There\u2019s an epidemic taking hold of college hoops: Too many games staged early in the season are mismatches. According to FanMatch, there were 1,451 games played from the beginning of last season through December 7. Of those games, the underdog had at most a five percent chance of winning in 288 of them. In addition, there were 217 games involving a D-I team playing a non-D-I team. Overall, there were 505 glorified exhibitions played in the first four weeks of the season, which means a little more than one in every three games was decided before it started. Underdogs won 18 of these games.<\/p>\n
College basketball struggles to make a splash when its season begins and there\u2019s incentive to make early-season hoops more interesting to the casual fan. My idea is to turn over the first week of the season to my game generator, ScheduleMatic, which will schedule the first two opponents for every Division I team. <\/p>\n
What\u2019s ScheduleMatic? It\u2019s an algorithm that finds competitive matchups among nearby teams, the types of games that generate interest among the die-hard and casual fan alike. ScheduleMatic accomplishes this by putting the 344 Division I teams in random order and then conducts an automated draft, matching nearby teams with a small difference in their ranking from the previous season. (In this case, I\u2019ll use my own ratings, but any system will do.) In a matter of seconds, ScheduleMatic produces a complete schedule of one home and one road game for each team. <\/p>\n
I ran ScheduleMatic based on last season\u2019s rankings in order to provide an example of how it works. In the draft for the upcoming season, 341st ranked Alcorn State was the first team up and they drew (326) Louisiana Monroe as their home opponent, a mere 127-mile road trip for the Warhawks. Then (204) McNeese State draws (209) Houston (214 miles), (59) Seton Hall draws (65) Iona (38 miles) and so on. It works as expected until you get to the back end of the draft. Since an opponent can be selected only once, there are fewer choices for each successive team in the draft. <\/p>\n
For example, the last team in the draft was (206) William & Mary. The Tribe was forced to host (345) Southern, which results in a 1,500-mile road trip for a not-so-competitive matchup. Not exactly what we want. A worse case is the fourth-to-last team to pick, (194) Yale drawing (259) Montana State, a less-than-optimal 3,100-mile trip for the Bobcats. <\/p>\n
But ScheduleMatic\u2019s algorithm includes a second part to the process that attempts to remove these undesirable games in order to keep true to our objective. This process is iterated several times as it looks for ways to eliminate the uninteresting matchups. (A process that is similar to that used to solve the traveling salesman problem<\/a> like Sagarin has used to try to create geographically optimized sectionals<\/a>.) Once this is complete, William & Mary\u2019s home opponent becomes (213) Charlotte and Southern travels to (335) Central Arkansas. Yale ends up hosting (199) VMI and Montana State travels to (265) Seattle. Each team gets a better game with less travel involved.<\/p>\n The complete list of opponents derived from this method is below. One thing that I haven\u2019t done here is control for opponents already on a team\u2019s schedule since games for the upcoming season are just now being released, but that could be easily added to the process. It\u2019s better for the transparency of the method to ignore those in this example, anyway. The relative weights of the proximity and competitiveness parameters could be adjusted, but after several attempts to tune these, I feel like the right balance has been struck.<\/p>\n I don\u2019t expect the NCAA to adopt ScheduleMatic. While the NCAA does meddle in schedule to some degree, they don\u2019t dictate specific opponents for anyone. Furthermore, it would undoubtedly make certain coaches uncomfortable having to play nearby teams that they would rather avoid. (In this case, Maryland is forced to play Georgetown. Wichita State gets to play Kansas and Kansas State.)<\/p>\n Nonetheless, a change like this would be good for the game. Matchups would be announced on October 1st to generate interest in the upcoming season and allow for the algortihm to account for opponents already on a team’s schedule. The first week of the season would be left open to allow these games to be easily scheduled. With ScheduleMatic, 344 compelling games are added to the first week of play, each with some doubt surrounding the outcome. Exciting finishes would be frequent and every team would have a significant test or two on which to be judged early.<\/p>\n One of the spoils for a surprisingly good year would be to get high-profile teams on the schedule to start the next season. Imagine the anticipation of the announcement of these games for schools like Belmont and George Mason. In this example, the reward for the Patriots\u2019 work in 2010 is games against Syracuse and Virginia Tech, programs that otherwise wouldn\u2019t bother playing them. Belmont gets Illinois and Vanderbilt on its schedule. <\/p>\n It is safe to say that if the NCAA was willing, ScheduleMatic would transform the beginning of the season. So contact your school\u2019s coach today, and tell him to support ScheduleMatic now!<\/p>\n There\u2019s an epidemic taking hold of college hoops: Too many games staged early in the season are mismatches. According to FanMatch, there were 1,451 games played from the beginning of last season through December 7. Of those games, the underdog had at most a five percent chance of winning in 288 of them. In addition, […]<\/p>\n","protected":false},"author":1,"featured_media":0,"comment_status":"closed","ping_status":"closed","sticky":false,"template":"","format":"standard","meta":[],"categories":[1],"tags":[],"_links":{"self":[{"href":"https:\/\/kenpom.com\/blog\/wp-json\/wp\/v2\/posts\/491"}],"collection":[{"href":"https:\/\/kenpom.com\/blog\/wp-json\/wp\/v2\/posts"}],"about":[{"href":"https:\/\/kenpom.com\/blog\/wp-json\/wp\/v2\/types\/post"}],"author":[{"embeddable":true,"href":"https:\/\/kenpom.com\/blog\/wp-json\/wp\/v2\/users\/1"}],"replies":[{"embeddable":true,"href":"https:\/\/kenpom.com\/blog\/wp-json\/wp\/v2\/comments?post=491"}],"version-history":[{"count":0,"href":"https:\/\/kenpom.com\/blog\/wp-json\/wp\/v2\/posts\/491\/revisions"}],"wp:attachment":[{"href":"https:\/\/kenpom.com\/blog\/wp-json\/wp\/v2\/media?parent=491"}],"wp:term":[{"taxonomy":"category","embeddable":true,"href":"https:\/\/kenpom.com\/blog\/wp-json\/wp\/v2\/categories?post=491"},{"taxonomy":"post_tag","embeddable":true,"href":"https:\/\/kenpom.com\/blog\/wp-json\/wp\/v2\/tags?post=491"}],"curies":[{"name":"wp","href":"https:\/\/api.w.org\/{rel}","templated":true}]}}\nTeam<\/u> Home Opponent<\/u> Road Opponent<\/u>\nAir Force New Mexico St. Northern Colorado \nAkron Wright St. James Madison \nAlabama Missouri UAB \nAlabama A&M Kennesaw St. Florida A&M \nAlabama St. Chattanooga South Alabama \nAlbany Siena Wagner \nAlcorn St. Louisiana Monroe Howard \nAmerican William & Mary Loyola MD \nAppalachian St. NC Asheville Tennessee Tech \nArizona San Diego St. Nevada Las Vegas \n\nArizona St. Northern Colorado Northern Arizona \nArkansas Tulsa South Dakota St. \nArkansas Little Rock Southern Illinois Drake \nArkansas Pine Bluff Central Arkansas Louisiana Monroe \nArkansas St. Miami OH Tulane \nArmy Fordham New Hampshire \nAuburn Tennessee Tech Western Carolina \nAustin Peay Lipscomb St. Louis \nBall St. Bradley Evansville \nBaylor Missouri St. Texas El Paso \n\nBelmont Vanderbilt Illinois \nBethune Cookman Florida Gulf Coast Stetson \nBinghamton Colgate Niagara \nBoise St. Montana Oregon \nBoston College Connecticut College of Charleston \nBoston University Northeastern Harvard \nBowling Green Wake Forest Elon \nBradley Loyola Chicago Ball St. \nBrigham Young Utah St. San Diego St. \nBrown Lafayette Sacred Heart \n\nBryant Hartford Marist \nBucknell Drexel North Carolina St. \nBuffalo Rhode Island Canisius \nButler Michigan St. Missouri \nCal Poly Nevada San Jose St. \nCal St. Bakersfield San Diego Sacramento St. \nCal St. Fullerton Eastern Washington Pepperdine \nCal St. Northridge Loyola Marymount Lamar \nCalifornia St. Mary's Santa Clara \nCampbell NC Wilmington Liberty \n\nTeam<\/u> Home Opponent<\/u> Road Opponent<\/u>\nCanisius Buffalo IUPU Fort Wayne \nCentral Arkansas Southern Arkansas Pine Bluff \nCentral Connecticut Holy Cross George Washington \nCentral Florida North Carolina St. South Florida \nCentral Michigan St. Francis PA Southeast Missouri St.\nCharleston Southern Georgia St. Southern Illinois \nCharlotte Mercer William & Mary \nChattanooga Missouri Kansas City Alabama St. \nChicago St. Western Illinois SIU Edwardsville \nCincinnati Florida St. Michigan \n\nClemson West Virginia Florida \nCleveland St. Kent St. Oakland \nCoastal Carolina South Carolina Davidson \nColgate Dartmouth Binghamton \nCollege of Charleston Boston College Miami FL \nColorado New Mexico Texas A&M \nColorado St. Iowa Iowa St. \nColumbia St. Francis NY Stony Brook \nConnecticut Wisconsin Boston College \nCoppin St. Towson Navy \n\nCornell DePaul Quinnipiac \nCreighton Iowa St. Nebraska \nDartmouth Fairleigh Dickinson Colgate \nDavidson Coastal Carolina NC Asheville \nDayton Murray St. Indiana St. \nDelaware Florida Atlantic Saint Joseph's \nDelaware St. NJ Inst of Technology Samford \nDenver Wyoming Texas San Antonio \nDePaul Illinois St. Cornell \nDetroit IUPUI Long Island \n\nDrake Arkansas Little Rock Virginia Military Inst\nDrexel Princeton Bucknell \nDuke Ohio St. West Virginia \nDuquesne Seton Hall Virginia Commonwealth \nEast Carolina Hofstra Furman \nEast Tennessee St. James Madison Wright St. \nEastern Illinois North Carolina A&T Northern Illinois \nEastern Kentucky Western Kentucky Youngstown St. \nEastern Michigan Niagara Jacksonville St. \nEastern Washington UC Davis Cal St. Fullerton \n\nTeam<\/u> Home Opponent<\/u> Road Opponent<\/u>\nElon Bowling Green Georgia St. \nEvansville Ball St. Middle Tennessee \nFairfield Harvard Providence \nFairleigh Dickinson Marist Dartmouth \nFlorida Clemson Florida St. \nFlorida A&M Alabama A&M Georgia Southern \nFlorida Atlantic Jacksonville Delaware \nFlorida Gulf Coast Florida International Bethune Cookman \nFlorida International Stetson Florida Gulf Coast \nFlorida St. Florida Cincinnati \n\nFordham New Hampshire Army \nFresno St. UC Santa Barbara San Francisco \nFurman East Carolina Southern Methodist \nGardner Webb The Citadel Savannah St. \nGeorge Mason Syracuse Virginia Tech \nGeorge Washington Central Connecticut Western Michigan \nGeorgetown Georgia Maryland \nGeorgia UAB Georgetown \nGeorgia Southern Florida A&M South Carolina St. \nGeorgia St. Elon Charleston Southern \n\nGeorgia Tech Marshall Wofford \nGonzaga Washington St. Washington \nGrambling Texas Pan American Houston Baptist \nHampton North Florida Winthrop \nHartford Monmouth Bryant \nHarvard Boston University Fairfield \nHawaii Pacific Oregon St. \nHigh Point NC Greensboro North Carolina Central\nHofstra Rider East Carolina \nHoly Cross Youngstown St. Central Connecticut \n\nHouston Stephen F. Austin McNeese St. \nHouston Baptist Grambling Prairie View A&M \nHoward Alcorn St. MD Baltimore County \nIdaho Utah UC Santa Barbara \nIdaho St. North Dakota Norfolk St. \nIllinois Belmont Kansas \nIllinois Chicago Liberty Texas Arlington \nIllinois St. Winthrop DePaul \nIndiana Morehead St. Missouri St. \nIndiana St. Dayton Valparaiso \n\nTeam<\/u> Home Opponent<\/u> Road Opponent<\/u>\nIona St. John's Rutgers \nIowa Northern Iowa Colorado St. \nIowa St. Colorado St. Creighton \nIUPU Fort Wayne Canisius Miami OH \nIUPUI Wisconsin Milwaukee Detroit \nJackson St. Tennessee Martin Troy \nJacksonville South Florida Florida Atlantic \nJacksonville St. Eastern Michigan Texas Southern \nJames Madison Akron East Tennessee St. \nKansas Illinois Wichita St. \n\nKansas St. Wichita St. Michigan St. \nKennesaw St. Mississippi Valley St. Alabama A&M \nKent St. Virginia Cleveland St. \nKentucky Texas Pittsburgh \nLa Salle Quinnipiac Rider \nLafayette Sacred Heart Brown \nLamar Cal St. Northridge North Florida \nLehigh Pennsylvania Siena \nLiberty Campbell Illinois Chicago \nLipscomb Middle Tennessee Austin Peay \n\nLong Beach St. Stanford UCLA \nLong Island Detroit St. Peter's \nLongwood Norfolk St. NJ Inst of Technology \nLouisiana Lafayette McNeese St. Southeastern Louisiana\nLouisiana Monroe Arkansas Pine Bluff Alcorn St. \nLouisiana St. Southeastern Louisiana Stephen F. Austin \nLouisiana Tech Northwestern St. Texas St. \nLouisville Xavier North Carolina \nLoyola Chicago Oral Roberts Bradley \nLoyola Marymount UC Irvine Cal St. Northridge \n\nLoyola MD American NC Wilmington \nMaine Massachusetts Northeastern \nManhattan Maryland Eastern Shore Monmouth \nMarist Bryant Fairleigh Dickinson \nMarquette Michigan Northwestern \nMarshall Mississippi Georgia Tech \nMaryland Georgetown Penn St. \nMaryland Eastern Shore MD Baltimore County Manhattan \nMassachusetts Yale Maine \nMcNeese St. Houston Louisiana Lafayette \n\nTeam<\/u> Home Opponent<\/u> Road Opponent<\/u>\nMD Baltimore County Howard Maryland Eastern Shore\nMemphis Mississippi St. Morehead St. \nMercer Western Carolina Charlotte \nMiami FL College of Charleston Seton Hall \nMiami OH IUPU Fort Wayne Arkansas St. \nMichigan Cincinnati Marquette \nMichigan St. Kansas St. Butler \nMiddle Tennessee Evansville Lipscomb \nMinnesota Oakland Tennessee \nMississippi Southern Mississippi Marshall \n\nMississippi St. Texas Tech Memphis \nMississippi Valley St. South Carolina Upstate Kennesaw St. \nMissouri Butler Alabama \nMissouri Kansas City Northern Illinois Chattanooga \nMissouri St. Indiana Baylor \nMonmouth Manhattan Hartford \nMontana Portland Boise St. \nMontana St. Utah Valley Seattle \nMorehead St. Memphis Indiana \nMorgan St. Wagner Mount St. Mary's \n\nMount St. Mary's Morgan St. Towson \nMurray St. St. Louis Dayton \nNavy Coppin St. St. Francis PA \nNC Asheville Davidson Appalachian St. \nNC Greensboro Troy High Point \nNC Wilmington Loyola MD Campbell \nNebraska Creighton Washington St. \nNevada San Francisco Cal Poly \nNevada Las Vegas Arizona Utah St. \nNew Hampshire Army Fordham \n\nNew Mexico Southern California Colorado \nNew Mexico St. Northern Arizona Air Force \nNiagara Binghamton Eastern Michigan \nNicholls St. Tulane Tennessee St. \nNJ Inst of Technology Longwood Delaware St. \nNorfolk St. Idaho St. Longwood \nNorth Carolina Louisville Purdue \nNorth Carolina A&T North Carolina Central Eastern Illinois \nNorth Carolina Central High Point North Carolina A&T \nNorth Carolina St. Bucknell Central Florida \n\nTeam<\/u> Home Opponent<\/u> Road Opponent<\/u>\nNorth Dakota South Dakota Idaho St. \nNorth Dakota St. Western Michigan Wisconsin Green Bay \nNorth Florida Lamar Hampton \nNorth Texas Rice Texas Christian \nNortheastern Maine Boston University \nNorthern Arizona Arizona St. New Mexico St. \nNorthern Colorado Air Force Arizona St. \nNorthern Illinois Eastern Illinois Missouri Kansas City \nNorthern Iowa Valparaiso Iowa \nNorthwestern Marquette Xavier \n\nNorthwestern St. Texas Southern Louisiana Tech \nNotre Dame Washington Wisconsin \nOakland Cleveland St. Minnesota \nOhio Wisconsin Green Bay Robert Morris \nOhio St. Pittsburgh Duke \nOklahoma Southern Methodist Oral Roberts \nOklahoma St. Texas El Paso Tulsa \nOld Dominion Richmond St. John's \nOral Roberts Oklahoma Loyola Chicago \nOregon Boise St. Portland \n\nOregon St. Hawaii Pacific \nPacific Oregon St. Hawaii \nPenn St. Maryland Villanova \nPennsylvania Saint Joseph's Lehigh \nPepperdine Cal St. Fullerton UC Irvine \nPittsburgh Kentucky Ohio St. \nPortland Oregon Montana \nPortland St. Seattle UC Riverside \nPrairie View A&M Houston Baptist Texas A&M Corpus Chris\nPresbyterian Savannah St. The Citadel \n\nPrinceton Rutgers Drexel \nProvidence Fairfield Rhode Island \nPurdue North Carolina Texas \nQuinnipiac Cornell La Salle \nRadford South Carolina St. Toledo \nRhode Island Providence Buffalo \nRice Sam Houston St. North Texas \nRichmond Virginia Commonwealth Old Dominion \nRider La Salle Hofstra \nRobert Morris Ohio St. Bonaventure \n\nTeam<\/u> Home Opponent<\/u> Road Opponent<\/u>\nRutgers Iona Princeton \nSacramento St. Cal St. Bakersfield UC Davis \nSacred Heart Brown Lafayette \nSaint Joseph's Delaware Pennsylvania \nSam Houston St. Texas Christian Rice \nSamford Delaware St. South Carolina Upstate\nSan Diego UC Riverside Cal St. Bakersfield \nSan Diego St. Brigham Young Arizona \nSan Francisco Fresno St. Nevada \nSan Jose St. Cal Poly Weber St. \n\nSanta Clara California Stanford \nSavannah St. Gardner Webb Presbyterian \nSeattle Montana St. Portland St. \nSeton Hall Miami FL Duquesne \nSiena Lehigh Albany \nSIU Edwardsville Chicago St. Southern \nSouth Alabama Alabama St. Tennessee Martin \nSouth Carolina Vermont Coastal Carolina \nSouth Carolina St. Georgia Southern Radford \nSouth Carolina Upstate Samford Mississippi Valley St.\n\nSouth Dakota Southeast Missouri St. North Dakota \nSouth Dakota St. Arkansas Texas Tech \nSouth Florida Central Florida Jacksonville \nSoutheast Missouri St. Central Michigan South Dakota \nSoutheastern Louisiana Louisiana Lafayette Louisiana St. \nSouthern SIU Edwardsville Central Arkansas \nSouthern California Texas A&M New Mexico \nSouthern Illinois Charleston Southern Arkansas Little Rock \nSouthern Methodist Furman Oklahoma \nSouthern Mississippi Tennessee Mississippi \n\nSouthern Utah Texas St. Utah Valley \nSt. Bonaventure Robert Morris Wisconsin Milwaukee \nSt. Francis NY Stony Brook Columbia \nSt. Francis PA Navy Central Michigan \nSt. John's Old Dominion Iona \nSt. Louis Austin Peay Murray St. \nSt. Mary's UCLA California \nSt. Peter's Long Island Vermont \nStanford Santa Clara Long Beach St. \nStephen F. Austin Louisiana St. Houston \n\nTeam<\/u> Home Opponent<\/u> Road Opponent<\/u>\nStetson Bethune Cookman Florida International \nStony Brook Columbia St. Francis NY \nSyracuse Temple George Mason \nTemple Villanova Syracuse \nTennessee Minnesota Southern Mississippi \nTennessee Martin South Alabama Jackson St. \nTennessee St. Nicholls St. Western Kentucky \nTennessee Tech Appalachian St. Auburn \nTexas Purdue Kentucky \nTexas A&M Colorado Southern California \n\nTexas A&M Corpus Chris Prairie View A&M Texas Pan American \nTexas Arlington Illinois Chicago Wake Forest \nTexas Christian North Texas Sam Houston St. \nTexas El Paso Baylor Oklahoma St. \nTexas Pan American Texas A&M Corpus Chris Grambling \nTexas San Antonio Denver Wyoming \nTexas Southern Jacksonville St. Northwestern St. \nTexas St. Louisiana Tech Southern Utah \nTexas Tech South Dakota St. Mississippi St. \nThe Citadel Presbyterian Gardner Webb \n\nToledo Radford Western Illinois \nTowson Mount St. Mary's Coppin St. \nTroy Jackson St. NC Greensboro \nTulane Arkansas St. Nicholls St. \nTulsa Oklahoma St. Arkansas \nUAB Alabama Georgia \nUC Davis Sacramento St. Eastern Washington \nUC Irvine Pepperdine Loyola Marymount \nUC Riverside Portland St. San Diego \nUC Santa Barbara Idaho Fresno St. \n\nUCLA Long Beach St. St. Mary's \nUtah Weber St. Idaho \nUtah St. Nevada Las Vegas Brigham Young \nUtah Valley Southern Utah Montana St. \nValparaiso Indiana St. Northern Iowa \nVanderbilt Virginia Tech Belmont \nVermont St. Peter's South Carolina \nVillanova Penn St. Temple \nVirginia Wofford Kent St. \nVirginia Commonwealth Duquesne Richmond \n\nTeam<\/u> Home Opponent<\/u> Road Opponent<\/u>\nVirginia Military Inst Drake Yale \nVirginia Tech George Mason Vanderbilt \nWagner Albany Morgan St. \nWake Forest Texas Arlington Bowling Green \nWashington Gonzaga Notre Dame \nWashington St. Nebraska Gonzaga \nWeber St. San Jose St. Utah \nWest Virginia Duke Clemson \nWestern Carolina Auburn Mercer \nWestern Illinois Toledo Chicago St. \n\nWestern Kentucky Tennessee St. Eastern Kentucky \nWestern Michigan George Washington North Dakota St. \nWichita St. Kansas Kansas St. \nWilliam & Mary Charlotte American \nWinthrop Hampton Illinois St. \nWisconsin Notre Dame Connecticut \nWisconsin Green Bay North Dakota St. Ohio \nWisconsin Milwaukee St. Bonaventure IUPUI \nWofford Georgia Tech Virginia \nWright St. East Tennessee St. Akron \n\nWyoming Texas San Antonio Denver \nXavier Northwestern Louisville \nYale Virginia Military Inst Massachusetts \nYoungstown St. Eastern Kentucky Holy Cross \n<\/pre>\n","protected":false},"excerpt":{"rendered":"