Several people, including myself, have noted that the log5 prediction formula doesn’t account for the situation of a fatigued team having to play a fresh team. It seems like a plausible idea, but looking at yesterday’s action, the jury’s still out. <\/p>\n
The predictions below are based on yesterday’s ratings involving games where only one team had played the day before. And while only two wins were predicted for the fatigued bunch, we’d expect about five based on the sum of the win percentages. In aggregate, fatigued teams slightly underperformed, winning two or three fewer games than expected (although two of the fatigued winners were very unexpected). However, the average score wasn’t much different than expected. <\/p>\n
I’ll update this for the 15 games that fall into this category today.<\/p>\n
Fatigued Team Rested Team Pred Outcome<\/b>\nVillanova Georgetown L,61-65(33%) L,57-62\nSyracuse Notre Dame L,78-80(42%) L,83-89\nWest Virginia Louisville L,64-66(38%) L,71-82 2OT\nMarquette Pitt L,64-67(36%) L,79-89\n\nCal UCLA L,59-71(10%) W,76-69 OT\nWashington Washington St. L,63-67(34%) L,64-74\n\nDayton Xavier L,64-75(15%) L,51-72\nFordham Rhode Island W,69-68(52%) L,69-73\nSt. Louis UMass L,62-69(23%) W,74-71 OT\nSt. Joseph's George Wash. L,63-65(44%) L,48-58\n\nE. Michgan Toledo L,62-72(16%) L,54-62\nOhio Miami L,60-61(44%) L,51-70\nC. Michigan Akron L,60-75( 5%) L,53-82\nW. Michigan Kent St. L,65-69(34%) L,66-75\n\nRice Central Fla. L,61-79( 5%) W,53-51\nSouthern Miss Houston L,68-70(43%) L,59-62\nMarshall Memphis L,58-82( 2%) L,71-92\nTulsa Tulane W,69-66(64%) L,56-58\n\nWins 5.4 3\nAvg Score 64-70 63-71<\/b><\/pre>\n<\/p>\n","protected":false},"excerpt":{"rendered":"
Several people, including myself, have noted that the log5 prediction formula doesn’t account for the situation of a fatigued team having to play a fresh team. It seems like a plausible idea, but looking at yesterday’s action, the jury’s still out. The predictions below are based on yesterday’s ratings involving games where only one team […]<\/p>\n","protected":false},"author":1,"featured_media":0,"comment_status":"closed","ping_status":"closed","sticky":false,"template":"","format":"standard","meta":[],"categories":[1],"tags":[],"_links":{"self":[{"href":"https:\/\/kenpom.com\/blog\/wp-json\/wp\/v2\/posts\/604"}],"collection":[{"href":"https:\/\/kenpom.com\/blog\/wp-json\/wp\/v2\/posts"}],"about":[{"href":"https:\/\/kenpom.com\/blog\/wp-json\/wp\/v2\/types\/post"}],"author":[{"embeddable":true,"href":"https:\/\/kenpom.com\/blog\/wp-json\/wp\/v2\/users\/1"}],"replies":[{"embeddable":true,"href":"https:\/\/kenpom.com\/blog\/wp-json\/wp\/v2\/comments?post=604"}],"version-history":[{"count":0,"href":"https:\/\/kenpom.com\/blog\/wp-json\/wp\/v2\/posts\/604\/revisions"}],"wp:attachment":[{"href":"https:\/\/kenpom.com\/blog\/wp-json\/wp\/v2\/media?parent=604"}],"wp:term":[{"taxonomy":"category","embeddable":true,"href":"https:\/\/kenpom.com\/blog\/wp-json\/wp\/v2\/categories?post=604"},{"taxonomy":"post_tag","embeddable":true,"href":"https:\/\/kenpom.com\/blog\/wp-json\/wp\/v2\/tags?post=604"}],"curies":[{"name":"wp","href":"https:\/\/api.w.org\/{rel}","templated":true}]}}