{"id":545,"date":"2010-04-13T23:10:10","date_gmt":"2010-04-14T05:10:10","guid":{"rendered":"http:\/\/67.227.157.91\/~kenpom\/wp_blog\/a-bad-game-for-wp\/"},"modified":"2010-04-13T23:10:10","modified_gmt":"2010-04-14T05:10:10","slug":"a-bad-game-for-wp","status":"publish","type":"post","link":"https:\/\/kenpom.com\/blog\/a-bad-game-for-wp\/","title":{"rendered":"A bad game for WP"},"content":{"rendered":"

The 2010 title game was pretty boring from a win probability<\/a> perspective. So much so, that I questioned whether my code was working correctly<\/a> at halftime of my live WP experiment. As it turned out, I almost picked the worst possible game for semi-live win probability to make its debut. <\/p>\n

It seemed unusual for a game to played entirely within an eight-point range. Duke led by no more than 6 points and Butler by no more than two for the entire game. That got me to thinking about how that stacked up with the 5700+ other games played last season.<\/p>\n

Theoretically, a game must have at least a three-point range (assuming there\u2019s a made three-pointer in the game). But there\u2019s not much room between the eight-point range seen in the title game and the theoretical minimum. <\/p>\n

So how many games had a smaller scoring range last season? Just one, actually. This November affair<\/a> between Nebraska and USC was played entirely between Nebraska +3 and USC +4. There were ten other games that stayed within a range of eight. Notable among them was this gem<\/a> between Iowa State and Missouri, won by the Tigers in OT. It was the only game besides the Nebraska\/USC contest where the maximum lead by either team was four.<\/p>\n

The main point here is that win probability is not terribly useful when a solid (but not heavy) favorite is involved in a game where their lead barely changes throughout the game. <\/p>\n","protected":false},"excerpt":{"rendered":"

The 2010 title game was pretty boring from a win probability perspective. So much so, that I questioned whether my code was working correctly at halftime of my live WP experiment. As it turned out, I almost picked the worst possible game for semi-live win probability to make its debut. It seemed unusual for a […]<\/p>\n","protected":false},"author":1,"featured_media":0,"comment_status":"closed","ping_status":"closed","sticky":false,"template":"","format":"standard","meta":[],"categories":[1],"tags":[],"_links":{"self":[{"href":"https:\/\/kenpom.com\/blog\/wp-json\/wp\/v2\/posts\/545"}],"collection":[{"href":"https:\/\/kenpom.com\/blog\/wp-json\/wp\/v2\/posts"}],"about":[{"href":"https:\/\/kenpom.com\/blog\/wp-json\/wp\/v2\/types\/post"}],"author":[{"embeddable":true,"href":"https:\/\/kenpom.com\/blog\/wp-json\/wp\/v2\/users\/1"}],"replies":[{"embeddable":true,"href":"https:\/\/kenpom.com\/blog\/wp-json\/wp\/v2\/comments?post=545"}],"version-history":[{"count":0,"href":"https:\/\/kenpom.com\/blog\/wp-json\/wp\/v2\/posts\/545\/revisions"}],"wp:attachment":[{"href":"https:\/\/kenpom.com\/blog\/wp-json\/wp\/v2\/media?parent=545"}],"wp:term":[{"taxonomy":"category","embeddable":true,"href":"https:\/\/kenpom.com\/blog\/wp-json\/wp\/v2\/categories?post=545"},{"taxonomy":"post_tag","embeddable":true,"href":"https:\/\/kenpom.com\/blog\/wp-json\/wp\/v2\/tags?post=545"}],"curies":[{"name":"wp","href":"https:\/\/api.w.org\/{rel}","templated":true}]}}