown (15p/3r/9a/1b/3s) |
N.C. State 100-72 (97%) | box
win prob |
Raleigh, NC PNC Arena |
15.0 31 |
3 |
-0.46 |
| 317 Liberty 63, 196 Western Carolina 62 [67] MVP: Trey Sumler (23p/3r/4a/3s) |
Western Carolina 75-61 (89%) | box
win prob |
Cullowhee, NC Ramsey Center |
14.2 32 |
4 |
2.49 |
| 48 Kansas St. 70, 256 South Dakota 50 [66] MVP: Nino Williams (16p/7r/1a) |
Kansas St. 81-60 (96%) | box
win prob |
Manhattan, KS Fred Bramlage Coliseum |
14.0 33 |
0 |
-0.40 |
| 112 Oregon St. 84, 322 Texas Pan American 59 [65] MVP: Joe Burton (18p/10r/7a/1s) |
Oregon St. 81-61 (95%) | box
win prob |
Corvallis, OR Gill Coliseum |
10.8 34 |
0 |
-0.48 |
| 330 Chicago St. 58, 153 Toledo 53 [60] MVP: Jamere Dismukes (19p/4r/3a/3s) |
Toledo 80-60 (95%) | box
win prob |
Toledo, OH Savage Arena |
10.1 35 |
8 |
0.97 |
| 75 Oklahoma 72, 318 Texas A&M Corpus Chris 42 [67] MVP: Amath M`Baye (14p/6r/1a/1b/1s) |
Oklahoma 78-56 (97%) | box
win prob |
Norman, OK Lloyd Noble Center |
9.7 36 |
0 |
-0.56 |
| 284 Central Arkansas 107, NR Central Baptist 82 [84] MVP: Jarvis Garner (38p/11r/4a/1s) |
box
|
Conway, AR Farris Center |
0.0 37 |
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|
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| 193 Northwestern St. 102, NR LeTourneau 52 [79] MVP: Jalan West (13p/3r/3a/4s) |
box
|
Natchitoches, LA Prather Coliseum |
0.0 37 |
|
|
|
| 155 Elon 84, NR Manchester 49 [71] MVP: Ryley Beaumont (11p/12r/3a/1b/2s) |
box
|
Elon, NC Alumni Gym |
0.0 37 |
|
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| 63 Southern Miss 89, NR William Carey 59 [74] MVP: Jonathan Mills (19p/11r/1a/1b/2s) |
box
|
Hattiesburg, MS Reed Green Coliseum |
0.0 37 |
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| Lines o' the night: | ||||||
| 1. Kinu Rochford, Fairleigh Dickinson • 32 pts (12-13 2's, 8-11 FT's) • 11 Rebs • 2 Assists • 1 Blk | ||||||
| 2. Joe Rahon, Boston College • 24 pts (1-2 2's, 6-6 3's, 4-4 FT's) • 5 Assists • 3 Rebs • 1 Stl | ||||||
| Note: Rankings shown for each team are for the date the game was played | ||||||
| Mean absolute error of predicted margin of victory today: 8.2 • Record of favorites today: 27-9 (expected: 28-8) • Exact MOV was predicted in 1 of 36 games | ||||||
| Mean absolute error of predicted total score today: 14.5 • Bias of predicted total score: +3.7 • Model Diagnostics | ||||||
| Today's stats (D-I vs D-I only): Points per game: 66.8 • Average efficiency: 99.9 • Possessions per 40 minutes: 66.8 | ||||||