{"id":407,"date":"2012-07-05T01:10:39","date_gmt":"2012-07-05T07:10:39","guid":{"rendered":"http:\/\/67.227.157.91\/~kenpom\/wp_blog\/comments-on-2012-freshman-projections-part-1\/"},"modified":"2016-05-07T19:45:08","modified_gmt":"2016-05-08T01:45:08","slug":"comments-on-2012-freshman-projections-part-1","status":"publish","type":"post","link":"https:\/\/kenpom.com\/blog\/comments-on-2012-freshman-projections-part-1\/","title":{"rendered":"Comments on 2012 freshman projections: Part 1"},"content":{"rendered":"<p>A couple weeks ago, I left you with some crude freshman projections for the ESPNU Top 100. Today, I\u2019m here to fine-tune them some. Forty-eight of the hundred took part in the 2011 Nike Elite Youth Basketball League, for which I\u2019ve compiled advanced statistics. Worth knowing about those stats: The typical possession\u2019s worth about 1.1 points, rather than the 1.0 we tend to see in college and the pros. Those are here next to the projections, then I\u2019ll discuss what we should actually expect from each player. Today: The ACC and Big East. Monday: The Big Ten and Big 12. Next Thursday: Everyone else.<\/p>\n<h4>ACC<\/h4>\n<p>\n<b>Clemson<\/b><br \/>\n<u>Jaron Blossomgame, #94, 6\u20197 SF, Chattahoochee (Alpharetta, GA)<\/u><\/p>\n<pre>                   G\/Min ORtg %Pos OR\/DR% A% TO%  B\/S% FC\/40 FTR FT% 2P% 3P% 3PA%\nProjection                94   17   7\/13   9  21  3\/2   4.0   38 59% 48% 25%  29%\nGeorgia Stars     22\/446 124   22   9\/18   7  13  2\/1   3.0   54 63% 65% 27%   9%<\/pre>\n<p>\nBlossomgame\u2019s ability to play the big man can be underrated. He\u2019ll board better than this and make more twos. He\u2019ll probably play a backup forward role to seniors Jennings and Booker, but he\u2019ll play an effective one.<\/p>\n<p><b>Duke<\/b><br \/>\n<u>Rasheed Sulaimon, #12, 6\u20193 SG, Strake Jesuit (Houston, TX)<\/u><\/p>\n<pre>                   G\/Min ORtg %Pos OR\/DR% A% TO%  B\/S% FC\/40 FTR FT% 2P% 3P% 3PA%\nProjection               106   23   4\/11  15  17  1\/2   2.8   34 71% 49% 34%  41%\nHouston Hoops     20\/519 112   23   3\/8   13  11  0\/2   4.2   27 71% 40% 45%  44%<\/pre>\n<p>\n<u>Amile Jefferson, #25, 6\u20197 PF, Friends Central (Philadelphia, PA)<\/u><\/p>\n<pre>                         ORtg %Pos OR\/DR% A% TO%  B\/S% FC\/40 FTR FT% 2P% 3P% 3PA%\nProjection               102   20  11\/16   8  19  4\/2   4.5   43 64% 50% 25%  12%<\/pre>\n<p>\nSulaimon\u2019s prediction looks pretty good, though I\u2019d up his steal projection and temper his offensive expectations (mostly lowering that two-point percentage, though he hit 54 percent during his five-game season with the U.S. U18 team). I don\u2019t know what to think about Jefferson. He\u2019s so sneaky-effective as a scorer that I can\u2019t tell whether he\u2019ll continue to be totally unstoppable or whether nothing he does will continue to be effective. He\u2019s not ready to rebound to his projection, but he ought to be a more effective interior scorer than here projected. I\u2019d adjust his usage rate down a couple percentage points, too. For now. Both new Blue Devils should be reserves for the time being.<\/p>\n<p><b>Florida State<\/b><br \/>\n<u>Montay Brandon, #57, 6\u20194 SG, Wesleyan Christian (Greensboro, NC)<\/u><\/p>\n<pre>                   G\/Min ORtg %Pos OR\/DR% A% TO%  B\/S% FC\/40 FTR FT% 2P% 3P% 3PA%\nProjection                98   19   4\/11  13  19  2\/2   3.7   28 67% 47% 31%  44%\nGeorgia Stars     13\/218 101   16   5\/8   13  24  0\/3   1.8   69 73% 49% 18%  23%<\/pre>\n<p>\nBrandon probably starts the season on the bench, but don\u2019t be fooled by his weak EYBL stats: He came on really strong as a senior. Different guy than he was over the summer. I\u2019d expect him to play like his projection, not like his EYBL numbers.<\/p>\n<p><b>Georgia Tech<\/b><br \/>\n<u>Robert Carter, #33, 6\u20198 PF, Shiloh (Snellville, GA)<\/u><\/p>\n<pre>                         ORtg %Pos OR\/DR% A% TO%  B\/S% FC\/40 FTR FT% 2P% 3P% 3PA%\nProjection               100   18  12\/16   8  19  6\/1   4.8   41 59% 49% 24%  10%<\/pre>\n<p>\n<u>Marcus Hunt, #69, 6\u20196 SF, North Clayton (Riverdale, GA)<\/u><\/p>\n<pre>                   G\/Min ORtg %Pos OR\/DR% A% TO%  B\/S% FC\/40 FTR FT% 2P% 3P% 3PA%\nProjection               101   19   6\/14   9  17  2\/2   3.7   40 69% 48% 26%  32%\nGeorgia Stars     22\/578 109   20   4\/10  12  13  1\/2   3.7   20 60% 50% 32%  43%<\/pre>\n<p>\nCarter\u2019s projection looks good, though I\u2019d guess his turnover rate ends up a bit higher. I don\u2019t know quite what to think of Hunt, but his line from the EYBL looks a lot like his projected line, and I find it hard to believe that he\u2019ll recreate the same performance in Division I. Both should see rotation minutes if not starting jobs.<\/p>\n<p><b>Maryland<\/b><br \/>\n<u>Shaq Cleare, #30, 6\u20199 C, The Village School (Houston, TX)<\/u><\/p>\n<pre>                         ORtg %Pos OR\/DR% A% TO%  B\/S% FC\/40 FTR FT% 2P% 3P% 3PA%\nProjection                99   19  11\/16   6  21  7\/2   5.3   47 57% 50% 15%   4%<\/pre>\n<p>\n<u>Jake Layman, #67, 6\u20198 SF, King Philip Regional (Wrentham, MA)<\/u><\/p>\n<pre>                   G\/Min ORtg %Pos OR\/DR% A% TO%  B\/S% FC\/40 FTR FT% 2P% 3P% 3PA%\nProjection                97   18   7\/14   9  20  2\/2   4.1   34 64% 50% 26%  30%\nBABC              22\/315 133   21   6\/11   8  14  2\/4   3.0   24 69% 73% 41%  42%<\/pre>\n<p>\nCleare will probably start the season behind Alex Len and James Padgett on the depth chart, but I wouldn\u2019t be surprised at all if he outplays both of them. He\u2019ll rebound better on the defensive end than his projected 16 percent, and I bet he\u2019s a considerably more successful interior scorer. I\u2019d pin him closer to 105 offensive rating \/ 23 percent usage rate. Layman will be more efficient closer to the 15-16 percent usage range, and he\u2019ll get steals all over the place. He\u2019s an elite eliminator of passing lanes.<\/p>\n<p><b>Miami FL<\/b><br \/>\n<u>Melvin Johnson, #84, 6\u20193 SG, St. Benedict\u2019s Prep (Bronx, NY)<\/u><\/p>\n<pre>                   G\/Min ORtg %Pos OR\/DR% A% TO%  B\/S% FC\/40 FTR FT% 2P% 3P% 3PA%\nProjection                99   20   3\/11  12  17  1\/2   3.4   37 70% 45% 29%  48%\nNew York Gauchos  15\/312 107   18   4\/5    6  14  0\/2   1.5   25 70% 45% 35%  43%<\/pre>\n<p>\nJohnson will, in all likelihood, hit above 30 percent from behind the arc. I foresee him being a deep bench player and using somewhere between 12 and 14 percent of the Canes\u2019 possessions when on the floor. He\u2019s probably just a spot-up shooter this season.<\/p>\n<p><b>NC State<\/b><br \/>\n<u>Rodney Purvis, #20, 6\u20194 SG, Upper Room Christian (Raleigh, NC)<\/u><\/p>\n<pre>                   G\/Min ORtg %Pos OR\/DR% A% TO%  B\/S% FC\/40 FTR FT% 2P% 3P% 3PA%\nProjection               104   22   4\/10  15  18  1\/2   3.0   32 70% 48% 34%  42%\nCP3               20\/555 112   30   2\/11  29  14  0\/2   2.9   47 68% 53% 38%  13%<\/pre>\n<p>\n<u>T.J. Warren, #29, 6\u20197 SF, Brewster Academy (Durham, NC)<\/u><\/p>\n<pre>                         ORtg %Pos OR\/DR% A% TO%  B\/S% FC\/40 FTR FT% 2P% 3P% 3PA%\nProjection               101   20   7\/14  10  19  2\/2   3.7   35 67% 49% 26%  28%<\/pre>\n<p>\n<u>Tyler Lewis, #44, 5\u201911 PG, Oak Hill Academy (Statesville, NC)<\/u><\/p>\n<pre>                         ORtg %Pos OR\/DR% A% TO%  B\/S% FC\/40 FTR FT% 2P% 3P% 3PA%\nProjection                98   22   3\/8   25  25  0\/3   3.2   33 71% 44% 31%  37%<\/pre>\n<p>\nLewis\u2019s assist rate is already the highest projected in the class \u2013 I bet it\u2019s higher. His shooting probably isn\u2019t quite as good as the current projection. He\u2019ll be backing up Lorenzo Brown, at least for now, and he\u2019ll build up a quick following, since there may not be a more fun point guard to watch in the country. I like Warren\u2019s projection a lot, though it could probably do with a bit of a push toward volume and away from efficiency.  He\u2019s a better shooter than he\u2019s currently given credit for, as well. Purvis\u2019s looks great to me; his sky-high assist rate in the EYBL seems like it\u2019ll be tough for him to maintain in college.<\/p>\n<p><b>North Carolina<\/b><br \/>\n<u>Marcus Paige, #22, 6\u20191 PG, Linn-Mar (Marion, IA)<\/u><\/p>\n<pre>                   G\/Min ORtg %Pos OR\/DR% A% TO%  B\/S% FC\/40 FTR FT% 2P% 3P% 3PA%\nProjection               103   23   3\/9   24  22  1\/2   3.2   42 73% 48% 33%  38%\nAll Iowa Attack   20\/558 113   22   4\/9   18  14  1\/3   1.4   17 83% 52% 34%  29%<\/pre>\n<p>\n<u>Brice Johnson, #34, 6\u20199 PF, Edisto (Cordova, SC)<\/u><\/p>\n<pre>                   G\/Min ORtg %Pos OR\/DR% A% TO%  B\/S% FC\/40 FTR FT% 2P% 3P% 3PA%\nProjection               101   19  11\/16   7  19  5\/2   4.8   42 63% 50% 25%  13%\nCP3               15\/291 139   19  10\/25   4  10 10\/2   5.8   39 68% 74% 67%   3%<\/pre>\n<p>\n<u>Joel James, #60, 6\u201910 C, Dwyer (Ft. Lauderdale, FL)<\/u><\/p>\n<pre>                         ORtg %Pos OR\/DR% A% TO%  B\/S% FC\/40 FTR FT% 2P% 3P% 3PA%\nProjection                96   17  12\/16   6  22  8\/1   5.7   44 51% 50% 15%   3%<\/pre>\n<p>\n<u>J.P. Tokoto, #70, 6\u20196 SF, Menomonee Falls (WI)<\/u><\/p>\n<pre>                         ORtg %Pos OR\/DR% A% TO%  B\/S% FC\/40 FTR FT% 2P% 3P% 3PA%\nProjection                98   19   7\/13  10  20  2\/2   3.7   34 66% 47% 26%  30%<\/pre>\n<p>\nTokoto will be buried behind a multitude of wing options. James and Johnson both would not traditionally find themselves starting roles for the Heels, but James Michael McAdoo is unlikely to play center and that means they\u2019ll mostly be fighting Desmond Hubert and each other for the job. I\u2019d push Johnson\u2019s usage rate to 16 percent or so, but up his offensive rating to 105-110. He was extraordinarily efficient in every way in the EYBL and there\u2019s no reason to believe he can\u2019t translate much of that success. James\u2019s and Tokoto\u2019s numbers look correctly reserved. Paige probably won\u2019t use so many possessions, and I\u2019d be surprised if either his assist rate or his turnover rate ended up being as high as currently projected.<\/p>\n<p><b>Virginia<\/b><br \/>\n<u>Justin Anderson, #49, 6\u20195 SF, Montrose Christian (Spotsylvania, VA)<\/u><\/p>\n<pre>                   G\/Min ORtg %Pos OR\/DR% A% TO%  B\/S% FC\/40 FTR FT% 2P% 3P% 3PA%\nProjection               103   20   7\/14  10  17  3\/2   3.6   39 69% 48% 26%  31%\nBoo Williams      14\/348 116   26   6\/16  16  13  6\/2   2.9   41 61% 55% 37%  45%<\/pre>\n<p>\n<u>Evan Nolte, #52, 6\u20197 SF, Milton (Alpharetta, GA)<\/u><\/p>\n<pre>                   G\/Min ORtg %Pos OR\/DR% A% TO%  B\/S% FC\/40 FTR FT% 2P% 3P% 3PA%\nProjection               102   19   7\/14   9  17  3\/2   3.9   39 68% 50% 26%  31%\nSouthern Kings    10\/200 106   23   6\/14  10  11  2\/1   4.8   32 66% 46% 32%  49%<\/pre>\n<p>\n<u>Mike Tobey, #80, 6\u201911 C, Blair Academy (Monroe, NY)<\/u><\/p>\n<pre>                   G\/Min ORtg %Pos OR\/DR% A% TO%  B\/S% FC\/40 FTR FT% 2P% 3P% 3PA%\nProjection                95   17  11\/16   4  22  7\/1   5.8   47 55% 52% 17%   7%\nNew York Gauchos  11\/223 114   18  13\/26   1  15 11\/1   5.9   16 62% 56%  0%   0%<\/pre>\n<p>\nAnderson will almost certainly start, and Tobey may out of lack of bigs. Nolte certainly could, but has a few more experienced wings to beat out. Nolte\u2019s projection looks just a tad optimistic, while I expect more out of Anderson and Tobey. Anderson\u2019s a better shooter than he\u2019s portrayed as and he commands more offense. Tobey is a monster rebounder.<\/p>\n<p><b>Wake Forest<\/b><br \/>\n<u>Codi Miller-McIntyre, #79, 6\u20192 PG, Hargrave Military (Charlotte, NC)<\/u><\/p>\n<pre>                         ORtg %Pos OR\/DR% A% TO%  B\/S% FC\/40 FTR FT% 2P% 3P% 3PA%\nProjection                90   20   2\/8   22  25  0\/2   3.6   35 68% 43% 27%  39%<\/pre>\n<p>\nMiller-McIntyre will probably be handed the reins to the Demon Deacons\u2019 offense, and I think he\u2019ll do OK. I\u2019d expect him to score a little more efficiently, though I do think turnovers could be a problem early on.<\/p>\n<p><\/p>\n<h4>Big East<\/h4>\n<p>\n<b>Connecticut<\/b><br \/>\n<u>Omar Calhoun, #32, 6\u20193 SG, Christ the King (Brooklyn, NY)<\/u><\/p>\n<pre>                   G\/Min ORtg %Pos OR\/DR% A% TO%  B\/S% FC\/40 FTR FT% 2P% 3P% 3PA%\nProjection               101   20   4\/11  13  18  2\/2   3.4   30 68% 48% 32%  42%\nNew York Gauchos  15\/408 125   32   5\/10   7  11  1\/3   3\/2   51 89% 44% 43%  39%<\/pre>\n<p>\nCalhoun may start the season behind returning guards Shabazz Napier and Ryan Boatright, but I\u2019d be shocked if he doesn\u2019t force his way into the starting lineup by year\u2019s end. Calhoun should outshoot this projection at a higher usage rate with fewer turnovers. Few played better in the EYBL \u2013 he\u2019s a key test case for their translation effectiveness.<\/p>\n<p><b>Georgetown<\/b><br \/>\n<u>D\u2019Vauntes Smith-Rivera, #58, 6\u20193 SG, Oak Hill Academy (Indianapolis, IN)<\/u><\/p>\n<pre>                   G\/Min ORtg %Pos OR\/DR% A% TO%  B\/S% FC\/40 FTR FT% 2P% 3P% 3PA%\nProjection               100   20   4\/10  14  19  1\/2   3.2   28 70% 45% 31%  44%\nIndy Spiece       20\/559 120   27   2\/11  21  10  0\/3   2.9   45 78% 43% 44%  27%<\/pre>\n<p>\nMore slasher than his projection indicates. Smith-Rivera was really good in the EYBL, although his style doesn\u2019t lend itself to as low a turnover rate as he posted in the summer league. His numbers, overall, look OK. Otto Porter might be an All-American, but DSR could potentially outplay everyone else on the Georgetown roster.<\/p>\n<p><b>Louisville<\/b><br \/>\n<u>Terry Rozier, #74, 6\u20191 PG, Shaker Heights (OH)<\/u><\/p>\n<pre>                   G\/Min ORtg %Pos OR\/DR% A% TO%  B\/S% FC\/40 FTR FT% 2P% 3P% 3PA%\nProjection                95   21   2\/9   23  23  1\/2   3.4   40 72% 43% 27%  41%\nAll Ohio Red      20\/530 121   22   4\/9   22  15  1\/4   2.7   21 84% 43% 48%  38%<\/pre>\n<p>\n<u>Montrezl Harrell, #89, 6\u20198 PF, Hargrave Military (Tarboro, NC)<\/u><\/p>\n<pre>                         ORtg %Pos OR\/DR% A% TO%  B\/S% FC\/40 FTR FT% 2P% 3P% 3PA%\nProjection                98   18  10\/16   6  20  4\/2   4.7   45 62% 49% 26%  15%<\/pre>\n<p>\nIt\u2019s unlikely that either will see much time for a stacked Louisville team, but Rozier is an excellent shooter and that should be recognized.<\/p>\n<p><b>Marquette<\/b><br \/>\n<u>Steve Taylor, #83, 6\u20197 SF, Simeon Vocational (Chicago, IL)<\/u><\/p>\n<pre>                   G\/Min ORtg %Pos OR\/DR% A% TO%  B\/S% FC\/40 FTR FT% 2P% 3P% 3PA%\nProjection                97   18   7\/13   9  20  2\/2   3.8   36 65% 48% 26%  30%\nMac Irvin Fire    20\/535 112   21   9\/17   4  11  2\/1   1.7   12 76% 54% 29%  48%<\/pre>\n<p>\nTaylor will probably be buried on the bench. He shouldn\u2019t turn the ball over quite as much as his projection expects, and he shouldn\u2019t take as much as 18 percent of the Eagles\u2019 offense, either.<\/p>\n<p><b>Notre Dame<\/b><br \/>\n<u>Cameron Biedscheid, #64, 6\u20196 SF, Cardinal Ritter (St. Louis, MO)<\/u><\/p>\n<pre>                   G\/Min ORtg %Pos OR\/DR% A% TO%  B\/S% FC\/40 FTR FT% 2P% 3P% 3PA%\nProjection                97   18   8\/13  10  20  3\/2   3.9   33 61% 47% 25%  27%\nSt. Louis Eagles  12\/261  96   33   2\/10  12  19  3\/0   3.1   28 75% 59% 17%  31%<\/pre>\n<p>\nBiedscheid will likely come off the bench in his first season for the Irish. I\u2019d expect him to be a reasonably-high volume (maybe 22 percent usage), somewhat-inefficient scorer. He had to carry a bad AAU team\u2019s offense in the EYBL, but I don\u2019t think he\u2019s a shotjacker. He\u2019s not the rebounder the projections make him out to be. <\/p>\n<p><b>Pittsburgh<\/b><br \/>\n<u>Steven Adams, #6, 6\u201910 C, Notre Dame Prep (Wellington, New Zealand)<\/u><\/p>\n<pre>                         ORtg %Pos OR\/DR% A% TO%  B\/S% FC\/40 FTR FT% 2P% 3P% 3PA%\nProjection                97   20  12\/17   6  20  9\/1   5.1   52 51% 51% 10%   0%<\/pre>\n<p>\n<u>James Robinson, #43, 6\u20193 PG, DeMatha Catholic (Hyattsville, MD)<\/u><\/p>\n<pre>                   G\/Min ORtg %Pos OR\/DR% A% TO%  B\/S% FC\/40 FTR FT% 2P% 3P% 3PA%\nProjection                98   21   2\/9   22  22  1\/2   3.7   39 70% 47% 30%  39%\nTeam Takeover     21\/502 117   22   5\/11  24  16  1\/3   3.2   75 76% 52% 20%   6%<\/pre>\n<p>\nI doubt that either of these two starts next season. Adams will be a big rebounder off the bench, but may not be ready to score in the Big East. Robinson\u2019s a stud \u2013 Woodall\u2019s way too good to sit for a freshman, but I\u2019d be sorely tempted to anyway. Robinson won\u2019t turn the ball over 22 percent of the time, and he definitely won\u2019t shoot that many three-pointers.<\/p>\n<p><b>Providence<\/b><br \/>\n<u>Ricardo Ledo, #21, 6\u20196 SG, South Kent (Providence, RI)<\/u><\/p>\n<pre>                   G\/Min ORtg %Pos OR\/DR% A% TO%  B\/S% FC\/40 FTR FT% 2P% 3P% 3PA%\nProjection               101   21   4\/11  13  18  2\/2   3.4   32 68% 49% 32%  42%\nAlbany City Rocks 20\/548 105   30   4\/14  16  13  1\/1   3.0   33 69% 53% 30%  45%<\/pre>\n<p>\n<u>Kris Dunn, #23, 6\u20193 PG, New London (CT)<\/u><\/p>\n<pre>                         ORtg %Pos OR\/DR% A% TO%  B\/S% FC\/40 FTR FT% 2P% 3P% 3PA%\nProjection                96   21   4\/8   24  24  2\/2   3.5   35 65% 47% 30%  33%<\/pre>\n<p>\nWhat once looked like the backcourt of the future is in danger of falling apart. Dunn will be out four to six months with a shoulder injury and Ledo\u2019s academic eligibility is up for grabs. Dunn\u2019s projection looks reasonable, while Ledo\u2019s should be shifted toward volume and away from efficiency, maybe an offensive rating of 93 at a 26 percent usage rate.<\/p>\n<p><b>St. John\u2019s<\/b><br \/>\n<u>Chris Obekpa, #77, 6\u20198 C, Our Savior New American (Centereach, NY)<\/u><\/p>\n<pre>                   G\/Min ORtg %Pos OR\/DR% A% TO%  B\/S% FC\/40 FTR FT% 2P% 3P% 3PA%\nProjection                95   17  12\/15   6  23  8\/1   5.5   46 51% 49% 15%   4%\nMetro Hawks        9\/192 114   12  14\/22   4  11 14\/1   4.2   32 33% 54%  0%   3%<\/pre>\n<p>\nObekpa will be a backup big for the Red Storm. He won\u2019t do much on offense (probably 10-11 percent usage rate), he\u2019ll block a million shots, he\u2019ll rebound, and he\u2019ll shoot some ugly free throws. If he takes a three, it\u2019ll be at some kind of buzzer at the end of a bad play for St. John\u2019s. Obekpa has very clear strengths and very clear weaknesses.<\/p>\n<p><b>Syracuse<\/b><br \/>\n<u>DaJuan Coleman, #14, 6\u20199 C, Jamesville-Dewitt (NY)<\/u><\/p>\n<pre>                   G\/Min ORtg %Pos OR\/DR% A% TO%  B\/S% FC\/40 FTR FT% 2P% 3P% 3PA%\nProjection               100   21  11\/16   7  21  7\/2   4.9   50 58% 50% 15%   3%\nAlbany City Rocks 20\/490 109   25   9\/27   6  12  3\/1   3.6   87 56% 56%  0%   1%<\/pre>\n<p>\n<u>Jerami Grant, #37, 6\u20197 PF, DeMatha Catholic (Hyattsville, MD)<\/u><br \/>\n                   G\/Min ORtg %Pos OR\/DR% A% TO%  B\/S% FC\/40 FTR FT% 2P% 3P% 3PA%<\/p>\n<pre>Projection               102   19  11\/16   8  19  4\/2   4.6   41 64% 49% 26%  13%\nTeam Takeover     20\/492  85   34   7\/10   8  13  1\/1   3.8   65 60% 32% 11%   3%<\/pre>\n<p>\nColeman\u2019s offensive numbers look pretty accurate, though he\u2019ll be a better defensive rebounder and a worse shotblocker than his projection claims. If he doesn\u2019t start, he\u2019ll be a heavily-used rotation player, certainly. Grant could find himself stuck behind the long list of returning Orange forwards, though. I don\u2019t know quite what to do with Grant\u2019s projection \u2013 he was on a good team, but had a low offensive rating at an enormous usage rate. He shot 32\/11\/60, which is just awful. There\u2019s no way he\u2019s that heavily relied-upon for Syracuse, though. I\u2019d be surprised if he rebounded that well, but I\u2019ll knock Grant to the side of the efficiency spectrum just a bit \u2013 maybe 97 offensive rating \/ 23 percent usage or so. Both players will get to the foul line more than their projections state.<\/p>\n<p><b>Villanova<\/b><br \/>\n<u>Ryan Arcidiacono, #46, 6\u20193 PG, Neshaminy (Langhorne, PA)<\/u><\/p>\n<pre>                         ORtg %Pos OR\/DR% A% TO%  B\/S% FC\/40 FTR FT% 2P% 3P% 3PA%\nProjection                94   20   3\/9   23  25  1\/2   3.7   33 68% 46% 30%  37%<\/pre>\n<p>\n<u>Daniel Ochefu, #54, 6\u20199 C, Westtown (PA)<\/u><\/p>\n<pre>                         ORtg %Pos OR\/DR% A% TO%  B\/S% FC\/40 FTR FT% 2P% 3P% 3PA%\nProjection                97   18  11\/16   5  22  7\/2   5.6   45 56% 50% 16%   5%<\/pre>\n<p>\nOchefu\u2019s projection looks great to me. Arcidiacono\u2019s assists will probably be a bit higher and his turnovers a bit lower. Arch will probably be put in charge of the offense from early on, and he\u2019ll do fine. Ochefu will be behind at least Mouphtaou Yarou and JayVaughn Pinkston for now, and that\u2019s probably for the best.<\/p>\n","protected":false},"excerpt":{"rendered":"<p>A couple weeks ago, I left you with some crude freshman projections for the ESPNU Top 100. Today, I\u2019m here to fine-tune them some. Forty-eight of the hundred took part in the 2011 Nike Elite Youth Basketball League, for which I\u2019ve compiled advanced statistics. Worth knowing about those stats: The typical possession\u2019s worth about 1.1 [&hellip;]<\/p>\n","protected":false},"author":2,"featured_media":0,"comment_status":"closed","ping_status":"closed","sticky":false,"template":"","format":"standard","meta":[],"categories":[1],"tags":[],"_links":{"self":[{"href":"https:\/\/kenpom.com\/blog\/wp-json\/wp\/v2\/posts\/407"}],"collection":[{"href":"https:\/\/kenpom.com\/blog\/wp-json\/wp\/v2\/posts"}],"about":[{"href":"https:\/\/kenpom.com\/blog\/wp-json\/wp\/v2\/types\/post"}],"author":[{"embeddable":true,"href":"https:\/\/kenpom.com\/blog\/wp-json\/wp\/v2\/users\/2"}],"replies":[{"embeddable":true,"href":"https:\/\/kenpom.com\/blog\/wp-json\/wp\/v2\/comments?post=407"}],"version-history":[{"count":1,"href":"https:\/\/kenpom.com\/blog\/wp-json\/wp\/v2\/posts\/407\/revisions"}],"predecessor-version":[{"id":1041,"href":"https:\/\/kenpom.com\/blog\/wp-json\/wp\/v2\/posts\/407\/revisions\/1041"}],"wp:attachment":[{"href":"https:\/\/kenpom.com\/blog\/wp-json\/wp\/v2\/media?parent=407"}],"wp:term":[{"taxonomy":"category","embeddable":true,"href":"https:\/\/kenpom.com\/blog\/wp-json\/wp\/v2\/categories?post=407"},{"taxonomy":"post_tag","embeddable":true,"href":"https:\/\/kenpom.com\/blog\/wp-json\/wp\/v2\/tags?post=407"}],"curies":[{"name":"wp","href":"https:\/\/api.w.org\/{rel}","templated":true}]}}