{"id":524,"date":"2011-01-04T02:43:07","date_gmt":"2011-01-04T08:43:07","guid":{"rendered":"http:\/\/67.227.157.91\/~kenpom\/wp_blog\/preconference-preview-blowout-part-2\/"},"modified":"2011-01-04T02:43:07","modified_gmt":"2011-01-04T08:43:07","slug":"preconference-preview-blowout-part-2","status":"publish","type":"post","link":"https:\/\/kenpom.com\/blog\/preconference-preview-blowout-part-2\/","title":{"rendered":"Pre-conference preview blowout: part 2"},"content":{"rendered":"

(Ed. note: simulations run for the Pre-Conference Preview Blowout do not include Monday’s action. Nor does any of the text.)<\/p>\n

This is part 2 of the Pre-Conference Preview Blowout<\/a>, where I preview conference races by simulating them 10,000 times using my ratings. In this edition we find that Duquesne is sneaky good and you should pay attention to them. I’ll check back on this as the season winds down to see where I screwed up.<\/p>\n

16. MEAC<\/b><\/p>\n

Hampton                6015\nMorgan St.             2811\nDelaware St.            781\nCoppin St.              155\nBethune Cookman         126\nNorth Carolina A&T       95\nSouth Carolina St.       13\nHoward                    2\nNorfolk St.               4\n<\/pre>\n
There’s a new sheriff in the MEAC and its name is Hampton. Or at least it could be if this analysis is worth anything.<\/p>\n
15. A-10<\/b><\/p>\n
Temple                 5495\nRichmond               2714\nDuquesne               1102\nXavier                  403\nRhode Island            114\nMassachusetts            80\nDayton                   76\nSt. Louis                 7\nLa Salle                  5\nSt. Bonaventure           2\nCharlotte                 0\n<\/pre>\n
Let’s keep an eye on the Dukes over the next two weeks. Ron Everhart’s team doesn’t have the quality wins that would get his team some attention from the “Who have they beaten?” patrol, but his team has turned in nothing but quality performances this season. Maybe I am overrating them. But maybe I am not. I never would have given a second thought about them winning the A-10 without doing this analysis, but it doesn’t seem crazy. At the very least, expect them to screw up somebody’s tourney hopes.<\/p>\n
14. SWAC<\/b><\/p>\n
Texas Southern         5430\nJackson St.            4176\nMississippi Valley St.  272\nAlabama St.              49\nPrairie View A&M         30\nAlabama A&M              28\nGrambling                 9\nAlcorn St.                5\nArkansas Pine Bluff       1\n<\/pre>\n
Texas Southern is the 2011 version of 2010 Pine Bluff<\/a>. The Tigers survived the pre-season barnstorming tour with just two wins, but losses included a number of respectable performances against decent teams.<\/p>\n
13. SoCon<\/b><\/p>\n
College of Charleston  5327\nDavidson               1889\nFurman                 1467\nWofford                1251 \nAppalachian St.          47\nChattanooga              10\nSamford                   5\nWestern Carolina          2\nElon                      1\n<\/pre>\n
Talk about unbalanced divisions. The top four teams here have put a ton of distance between them and the rest of the conference, and all four reside in the Southern South.<\/p>\n
12. CAA<\/b><\/p>\n
George Mason           5301\nDrexel                 3042\nOld Dominion           1091\nVirginia Commonwealth   539\nJames Madison            19\nDelaware                  8\nHofstra                   1\n<\/pre>\n
Should be a good duel between GMU and Drexel, and from eyeballing it, the Dragons have the slightly easier schedule.<\/p>\n
11. Sun Belt<\/b><\/p>\n
North Texas            5260\nArkansas St.           2125\nFlorida Atlantic       1273\nWestern Kentucky        937\nDenver                  190\nMiddle Tennessee        124\nArkansas Little Rock     56\nSouth Alabama            22\nFlorida International    13\n<\/pre>\n
Isiah, you still have a shot.<\/p>\n
10. Conference USA<\/b><\/p>\n
Central Florida        5190\nTexas El Paso          1877\nUAB                     975\nSouthern Mississippi    880\nMemphis                 726\nTulsa                   308\nMarshall                 21\nRice                     19\nTulane                    4\n<\/pre>\n
I get the feeling people think Memphis is a favorite to win the league despite their recent string of poor performances. In reality, UCF is the favorite based on its on-the-court play, and UTEP is a nice darkhorse thanks to a friendly schedule.<\/p>\n
9. NEC<\/b><\/p>\n
Quinnipiac             4927\nRobert Morris          3115\nSt. Francis NY         1317\nLong Island             417\nCentral Connecticut     122\nWagner                   98\nFairleigh Dickinson       1\nMonmouth                  1\nSacred Heart              1\nMount St. Mary's          0\n<\/pre>\n
Quinnipiac has two losses by a total of six points, although almost every game has been an odyssey in late-game win probability swings.<\/p>\n
8. MVC<\/b><\/p>\n
Wichita St.            4826\nMissouri St.           4578\nCreighton               516\nNorthern Iowa            78\nIllinois St.              1\nIndiana St.               1\nSouthern Illinois         0\n<\/pre>\n
The Shockers and Bears are both 2-0 and if everything goes to plan, the race will be decided in the season finale between the two in Wichita.<\/p>\n
7. America East<\/b><\/p>\n
Vermont                4692\nMaine                  3174\nBoston University      1721\nAlbany                  212\nStony Brook             174\nHartford                 17\nNew Hampshire             8\nBinghamton                0\n<\/pre>\n
Vermont was picked fifth by the media (and fourth by the kenpom projection). BU was the media\/kenpom favorite and still has hope despite starting the season 5-10 (0-1).<\/p>\n
6. Ivy<\/b><\/p>\n
Princeton              4677\nHarvard                4567\nPennsylvania            236\nYale                    223\nCornell                 221\nColumbia                 68\nBrown                     7\nDartmouth                 0\n<\/pre>\n
The nation’s most improved conference figures to have a good race for the most important one-seed of all. There’s a 21% chance of a tie at the end of the regular season which included one case of a five-way tie.<\/p>\n
5. OVC<\/b><\/p>\n
Austin Peay            4412\nMurray St.             3501\nMorehead St.           2054\nTennessee St.            31\nEastern Kentucky          1\nEastern Illinois          0\nTennessee Tech            0\n<\/pre>\n
This was widely thought to be a Murray\/Morehead race but Peay’s 4-0 start, including a wild OT win over Morehead, has changed the math.<\/p>\n
4. Big East<\/b><\/p>\n
Pittsburgh             4405\nSyracuse               2821\nLouisville              990\nVillanova               957\nGeorgetown              248\nCincinnati              223\nNotre Dame              205\nConnecticut              47\nMarquette                46\nSt. John's               34\nWest Virginia            22\nSeton Hall                2\n<\/pre>\n
OK, so I went a little overboard with this tweet<\/a>. Pitt<\/p>\n
is<\/u><\/p>\n
 the favorite, but it’s largely attributable to schedule differences. The Panthers get the Orange at home and also get to double dip with South Florida.<\/p>\n
3. MAAC<\/b><\/p>\n
Iona                   4319\nFairfield              2704\nRider                  2446\nSiena                   482\nSt. Peter's              39\nLoyola MD                 6\nCanisius                  4\n<\/pre>\n
Props to Rider, an after-thought in the preseason, but arguably the best team in the MAAC at this moment. However, the Broncs are a game down to Fairfield and Iona heading into Monday’s action.<\/p>\n
2. MWC<\/b><\/p>\n
Brigham Young          4228\nNevada Las Vegas       3166\nSan Diego St.          2479\nNew Mexico              124\nColorado St.              4\n<\/pre>\n
No games yet in the MWC, but you could pick any one of the top three teams and I wouldn’t quibble. <\/p>\n
1. MAC<\/b><\/p>\n
Ball St.               3776\nKent St.               1806\nBuffalo                1553\nOhio                   1243\nAkron                  1022\nWestern Michigan        338\nMiami OH                213\nCentral Michigan         31\nNorthern Illinois         8\nBowling Green             7\nEastern Michigan          2\n<\/pre>\n
The conference that sent its nine-seed to the NCAA tournament last season also brings us the most wide-open race in 2011. I predict when log5 season comes around, seeding will not be very important this year, either.<\/p>\n","protected":false},"excerpt":{"rendered":"
(Ed. note: simulations run for the Pre-Conference Preview Blowout do not include Monday’s action. Nor does any of the text.) This is part 2 of the Pre-Conference Preview Blowout, where I preview conference races by simulating them 10,000 times using my ratings. In this edition we find that Duquesne is sneaky good and you should […]<\/p>\n","protected":false},"author":1,"featured_media":0,"comment_status":"closed","ping_status":"closed","sticky":false,"template":"","format":"standard","meta":[],"categories":[1],"tags":[],"_links":{"self":[{"href":"https:\/\/kenpom.com\/blog\/wp-json\/wp\/v2\/posts\/524"}],"collection":[{"href":"https:\/\/kenpom.com\/blog\/wp-json\/wp\/v2\/posts"}],"about":[{"href":"https:\/\/kenpom.com\/blog\/wp-json\/wp\/v2\/types\/post"}],"author":[{"embeddable":true,"href":"https:\/\/kenpom.com\/blog\/wp-json\/wp\/v2\/users\/1"}],"replies":[{"embeddable":true,"href":"https:\/\/kenpom.com\/blog\/wp-json\/wp\/v2\/comments?post=524"}],"version-history":[{"count":0,"href":"https:\/\/kenpom.com\/blog\/wp-json\/wp\/v2\/posts\/524\/revisions"}],"wp:attachment":[{"href":"https:\/\/kenpom.com\/blog\/wp-json\/wp\/v2\/media?parent=524"}],"wp:term":[{"taxonomy":"category","embeddable":true,"href":"https:\/\/kenpom.com\/blog\/wp-json\/wp\/v2\/categories?post=524"},{"taxonomy":"post_tag","embeddable":true,"href":"https:\/\/kenpom.com\/blog\/wp-json\/wp\/v2\/tags?post=524"}],"curies":[{"name":"wp","href":"https:\/\/api.w.org\/{rel}","templated":true}]}}