As each conference gets started with games by Saturday, it\u2019s a good time to look at who is likely to win each of the 32 D-I leagues. I\u2019ve run the season 10,000 times using the current ratings and then recorded how many times each team finished at the top of its conference. If teams shared the top spot, I gave them the appropriate fraction for that trial. (Because of these fractions and the rounding I do at the end, totals for each conference may not add up to exactly 10,000. Also, some teams can be listed as having zero titles because they were involved in a single multi-team tie for the top spot.)<\/p>\n
The count listed for the favorite is going to be somewhat inflated since it assumes that the team\u2019s current rating will remain constant for the remainder of the season. But everyone\u2019s level of play is going to change, and it\u2019s more likely that one of the three or four contenders in each conference will improve than it is for the favorite itself to improve.<\/p>\n
What follows is the list of teams that won at least one simulation for each conference season. This is presented in order of least to most competitive races. This is Part 1. Part 2 will contain the more interesting races. <\/p>\n
32. ACC<\/b><\/p>\n No surprise here, as Duke has basically lived up to early expectations and whoever was going to challenge Duke hasn\u2019t. <\/p>\n 31. Pac 10<\/b><\/p>\n Washington appears to be the best team in the league, and by virtue of escaping the SoCal road trip with a 2-0 record the Huskies significantly increased their chances of winning the conference. Then Arizona went and lost at Oregon State, nearly clinching it for the Huskies.<\/p>\n 30. WAC<\/b><\/p>\n I have to admit that I\u2019ve been thinking Boise State had a legit chance to steal the top seed in the WAC. Utah State has looked sluggish in winning its two WAC home games to start conference play. But apparently, it\u2019s a little early for Bronco fans to dream big.<\/p>\n 29. Atlantic Sun<\/b><\/p>\n Belmont\u2019s three losses have included competitive defeats at Tennessee (twice) and at Vanderbilt. They’ve mostly taken care of business in other games against weaker competition and sport a healthy 9% chance to run the A-Sun table, which is impressive considering it\u2019s a 20 game slate.<\/p>\n 28. Big Ten<\/b><\/p>\n While the Big Ten is more top-heavy that people give it credit for (at least, relative to the Big East), it is *really* top-heavy at the very top.<\/p>\n 27. Big 12<\/b><\/p>\n Somewhat surprisingly, Nebraska has the seventh-best chance of gaining the top seed. The Huskers have yet to play a true road game, which in today\u2019s world is enough for analysts to disregard them. But you heard it here first – Nebraska will apply a \u201cbad loss\u201d to at least one team in the Big 12 hierarchy.<\/p>\n 26. Summit League<\/b><\/p>\n Most teams in the Summit have played four of their 18 conference games already. Oakland played a famously difficult non-conference schedule to start the season – it ranked 5th hardest in my system – but has had no problem starting 4-0 in conference.<\/p>\n 25. Southland<\/b><\/p>\n The Southland has yet to play a conference game and so all kinds of possibilities exist. Most of them involve SFA and its nation-leading defensive turnover percentage winning the league.<\/p>\n 24. Big Sky<\/b><\/p>\n The Griz have the road win over UCLA which was widely assumed to be evidence that UCLA is no good this season. However, the Bruins have not been a pushover at home when healthy, so maybe we should give Montana a bit more respect.<\/p>\n 23. Horizon<\/b><\/p>\n This is the closest thing to a two-team race in the nation – only 53 simulations have a team other than Butler or Cleveland State winning the title and receiving the honor of hosting the conference tourney. Even with Cleveland State already having two more wins than Butler, the Dawgs are still a substantial favorite.<\/p>\n 22. Great West<\/b><\/p>\n The GWC tournament is essentially meaningless since there is no auto-bid to the NCAA tournament on the line. But the regular-season champ does get a bid to the CIT.<\/p>\n 21. Big West<\/b><\/p>\n Long Beach State has already beaten UCSB on the road. Thus, they\u2019ve assumed the clear favorite role.<\/p>\n 20. Big South<\/b><\/p>\n If Coastal stumbles, the conference is up for grabs. (Seriously, this is the only interesting thing I can say about the Big South.)<\/p>\n 19. SEC<\/b><\/p>\n This analysis assumes the best record gets the one-seed, even though the divisional structure essentially produces co-one seeds. Vandy has put itself in the position of being a plausible contrarian pick heading into conference play.<\/p>\n 18. Patriot<\/b><\/p>\n Bucknell boosted its profile nicely by beating Richmond on the road yesterday. <\/p>\n 17. WCC<\/b><\/p>\nDuke 9381 \nNorth Carolina 288\nFlorida St. 147\nMaryland 96\nVirginia Tech 54\nBoston College 23\nClemson 8\nMiami FL 4\n<\/pre>\n
Washington 9122\nArizona 672\nWashington St. 90\nSouthern California 82 \nUCLA 30\nStanford 2\nCalifornia 1\nOregon St. 0\n<\/pre>\n
Utah St. 9052 \nBoise St. 901\nNew Mexico St. 32\nNevada 12\nIdaho 2\nFresno St. 0\n<\/pre>\n
Belmont 9019\nLipscomb 468\nJacksonville 330\nEast Tennessee St. 163\nCampbell 19\n<\/pre>\n
Ohio St. 8791 \nPurdue 943\nIllinois 98\nMichigan St. 94\nWisconsin 74 \nNorthwestern 0\n<\/pre>\n
Kansas 8352\nTexas 554\nBaylor 416\nMissouri 342\nTexas A&M 240\nKansas St. 53\nNebraska 24\nIowa St. 14\nOklahoma St. 5\nColorado 0\n<\/pre>\n
Oakland 8247\nSouth Dakota St. 811\nIUPU Fort Wayne 416\nIUPUI 251\nOral Roberts 217\nNorth Dakota St. 58\n<\/pre>\n
Stephen F. Austin 8165\nSam Houston St. 989\nNicholls St. 731\nMcNeese St. 78\nTexas San Antonio 20\nLamar 6\nTexas St. 4 \nNorthwestern St. 3\nTexas Arlington 2\nSoutheastern Louisiana 2\nTexas A&M Corpus Chris 1\n<\/pre>\n
Montana 7951 \nNorthern Colorado 871\nNorthern Arizona 810\nMontana St. 249\nWeber St. 115\nPortland St. 4\nEastern Washington 0\n<\/pre>\n
Butler 7861\nCleveland St. 2085\nValparaiso 32\nWright St. 18\nLoyola Chicago 2\nDetroit 1\n<\/pre>\n
South Dakota 7808 \nUtah Valley 1691 \nTexas Pan American 394\nNorth Dakota 73\nHouston Baptist 18\nNJ Inst of Technology 16\n<\/pre>\n
Long Beach St. 7308\nUC Santa Barbara 1596\nPacific 970\nUC Davis 55\nUC Irvine 51\nCal St. Northridge 8\nCal St. Fullerton 7\nCal Poly 5\n<\/pre>\n
Coastal Carolina 7165 \nCharleston Southern 872\nVirginia Military Inst 663 \nLiberty 654\nWinthrop 473\nPresbyterian 138\nNC Asheville 33\nHigh Point 1\nGardner Webb 0\n<\/pre>\n
Kentucky 6348 \nVanderbilt 2750\n\u2028Florida 563\nMississippi 128\nAlabama 109\nTennessee 62\nArkansas 38\nGeorgia 2\nSouth Carolina 0\n<\/pre>\n
\nBucknell 6328\n\u2028American 2433\nLehigh 1076\nHoly Cross 88\nLafayette 51\nArmy 22\nNavy 2<\/pre>\n
St. Mary's 6099\n\u2028Gonzaga 3655\nPortland 234\nSanta Clara 11\nLoyola Marymount 1\n<\/pre>\n