{"id":464,"date":"2011-12-29T05:03:45","date_gmt":"2011-12-29T11:03:45","guid":{"rendered":"http:\/\/67.227.157.91\/~kenpom\/wp_blog\/2012-conference-previews-part-4\/"},"modified":"2011-12-29T05:03:45","modified_gmt":"2011-12-29T11:03:45","slug":"2012-conference-previews-part-4","status":"publish","type":"post","link":"https:\/\/kenpom.com\/blog\/2012-conference-previews-part-4\/","title":{"rendered":"2012 conference previews, part 4"},"content":{"rendered":"

The is the penultimate look at the 32 Monte Carlo simulations performed on each Division I conference regular season race. This will leave us with the six remaining conferences where the favorite has less than a 50\/50 chance of winning its league. For those needing further explanation of what they are about to read, please consult Monday\u2019s post<\/a>, then follow up with Tuesday\u2019s<\/a> and Wednesday\u2019s<\/a> action. Please note, and I will remind you repeatedly below, that the following numbers were based on calculations that didn\u2019t include last night\u2019s games.<\/p>\n

18. Missouri Valley (Wichita State, 58%)<\/b><\/p>\n

I must admit an error in omitting the Valley from yesterday\u2019s post. This tally doesn\u2019t include the results from last night, but you can see why Missouri State\u2019s upset at Creighton should make Shocker fans happy.<\/p>\n

Wichita St.   5751\nCreighton     2300\nNorthern Iowa 1343\nMissouri St.   321\nIndiana St.    175\nIllinois St.   108\nDrake            1\nBradley          0\n<\/pre>\n
12. Southland (Lamar, 53%)<\/b><\/p>\n
Pat Knight\u2019s done a fine job in his first season at Lamar, but he did inherit the most experienced team in the country. The Cardinals are one of the few teams that start five seniors.<\/p>\n
Lamar             5259\nTexas Arlington   2411\nTexas San Antonio 2085\nStephen F. Austin  131\nNorthwestern St.    69\nSE Louisiana        20\nMcNeese St.         15\nTexas St.            7\nSam Houston St.      1\nTAMU Corpus Christi  1\n<\/pre>\n
11. MEAC (Morgan State, 52%)<\/b><\/p>\n
Coach Boze is at it again. Even with a 2-8 record, Morgan is a favorite over Norfolk State. What\u2019s noteworthy here is that both teams are currently in the top 200. The MEAC hasn\u2019t had multiple teams finish in the top 200 since I started tracking these kinds of things.<\/p>\n
Morgan St.       5158\nNorfolk St.      1903\nNC Central       1068\nCoppin St.        857\nSavannah St.      597\nBethune Cookman   190\nHampton           169\nDelaware St.       40\nNorth Carolina A&T 11\nHoward              8\nSouth Carolina St.  0\n<\/pre>\n
10. Summit (Oral Roberts, 51%)<\/b><\/p>\n
All three of the favorites here won in conference play last night, the Dakota brethren by a combined 63 points. So game on. These calculations do not include those results so it\u2019s worth noting that North Dakota State\u2019s win was over previously 2-0 Oakland. <\/p>\n
Oral Roberts     5078\nSouth Dakota St. 3150\nNorth Dakota St. 1321\nOakland           431\nIUPUI              11\nWestern Illinois    8\nUMKC                1\nSouthern Utah       0\n<\/pre>\n
9. SWAC (Mississippi Valley St., 51%)<\/b><\/p>\n
The Delta Devils have as many wins in regulation as national laughingstock Grambling (zero), and yet they are the favorite to win the SWAC. But when all the teams in the conference are taking repeated beatings from power conference teams on the road, it\u2019s tough to put a lot of faith in these calculations.<\/p>\n
Miss. Valley St. 5050\nJackson St.      1319\nTexas Southern    949\nAlabama A&M       791\nPrairie View A&M  752\nArk. Pine Bluff   568\nAlabama St.       356\nSouthern          148\nAlcorn St.         67\n<\/pre>\n
8. Conference USA (Memphis, 50%)<\/b><\/p>\n
Well, the doubters have been proven wrong: Memphis is<\/i> better than last season. But not so much better than they are a lock to win CUSA. Marshall is a legitimate threat and Southern Miss\u2019s chances are understated considering Darnell Dodson appears to be an impact addition after having been reinstated to the team two weeks ago.<\/p>\n
Memphis       5012\nMarshall      3094\nSouthern Miss  917\nTulane         361\nTulsa          223\nUTEP           126\nCentral Florida 99\nRice            63\nEast Carolina   51\nHouston         42\nUAB             10\nSMU              3\n<\/pre>\n
7. Horizon (Cleveland State, 50%)<\/b><\/p>\n
No Norris Cole? No problem. Well, it\u2019s been a slight problem because Cleveland State\u2019s offense has been dreadful and that\u2019s why, despite an 11-2 start that has included wins at Vanderbilt and Kent State, the Vikings are giving only a slightly better chance than Milwaukee of snagging the top seed in the Horizon.<\/p>\n
Cleveland St. 4977\nMilwaukee     3607\nButler         724\nValparaiso     413\nGreen Bay      185\nDetroit         75\nYoungstown St.  14\nLoyola Chicago   3\nWright St.       2\n<\/pre>\n","protected":false},"excerpt":{"rendered":"
The is the penultimate look at the 32 Monte Carlo simulations performed on each Division I conference regular season race. This will leave us with the six remaining conferences where the favorite has less than a 50\/50 chance of winning its league. For those needing further explanation of what they are about to read, please […]<\/p>\n","protected":false},"author":1,"featured_media":0,"comment_status":"closed","ping_status":"closed","sticky":false,"template":"","format":"standard","meta":[],"categories":[1],"tags":[],"_links":{"self":[{"href":"https:\/\/kenpom.com\/blog\/wp-json\/wp\/v2\/posts\/464"}],"collection":[{"href":"https:\/\/kenpom.com\/blog\/wp-json\/wp\/v2\/posts"}],"about":[{"href":"https:\/\/kenpom.com\/blog\/wp-json\/wp\/v2\/types\/post"}],"author":[{"embeddable":true,"href":"https:\/\/kenpom.com\/blog\/wp-json\/wp\/v2\/users\/1"}],"replies":[{"embeddable":true,"href":"https:\/\/kenpom.com\/blog\/wp-json\/wp\/v2\/comments?post=464"}],"version-history":[{"count":0,"href":"https:\/\/kenpom.com\/blog\/wp-json\/wp\/v2\/posts\/464\/revisions"}],"wp:attachment":[{"href":"https:\/\/kenpom.com\/blog\/wp-json\/wp\/v2\/media?parent=464"}],"wp:term":[{"taxonomy":"category","embeddable":true,"href":"https:\/\/kenpom.com\/blog\/wp-json\/wp\/v2\/categories?post=464"},{"taxonomy":"post_tag","embeddable":true,"href":"https:\/\/kenpom.com\/blog\/wp-json\/wp\/v2\/tags?post=464"}],"curies":[{"name":"wp","href":"https:\/\/api.w.org\/{rel}","templated":true}]}}