{"id":530,"date":"2010-12-02T02:00:03","date_gmt":"2010-12-02T08:00:03","guid":{"rendered":"http:\/\/67.227.157.91\/~kenpom\/wp_blog\/prediction-tracker\/"},"modified":"2010-12-02T02:00:03","modified_gmt":"2010-12-02T08:00:03","slug":"prediction-tracker","status":"publish","type":"post","link":"https:\/\/kenpom.com\/blog\/prediction-tracker\/","title":{"rendered":"Prediction tracker"},"content":{"rendered":"<p>Here at kenpom.com, we care deeply about how well our predictions do. It\u2019s one thing to say <a href=\"http:\/\/www.thepredictiontracker.com\/bbresults.php\">you\u2019ve picked 76% of winners<\/a>, but that\u2019s a meaningless statistic, especially in a sport with as many mismatches as college hoops. <\/p>\n<p>That\u2019s why this season we are tracking the performance of our forecasts. Eventually, we\u2019ll use this information to calibrate the model a little better. I think people that follow this stuff closely understand that the percentages given to winning in my system are a little too aggressive. (For this reason, I water down the initial chance of winning in the win probability graphs.) But I won\u2019t know how much until I aggregate the performance of predictions over the course of the season.<\/p>\n<p>Here\u2019s the breakdown on predictions through Tuesday\u2019s games. <\/p>\n<pre><u>Prediction<\/u>    <u>W-L<\/u>    <u>Pct<\/u>\n  50-55%     38-32  .543\n  56-60%     34-29  .540\n  61-65%     38-28  .576\n  66-70%     56-24  .700\n  71-75%     50-24  .676\n  76-80%     51-13  .797\n  81-85%     67-17  .798\n  86-90%     67-19  .779\n  91-95%    130-5   .963\n   96+%     194-5   .975\n<\/pre>\n<p>Ideally, predictions of a win chance of X% should hit X% of the time. Based on that, the predictions are holding up fairly well which to me means the pre-season ratings were well worth it. Actually, the pre-season ratings have helped keep the predictions from being too aggressive early in the season. Of course, I am pre-conditioned to want my choice to use pre-season ratings to be justified, so take my opinion in that context. <\/p>\n<p>The top upset so far has been Texas Southern over Oregon State, where the Tigers cashed in on a 2.1% chance for victory. Undoubtedly, there are bigger shockers to come. (<a href=\"http:\/\/twitter.com\/goodmanonfox\/status\/10154691052707840\">No, a team with a 43% chance to win doesn&#8217;t qualify<\/a>.)<\/p>\n<p>&nbsp;<\/p>\n","protected":false},"excerpt":{"rendered":"<p>Here at kenpom.com, we care deeply about how well our predictions do. It\u2019s one thing to say you\u2019ve picked 76% of winners, but that\u2019s a meaningless statistic, especially in a sport with as many mismatches as college hoops. That\u2019s why this season we are tracking the performance of our forecasts. Eventually, we\u2019ll use this information [&hellip;]<\/p>\n","protected":false},"author":1,"featured_media":0,"comment_status":"closed","ping_status":"closed","sticky":false,"template":"","format":"standard","meta":[],"categories":[1],"tags":[],"_links":{"self":[{"href":"https:\/\/kenpom.com\/blog\/wp-json\/wp\/v2\/posts\/530"}],"collection":[{"href":"https:\/\/kenpom.com\/blog\/wp-json\/wp\/v2\/posts"}],"about":[{"href":"https:\/\/kenpom.com\/blog\/wp-json\/wp\/v2\/types\/post"}],"author":[{"embeddable":true,"href":"https:\/\/kenpom.com\/blog\/wp-json\/wp\/v2\/users\/1"}],"replies":[{"embeddable":true,"href":"https:\/\/kenpom.com\/blog\/wp-json\/wp\/v2\/comments?post=530"}],"version-history":[{"count":0,"href":"https:\/\/kenpom.com\/blog\/wp-json\/wp\/v2\/posts\/530\/revisions"}],"wp:attachment":[{"href":"https:\/\/kenpom.com\/blog\/wp-json\/wp\/v2\/media?parent=530"}],"wp:term":[{"taxonomy":"category","embeddable":true,"href":"https:\/\/kenpom.com\/blog\/wp-json\/wp\/v2\/categories?post=530"},{"taxonomy":"post_tag","embeddable":true,"href":"https:\/\/kenpom.com\/blog\/wp-json\/wp\/v2\/tags?post=530"}],"curies":[{"name":"wp","href":"https:\/\/api.w.org\/{rel}","templated":true}]}}