{"id":422,"date":"2012-03-11T22:09:09","date_gmt":"2012-03-12T04:09:09","guid":{"rendered":"http:\/\/67.227.157.91\/~kenpom\/wp_blog\/ncaa-tourney-log5-analysis\/"},"modified":"2012-03-11T22:09:09","modified_gmt":"2012-03-12T04:09:09","slug":"ncaa-tourney-log5-analysis","status":"publish","type":"post","link":"https:\/\/kenpom.com\/blog\/ncaa-tourney-log5-analysis\/","title":{"rendered":"NCAA tourney log5 analysis"},"content":{"rendered":"

What follows is log5-style predictions<\/a> of each team’s chance of advancing to each round in the tournament. The full list of 68 follows the regional analysis. [Corrected tables due to error in UNC’s rating -kp 3\/12]<\/i><\/p>\n

South<\/b><\/p>\n

– I agree with Luke<\/a>. Kentucky has the easiest path for a one-seed. The reputations of Duke and Baylor are better (by quite a bit in Duke’s case) than their ability. I’m undecided as to whether to write the annual “(Insert favored team here) will not win the national title” column. But the odds are squarely on my side.<\/p>\n

– At the bottom of the bracket, watch South Dakota State. They didn’t get much of a break in drawing Baylor, but it’s not an impossible situation for them. And should they pull off the upset they’ll have just shy of a 50\/50 chance of getting to the Sweet 16.<\/p>\n

                      Rd3  Swt16  Elite8 Final4 Final  Champ    1 in…\n 1S  Kentucky        97.9   82.5   59.6   47.9   31.6   19.7    5\n 5S  Wichita St.     77.2   46.0   17.8   11.8    5.7    2.6    39\n 4S  Indiana         77.8   41.0   14.6    9.2    4.1    1.7    59\n 3S  Baylor          73.5   51.1   31.8   10.9    4.5    1.7    60\n 2S  Duke            77.8   53.1   30.1    9.5    3.6    1.2    80\n 6S  UNLV            66.0   27.4   13.1    3.0    0.8    0.2    491\n 8S  Iowa St.        55.0   10.1    3.6    1.7    0.5    0.1    726\n 7S  Notre Dame      55.8   22.7    9.3    1.9    0.5    0.1    1008\n 9S  Connecticut     45.0    7.1    2.2    0.9    0.2    0.06   1713\n10S  Xavier          44.2   15.7    5.6    0.9    0.2    0.04   2806\n14S  S. Dakota St.   26.5   12.1    4.6    0.8    0.2    0.03   3357\n12S  VCU             22.8    7.3    1.3    0.5    0.1    0.02   4423\n11S  Colorado        34.0    9.3    3.0    0.4    0.07   0.01   9571\n13S  New Mexico St.  22.2    5.7    0.9    0.3    0.06   0.01   9762\n15S  Lehigh          22.2    8.5    2.4    0.3    0.05   0.007  15289\n16S  Western Kentucky 1.6    0.2    0.01   0.001 <0.001 <0.001  30136770\n16S  Miss. Valley St. 0.4    0.03   0.001 <0.001 <0.001 <0.001  3063887043\n<\/pre>\n
West<\/b><\/p>\n
- The committee played a cruel joke by matching up Memphis and St. Louis. The person I feel sorry for is Rick Majerus. Yes, the Billikens return the majority of their roster next season, but I have a hunch things came together this season in a way that won’t be duplicated again at SLU. With this draw, he has a one-in-eight shot at seeing the second weekend.<\/p>\n
- ‘76 Indiana gets all the publicity, but the last one-loss national champ was 1974 N.C. State, predating Bob Knight’s perfect team. Good luck Murray State.<\/p>\n
                      Rd3  Swt16  Elite8 Final4 Final  Champ    1 in…\n 1W  Michigan St.    96.3   65.2   49.8   35.2   21.1   12.4    8\n 2W  Missouri        96.2   64.4   46.7   23.1   11.3    5.3    19\n 8W  Memphis         58.8   22.1   14.2    8.2    3.8    1.7    59\n 5W  New Mexico      67.2   41.4   14.2    7.1    2.8    1.0    95\n 3W  Marquette       69.6   49.2   20.7    7.5    2.7    0.9    108\n 4W  Louisville      71.4   35.7   10.5    4.7    1.6    0.5    192\n 7W  Florida         55.3   20.6   12.2    4.4    1.5    0.5    195\n 9W  St. Louis       41.2   12.4    6.9    3.4    1.3    0.5    207\n10W  Virginia        44.7   14.6    8.0    2.5    0.8    0.2    450\n 6W  Murray St.      60.8   23.6    6.3    1.4    0.3    0.07   1516\n12W  Long Beach St.  32.8   14.7    3.0    1.0    0.3    0.06   1655\n14W  BYU             16.5    8.7    2.2    0.5    0.1    0.02   4978\n14W  Iona            13.9    7.0    1.6    0.3    0.07   0.01   8346\n13W  Davidson        28.6    8.3    1.2    0.3    0.06   0.009  10652\n11W  Colorado St.    39.2   11.5    2.2    0.4    0.06   0.008  11790\n16W  Long Island      3.7    0.3    0.03   0.003 <0.001 <0.001  8005351\n15W  Norfolk St.      3.8    0.3    0.03   0.001 <0.001 <0.001  43273119\n<\/pre>\n
Midwest<\/b><\/p>\n
- The bottom of the bracket is tremendously strong. Leave Belmont out of it - the 15 and 16 seeds are also relatively strong, especially considering the 16’s were selected for a play-in game.<\/p>\n
- Because UNC and Kansas are so evenly matched, Kansas’s 34% chance to get to the Final Four is the most of any team in the region.<\/p>\n
                      Rd3  Swt16  Elite8 Final4 Final  Champ    1 in…\n 2MW Kansas          91.8   70.5   51.3   33.7   17.6    9.1    11\n 1MW North Carolina  89.7   66.8   49.9   28.5   13.7    6.6    15\n 3MW Georgetown      59.4   42.7   18.7    9.7    3.7    1.4    73\n 4MW Michigan        70.2   40.1   15.4    5.7    1.7    0.5    208\n14MW Belmont         40.6   25.9    9.2    4.0    1.2    0.3    286\n10MW Purdue          60.6   18.5    9.1    3.9    1.1    0.3    307\n 9MW Alabama         53.7   17.1    9.0    3.1    0.8    0.2    462\n12MW California      36.7   19.8    7.3    2.6    0.7    0.2    519\n 5MW Temple          49.6   23.9    7.6    2.3    0.5    0.1    809\n 8MW Creighton       46.3   13.4    6.5    2.0    0.5    0.1    858\n11MW N.C. State      53.8   17.7    4.6    1.5    0.3    0.07   1531\n 7MW St. Mary's      39.4    9.1    3.6    1.2    0.3    0.05   1858\n 6MW San Diego St.   46.2   13.7    3.2    0.9    0.2    0.03   3047\n13MW Ohio            29.8   10.8    2.4    0.5    0.08   0.01   8408\n12MW South Florida   13.7    5.3    1.3    0.3    0.05   0.008  11815\n16MW Lamar            6.4    1.7    0.5    0.09   0.01   0.001  82369\n15MW Detroit          8.2    1.9    0.4    0.07   0.007 <0.001  153501\n16MW Vermont          3.9    0.9    0.2    0.03   0.003 <0.001  418595\n<\/pre>\n
East<\/b><\/p>\n
- Are you off the Ohio State bandwagon yet? Me, neither! They’re the only non-one-seed to be the favorite in its region.<\/p>\n
- The 3\/14 game between Florida State and St. Bonaventure appears to be remarkably competitive on the surface. <\/p>\n
-Next time somebody says the RPI doesn’t matter, you only need to respond with “Southern Miss”. <\/p>\n
                      Rd3  Swt16  Elite8 Final4 Final  Champ    1 in…\n 2E  Ohio St.        95.1   80.7   66.3   45.9   31.6   19.3    5\n 1E  Syracuse        90.5   65.4   37.1   17.5    9.6    4.4    22\n 4E  Wisconsin       87.1   58.6   34.0   16.2    9.0    4.2    24\n 5E  Vanderbilt      67.2   29.0   13.4    4.9    2.1    0.8    131\n 3E  Florida St.     66.2   36.6   10.4    3.9    1.5    0.5    218\n 8E  Kansas St.      71.9   26.7   10.6    3.4    1.3    0.4    257\n11E  Texas           52.3   26.9    6.9    2.3    0.8    0.2    450\n 6E  Cincinnati      47.7   23.4    5.6    1.8    0.6    0.2    660\n 7E  Gonzaga         56.0   10.9    5.2    1.7    0.5    0.1    733\n10E  West Virginia   44.0    7.2    3.0    0.8    0.2    0.05   2069\n12E  Harvard         32.8    9.3    2.8    0.7    0.2    0.04   2419\n14E  St. Bonaventure 33.8   13.1    2.3    0.6    0.14   0.03   3758\n 9E  Southern Miss   28.1    5.7    1.2    0.2    0.04   0.006  15989\n13E  Montana         12.9    3.1    0.6    0.09   0.01   0.002  53868\n16E  UNC Asheville    9.5    2.2    0.3    0.03   0.004 <0.001  280663\n15E  Loyola MD        4.9    1.1    0.2    0.02   0.003 <0.001  390345\n<\/pre>\n
Here’s the full list of teams. Like last year, I’m struck by how similar the order of this list is to the order of my ratings, which suggests that irregularities in the draw don’t have as much impact on a team’s chances of winning the whole tournament as one might think. <\/p>\n
                      Rd3  Swt16  Elite8 Final4 Final  Champ    1 in…\n 1S  Kentucky        97.9   82.5   59.6   47.9   31.6   19.7    5\n 2E  Ohio St.        95.1   80.7   66.3   45.9   31.6   19.3    5\n 1W  Michigan St.    96.3   65.2   49.8   35.2   21.1   12.4    8\n 2MW Kansas          91.8   70.5   51.3   33.7   17.6    9.1    11\n 1MW North Carolina  89.7   66.8   49.9   28.5   13.7    6.6    15\n 2W  Missouri        96.2   64.4   46.7   23.1   11.3    5.3    19\n 1E  Syracuse        90.5   65.4   37.1   17.5    9.6    4.4    22\n 4E  Wisconsin       87.1   58.6   34.0   16.2    9.0    4.2    24\n 5S  Wichita St.     77.2   46.0   17.8   11.8    5.7    2.6    39\n 4S  Indiana         77.8   41.0   14.6    9.2    4.1    1.7    59\n 8W  Memphis         58.8   22.1   14.2    8.2    3.8    1.7    59\n 3S  Baylor          73.5   51.1   31.8   10.9    4.5    1.7    60\n 3MW Georgetown      59.4   42.7   18.7    9.7    3.7    1.4    73\n 2S  Duke            77.8   53.1   30.1    9.5    3.6    1.2    80\n 5W  New Mexico      67.2   41.4   14.2    7.1    2.8    1.0    95\n 3W  Marquette       69.6   49.2   20.7    7.5    2.7    0.9    108\n 5E  Vanderbilt      67.2   29.0   13.4    4.9    2.1    0.8    131\n 4W  Louisville      71.4   35.7   10.5    4.7    1.6    0.5    192\n 7W  Florida         55.3   20.6   12.2    4.4    1.5    0.5    195\n 9W  St. Louis       41.2   12.4    6.9    3.4    1.3    0.5    207\n 4MW Michigan        70.2   40.1   15.4    5.7    1.7    0.5    208\n 3E  Florida St.     66.2   36.6   10.4    3.9    1.5    0.5    218\n 8E  Kansas St.      71.9   26.7   10.6    3.4    1.3    0.4    257\n14MW Belmont         40.6   25.9    9.2    4.0    1.2    0.3    286\n10MW Purdue          60.6   18.5    9.1    3.9    1.1    0.3    307\n10W  Virginia        44.7   14.6    8.0    2.5    0.8    0.2    450\n11E  Texas           52.3   26.9    6.9    2.3    0.8    0.2    450\n 9MW Alabama         53.7   17.1    9.0    3.1    0.8    0.2    462\n 6S  UNLV            66.0   27.4   13.1    3.0    0.8    0.2    491\n12MW California      36.7   19.8    7.3    2.6    0.7    0.2    519\n 6E  Cincinnati      47.7   23.4    5.6    1.8    0.6    0.2    660\n 8S  Iowa St.        55.0   10.1    3.6    1.7    0.5    0.1    726\n 7E  Gonzaga         56.0   10.9    5.2    1.7    0.5    0.1    733\n 5MW Temple          49.6   23.9    7.6    2.3    0.5    0.1    809\n 8MW Creighton       46.3   13.4    6.5    2.0    0.5    0.1    858\n 7S  Notre Dame      55.8   22.7    9.3    1.9    0.5    0.1    1008\n 6W  Murray St.      60.8   23.6    6.3    1.4    0.3    0.07   1516\n11MW N.C. State      53.8   17.7    4.6    1.5    0.3    0.07   1531\n12W  Long Beach St.  32.8   14.7    3.0    1.0    0.3    0.06   1655\n 9S  Connecticut     45.0    7.1    2.2    0.9    0.2    0.06   1713\n 7MW St. Mary's      39.4    9.1    3.6    1.2    0.3    0.05   1858\n10E  West Virginia   44.0    7.2    3.0    0.8    0.2    0.05   2069\n12E  Harvard         32.8    9.3    2.8    0.7    0.2    0.04   2419\n10S  Xavier          44.2   15.7    5.6    0.9    0.2    0.04   2806\n 6MW San Diego St.   46.2   13.7    3.2    0.9    0.2    0.03   3047\n14S  S. Dakota St.   26.5   12.1    4.6    0.8    0.2    0.03   3357\n14E  St. Bonaventure 33.8   13.1    2.3    0.6    0.14   0.03   3758\n12S  VCU             22.8    7.3    1.3    0.5    0.1    0.02   4423\n14W  BYU             16.5    8.7    2.2    0.5    0.1    0.02   4978\n14W  Iona            13.9    7.0    1.6    0.3    0.07   0.01   8346\n13MW Ohio            29.8   10.8    2.4    0.5    0.08   0.01   8408\n11S  Colorado        34.0    9.3    3.0    0.4    0.07   0.01   9571\n13S  New Mexico St.  22.2    5.7    0.9    0.3    0.06   0.01   9762\n13W  Davidson        28.6    8.3    1.2    0.3    0.06   0.009  10652\n11W  Colorado St.    39.2   11.5    2.2    0.4    0.06   0.008  11790\n12MW South Florida   13.7    5.3    1.3    0.3    0.05   0.008  11815\n15S  Lehigh          22.2    8.5    2.4    0.3    0.05   0.007  15289\n 9E  Southern Miss   28.1    5.7    1.2    0.2    0.04   0.006  15989\n13E  Montana         12.9    3.1    0.6    0.09   0.01   0.002  53868\n16MW Lamar            6.4    1.7    0.5    0.09   0.01   0.001  82369\n15MW Detroit          8.2    1.9    0.4    0.07   0.007 <0.001  153501\n16E  UNC Asheville    9.5    2.2    0.3    0.03   0.004 <0.001  280663\n15E  Loyola MD        4.9    1.1    0.2    0.02   0.003 <0.001  390345\n16MW Vermont          3.9    0.9    0.2    0.03   0.003 <0.001  418595\n16W  Long Island      3.7    0.3    0.03   0.003 <0.001 <0.001  8005351\n16S  Western Kentucky 1.6    0.2    0.01   0.001 <0.001 <0.001  30136770\n15W  Norfolk St.      3.8    0.3    0.03   0.001 <0.001 <0.001  43273119\n16S  Miss. Valley St. 0.4    0.03   0.001 <0.001 <0.001 <0.001  3063887043\n<\/pre>\n","protected":false},"excerpt":{"rendered":"
What follows is log5-style predictions of each team’s chance of advancing to each round in the tournament. The full list of 68 follows the regional analysis. [Corrected tables due to error in UNC’s rating -kp 3\/12] South – I agree with Luke. Kentucky has the easiest path for a one-seed. The reputations of Duke and […]<\/p>\n","protected":false},"author":1,"featured_media":0,"comment_status":"closed","ping_status":"closed","sticky":false,"template":"","format":"standard","meta":[],"categories":[1],"tags":[],"_links":{"self":[{"href":"https:\/\/kenpom.com\/blog\/wp-json\/wp\/v2\/posts\/422"}],"collection":[{"href":"https:\/\/kenpom.com\/blog\/wp-json\/wp\/v2\/posts"}],"about":[{"href":"https:\/\/kenpom.com\/blog\/wp-json\/wp\/v2\/types\/post"}],"author":[{"embeddable":true,"href":"https:\/\/kenpom.com\/blog\/wp-json\/wp\/v2\/users\/1"}],"replies":[{"embeddable":true,"href":"https:\/\/kenpom.com\/blog\/wp-json\/wp\/v2\/comments?post=422"}],"version-history":[{"count":0,"href":"https:\/\/kenpom.com\/blog\/wp-json\/wp\/v2\/posts\/422\/revisions"}],"wp:attachment":[{"href":"https:\/\/kenpom.com\/blog\/wp-json\/wp\/v2\/media?parent=422"}],"wp:term":[{"taxonomy":"category","embeddable":true,"href":"https:\/\/kenpom.com\/blog\/wp-json\/wp\/v2\/categories?post=422"},{"taxonomy":"post_tag","embeddable":true,"href":"https:\/\/kenpom.com\/blog\/wp-json\/wp\/v2\/tags?post=422"}],"curies":[{"name":"wp","href":"https:\/\/api.w.org\/{rel}","templated":true}]}}