{"id":619,"date":"2007-02-09T05:00:01","date_gmt":"2007-02-09T11:00:01","guid":{"rendered":"http:\/\/67.227.157.91\/~kenpom\/wp_blog\/should-charlie-burgess-have-saved-the-ball\/"},"modified":"2007-02-09T05:00:01","modified_gmt":"2007-02-09T11:00:01","slug":"should-charlie-burgess-have-saved-the-ball","status":"publish","type":"post","link":"https:\/\/kenpom.com\/blog\/should-charlie-burgess-have-saved-the-ball\/","title":{"rendered":"Should Charlie Burgess Have Saved the Ball?"},"content":{"rendered":"<p>For those that missed it on Tuesday night, Texas Tech suffered a heartbreaking loss to Nebraska. After the Red Raiders played flawless defense on the final possession of the game, a rebound on a Marcus Perry missed 3-pointer headed for the sideline. Tech&#8217;s Charlie Burgess leapt out of bounds for it, attempted to call timeout in mid-air, realized that doesn&#8217;t work any more and then saved the ball in bounds. <\/p>\n<p>Actually, he didn&#8217;t save it &#8211; replays showed he planted a foot out of bounds before releasing the ball &#8211; but play continued and Nebraska&#8217;s Charles Richardson grabbed the ball and after a dribble, drained a 20-footer to beat the buzzer and give the Huskers a 61-59 win. <\/p>\n<p>Now I&#8217;ve always heard you don&#8217;t save the ball blindly onto your own end of the court, and I&#8217;ve always disagreed with it. The choice is to eat the ball and let Nebraska inbound it, or essentially inbound it yourself, if awkwardly, and have a decent chance of a teammate securing possession. And even if the opponent gets it, what&#8217;s their chance of scoring? In retrospect, it would have been nice for him not to save it. But if you do some back-of-the-napkin calculations, I think you&#8217;ll come to the conclusion that unless you&#8217;re feeding the opponent into a lay-up, it&#8217;s better from a percentage standpoint to try and save it.<\/p>\n<p>Of course, as <a href=\"http:\/\/www.dfw.com\/mld\/dfw\/sports\/colleges\/16642147.htm\">Bob Knight pointed out<\/a>, it would have been best to something else. <\/p>\n<blockquote>\n<p>As I look back, it would have been great if [Burgess] had just gotten it and thrown it up in the air, and then the game is over.<\/p>\n<\/blockquote>\n<p>I also had to reprint this comment from Nebraska coach Doc Sadler, who briefly gives us the truth.<\/p>\n<blockquote>\n<p>The last play was just luck. But we stuck in there to have a chance. That&#8217;s not luck. That&#8217;s just a team playing hard.<\/p>\n<\/blockquote>\n<p>It was luck, yet it wasn&#8217;t. How deep.<\/p>\n<p>On a Texas Tech-related matter, I had totally forgotten about my original <a href=\"http:\/\/kenpom.com\/blog\/game-plan\/\">Game Plan<\/a> post where I posited that we should see what happens in the January 31 game where Texas visited Texas Tech. As it turned out, the game went according to Game Plan form. <a href=\"http:\/\/www.texassports.com\/doc_lib\/000_stats\/mbb\/2006_07\/jan31.htm\">Texas didn&#8217;t turn the ball over<\/a>, had a nice offensive night, and won by more than the &#8220;experts&#8221; thought. It was only one game, and I&#8217;m not going to say that&#8217;s the basis for elevating Game Plan to some sort of amazing predictive tool, but it was nice to look back and see that things worked out.<\/p>\n<p>On an unrelated matter, I&#8217;d like to rescind yesterday&#8217;s pick for game of the weekend and switch it to Florida\/Kentucky. I don&#8217;t talk about the SEC enough, but I just wrapped up the stats package I prepared for ESPN, and let&#8217;s just say there is a high probability of an upset. (I guess if the probability gets too high, it&#8217;s not an upset anymore, but it&#8217;s not <i>that<\/i> high.)<\/p>\n<p>Kentucky at home is not too much worse than Florida on the road, and Florida&#8217;s 3-point shooting has been at unsustainable levels recently even with all the wide-open looks they get. Kentucky&#8217;s D encourages the 3, and has the size in the backcourt to close out on the shooters better than other SEC clubs. So I&#8217;m expecting a defensive struggle in this one. It should be a close game, but for the opposite reason that Arizona\/Oregon should be.<\/p>\n","protected":false},"excerpt":{"rendered":"<p>For those that missed it on Tuesday night, Texas Tech suffered a heartbreaking loss to Nebraska. After the Red Raiders played flawless defense on the final possession of the game, a rebound on a Marcus Perry missed 3-pointer headed for the sideline. Tech&#8217;s Charlie Burgess leapt out of bounds for it, attempted to call timeout [&hellip;]<\/p>\n","protected":false},"author":1,"featured_media":0,"comment_status":"closed","ping_status":"closed","sticky":false,"template":"","format":"standard","meta":[],"categories":[1],"tags":[],"_links":{"self":[{"href":"https:\/\/kenpom.com\/blog\/wp-json\/wp\/v2\/posts\/619"}],"collection":[{"href":"https:\/\/kenpom.com\/blog\/wp-json\/wp\/v2\/posts"}],"about":[{"href":"https:\/\/kenpom.com\/blog\/wp-json\/wp\/v2\/types\/post"}],"author":[{"embeddable":true,"href":"https:\/\/kenpom.com\/blog\/wp-json\/wp\/v2\/users\/1"}],"replies":[{"embeddable":true,"href":"https:\/\/kenpom.com\/blog\/wp-json\/wp\/v2\/comments?post=619"}],"version-history":[{"count":0,"href":"https:\/\/kenpom.com\/blog\/wp-json\/wp\/v2\/posts\/619\/revisions"}],"wp:attachment":[{"href":"https:\/\/kenpom.com\/blog\/wp-json\/wp\/v2\/media?parent=619"}],"wp:term":[{"taxonomy":"category","embeddable":true,"href":"https:\/\/kenpom.com\/blog\/wp-json\/wp\/v2\/categories?post=619"},{"taxonomy":"post_tag","embeddable":true,"href":"https:\/\/kenpom.com\/blog\/wp-json\/wp\/v2\/tags?post=619"}],"curies":[{"name":"wp","href":"https:\/\/api.w.org\/{rel}","templated":true}]}}