{"id":406,"date":"2012-07-09T07:04:35","date_gmt":"2012-07-09T13:04:35","guid":{"rendered":"http:\/\/67.227.157.91\/~kenpom\/wp_blog\/comments-on-2012-freshman-projections-part-2\/"},"modified":"2016-05-07T19:45:15","modified_gmt":"2016-05-08T01:45:15","slug":"comments-on-2012-freshman-projections-part-2","status":"publish","type":"post","link":"https:\/\/kenpom.com\/blog\/comments-on-2012-freshman-projections-part-2\/","title":{"rendered":"Comments on 2012 freshman projections: Part 2"},"content":{"rendered":"

[Drew is in the midst of a three-part series to critique his statistical projections of the ESPNU Top 100 incoming freshmen<\/a>. Last Thursday, he handled prospects headed to the ACC or Big East<\/a>. Today, he tackles the Big Ten and Big 12. On Thursday, he’ll take care of the rest.]<\/i><\/p>\n

Big Ten<\/h4>\n

\nIndiana<\/b>
\nYogi Ferrell, #24, 5\u201911 PG, Park Tudor (Greenfield, IN)<\/u><\/p>\n

                         ORtg %Pos OR\/DR% A% TO%  B\/S% FC\/40 FTR FT% 2P% 3P% 3PA%\nProjection               105   23   3\/8   25  22  1\/3   3.0   41 74% 47% 34%  38%<\/pre>\n
\nJeremy Hollowell, #42, 6\u20197 SF, Lawrence Central (Indianapolis, IN)<\/u><\/p>\n
                         ORtg %Pos OR\/DR% A% TO%  B\/S% FC\/40 FTR FT% 2P% 3P% 3PA%\nProjection                99   19   7\/14  10  19  3\/2   3.8   34 66% 49% 26%  28%<\/pre>\n
\nHanner Mosquera-Perea, #71, 6\u20198 PF, La Lumiere (La Porte, IN)<\/u><\/p>\n
                         ORtg %Pos OR\/DR% A% TO%  B\/S% FC\/40 FTR FT% 2P% 3P% 3PA%\nProjection                98   17  11\/16   7  20  5\/1   5.0   41 57% 49% 25%  12%<\/pre>\n
\nMosquera-Perea and Hollowell\u2019s numbers all look pretty good, and they\u2019re unlikely to see much playing time. Ferrell should start and be very successful right away \u2013 his projection looks solid, as well, actually.<\/p>\n
Iowa<\/b>
\nAdam Woodbury, #39, 6\u201911 C, East Sioux City (IA)<\/u><\/p>\n
                   G\/Min ORtg %Pos OR\/DR% A% TO%  B\/S% FC\/40 FTR FT% 2P% 3P% 3PA%\nProjection                95   17  11\/17   4  21  8\/1   5.8   45 55% 52% 14%   5%\nAll Iowa Attack   20\/418 104   28  11\/21  10  19  3\/1   5.6   42 51% 57% 29%   4%<\/pre>\n
\nMike Gesell, #75, 6\u20191 PG, South Sioux City (NE)<\/u><\/p>\n
                   G\/Min ORtg %Pos OR\/DR% A% TO%  B\/S% FC\/40 FTR FT% 2P% 3P% 3PA%\nProjection                95   21   2\/9   23  23  1\/2   3.4   40 72% 43% 27%  41%\nAll Iowa Attack   20\/549 115   21   3\/9   19  11  1\/3   2.0   39 75% 49% 32%  23%<\/pre>\n
\nWoodbury won the NBPA Top 100 Camp Most Valuable Player award \u2013 an honor taken by Kendall Marshall and Chane Behanan at the two previous camps \u2013 after an incredible tournament run. An Aaron White-like freshman campaign should surprise no one \u2013 I\u2019ll set my prediction at half the projection line here (sans blocks) and half Aaron White\u2019s 2012 (sans three-point attempts). Gesell\u2019s probably too careful to turn the ball over on 23 percent of his possessions, and he\u2019s probably not enough of a scoring threat to use more than 16-17 percent of his team\u2019s possessions as a freshman. Though Woodbury\u2019s the better player, it\u2019s more likely that he gets buried on the bench behind White, Melsahn Basabe, and Zach McCabe than it is that Gesell isn\u2019t the Hawkeye point guard.<\/p>\n
Michigan<\/b>
\nGlenn Robinson, #18, 6\u20196 SF, Lake Central (St. John, IN)<\/u><\/p>\n
                         ORtg %Pos OR\/DR% A% TO%  B\/S% FC\/40 FTR FT% 2P% 3P% 3PA%\nProjection               104   22   7\/13  12  18  2\/2   3.2   37 69% 49% 28%  27%<\/pre>\n
\nMitch McGary, #27, 6\u201910 PF, Brewster Academy (Chesterton, IN)<\/u><\/p>\n
                         ORtg %Pos OR\/DR% A% TO%  B\/S% FC\/40 FTR FT% 2P% 3P% 3PA%\nProjection               101   19  11\/17   7  19  5\/2   4.7   43 63% 50% 25%  12%<\/pre>\n
\nNik Stauskas, #76, 6\u20196 SF, St. Mark\u2019s (Mississauga, ONT)<\/u><\/p>\n
                         ORtg %Pos OR\/DR% A% TO%  B\/S% FC\/40 FTR FT% 2P% 3P% 3PA%\nProjection                97   18   7\/13   9  20  2\/2   3.8   35 65% 48% 26%  30%<\/pre>\n
\nRobinson and McGary will slide right into the starting lineup, while Stauskas will replace the departed fill-it-up shooters from yesteryear. Stauskas is a better shooter, though a less-likely slasher, than he\u2019s currently portrayed in the projections. I expect McGary to be slightly less involved in the offense but better on the glass. He won\u2019t be a danger to try and hit threes, either. Robinson\u2019s numbers look good.<\/p>\n
Michigan State<\/b>
\nGary Harris, #11, 6\u20194 SG, Hamilton Southeastern (Indianapolis, IN)<\/u><\/p>\n
                         ORtg %Pos OR\/DR% A% TO%  B\/S% FC\/40 FTR FT% 2P% 3P% 3PA%\nProjection               108   23   4\/11  14  15  2\/2   2.9   40 72% 50% 33%  44%<\/pre>\n
\nKenny Kaminski, #85, 6\u20197 PF, Medina (OH)<\/u><\/p>\n
                   G\/Min ORtg %Pos OR\/DR% A% TO%  B\/S% FC\/40 FTR FT% 2P% 3P% 3PA%\nProjection                99   18  10\/16   6  20  4\/2   4.8   44 62% 49% 26%  15%\nAll Ohio Red      20\/460 110   22   5\/11   5  17  2\/1   4.1   22 73% 46% 40%  57%<\/pre>\n
\nMatt Costello, #86, 6\u20199 PF, Bay City Western (Linwood, MI)<\/u><\/p>\n
                         ORtg %Pos OR\/DR% A% TO%  B\/S% FC\/40 FTR FT% 2P% 3P% 3PA%\nProjection                98   18  10\/16   6  20  4\/2   4.9   44 61% 50% 26%  15%<\/pre>\n
\nDenzel Valentine, #97, 6\u20195 SF, Sexton (Lansing, MI)<\/u><\/p>\n
                         ORtg %Pos OR\/DR% A% TO%  B\/S% FC\/40 FTR FT% 2P% 3P% 3PA%\nProjection                99   19   6\/14   8  18  1\/2   3.5   46 67% 47% 25%  34%<\/pre>\n
\nHarris is a starter, and he\u2019ll be a Big Ten Freshman of the Year challenger. Valentine will probably get the most rotation minutes, though most of what he does well evades the stat sheet \u2013 his numbers are a little optimistic, in my opinion. Kaminski\u2019s just an oddly-sized spot-up shooter. His rebounding numbers are too high, his shooting numbers are too low \u2013 half his field goal tries will be threes. Costello\u2019s projection looks fine.<\/p>\n
Purdue<\/b>
\nA.J. Hammons, #81, 7\u20190 C, Oak Hill Academy (Carmel, IN)<\/u><\/p>\n
                   G\/Min ORtg %Pos OR\/DR% A% TO%  B\/S% FC\/40 FTR FT% 2P% 3P% 3PA%\nProjection                94   15  11\/16   4  23  8\/1   6.0   47 49% 53% 16%   4%\nIndy Spiece       15\/303 116   14   8\/18   3  15  6\/1   5.4   56 44% 66%  0%   0%<\/pre>\n
\nRapheal Davis, #87, 6\u20195 SG, La Lumiere (Ft. Wayne, IN)<\/u><\/p>\n
                   G\/Min ORtg %Pos OR\/DR% A% TO%  B\/S% FC\/40 FTR FT% 2P% 3P% 3PA%\nProjection                95   19   3\/11  12  19  1\/2   3.6   32 66% 46% 30%  45%\nIndy Spiece       10\/263 105   28   7\/7   16  19  0\/2   4.7   39 67% 52% 32%  16%<\/pre>\n
\nRonnie Johnson, #92, 5\u201910 PG, North Central (Indianapolis, IN)<\/u><\/p>\n
                         ORtg %Pos OR\/DR% A% TO%  B\/S% FC\/40 FTR FT% 2P% 3P% 3PA%\nProjection                89   22   2\/8   23  26  0\/3   3.1   38 70% 39% 25%  39%<\/pre>\n
\nHammons probably has the least optimistic projection of the Top 100 players, and that\u2019s about right. He shouldn\u2019t see much floor time this year. Johnson has as good a case as any Boiler for the starting point guard job, and I wouldn\u2019t be surprised to see Davis starting as well. Davis is more slasher than he\u2019s presented here, and Johnson is a better shooter who probably won\u2019t take such a large portion of the offense.<\/p>\n
Wisconsin<\/b>
\nSam Dekker, #17, 6\u20197 SF, Sheboygan (WI) Lutheran<\/u><\/p>\n
                         ORtg %Pos OR\/DR% A% TO%  B\/S% FC\/40 FTR FT% 2P% 3P% 3PA%\nProjection               105   21   7\/15  10  16  3\/2   3.4   44 69% 50% 26%  29%<\/pre>\n
\nDekker will comfortably break 70 percent from the free throw line and 30 percent from behind the three-point arc. He\u2019s another very real candidate for Big Ten Freshman of the Year, widely considered the biggest snub from the McDonald\u2019s All-America Game. He\u2019ll definitely start, and he could absolutely become the team\u2019s go-to guy right away. I\u2019ll put him down for a 22-23 percent usage rate.<\/p>\n
Big 12<\/h4>\n
\nBaylor<\/b>
\nIsaiah Austin, #3, 7\u20190 C, Grace Prep (Arlington, TX)<\/u><\/p>\n
                         ORtg %Pos OR\/DR% A% TO%  B\/S% FC\/40 FTR FT% 2P% 3P% 3PA%\nProjection               101   21  11\/18   5  19  8\/2   4.7   53 56% 54% 11%   3%<\/pre>\n
\nRicardo Gathers, #36, 6\u20197 PF, Riverside Academy (Laplace, LA)<\/u><\/p>\n
                   G\/Min ORtg %Pos OR\/DR% A% TO%  B\/S% FC\/40 FTR FT% 2P% 3P% 3PA%\nProjection               106   20  10\/17   7  17  5\/2   4.6   47 66% 50% 26%  15%\nLouisiana Select  20\/553  93   36  12\/26   8  12  4\/2   2.9   53 46% 47%  4%   7%<\/pre>\n
\nL.J. Rose, #63, 6\u20193 PG, Westbury Christian (Houston, TX)<\/u><\/p>\n
                   G\/Min ORtg %Pos OR\/DR% A% TO%  B\/S% FC\/40 FTR FT% 2P% 3P% 3PA%\nProjection                93   20   2\/8   23  25  1\/2   3.7   33 68% 44% 29%  38%\nHouston Hoops     20\/578 104   14   3\/11  28  23  0\/2   2.6   33 65% 40% 32%  45%<\/pre>\n
\nAustin will almost certainly start for the Bears right away, and L.J. Rose will serve a year as understudy to Pierre Jackson. I wouldn\u2019t be at all surprised to see the college-ready Gathers starting over the underrated Cory Jefferson. I don\u2019t like any of these projection lines. Austin\u2019s a much more regular (and effective) three-point shooter than the system projected. He\u2019ll get pushed around more on the boards, and he probably won\u2019t get to the free throw line so much (though he\u2019ll make more free throws). I\u2019d expect to see his percentages higher at a 16-17 percent usage rate. Rose\u2019s projection is way off \u2013 his assist rate will probably be even higher, but I\u2019d be surprised if his usage rate was as high as 14 percent. Gathers will be one of the best freshmen rebounders in the nation, and he\u2019ll command the ball more. Don\u2019t be fooled by his statline \u2013 Gathers played on a weak AAU team where he was the clear star. I\u2019d be surprised to see him continue to demand anywhere near so much offense so inefficiently. He\u2019s probably less of a three-point threat than he\u2019s here given credit for, as well.<\/p>\n
Iowa State<\/b>
\nGeorges Niang, #56, 6\u20197 PF, Tilton School (Methuen, MA)<\/u><\/p>\n
                   G\/Min ORtg %Pos OR\/DR% A% TO%  B\/S% FC\/40 FTR FT% 2P% 3P% 3PA%\nProjection               105   19  10\/16   7  17  4\/2   4.7   46 66% 49% 26%  16%\nBABC              22\/448 127   27  10\/17   7  16  1\/3   6.2   31 84% 63% 50%   1%<\/pre>\n
\nNiang will shoot considerably better than his projection dictates (while attempting fewer three-pointers), though his rebounding and shotblocking rates are optimistic. There\u2019s an outside chance Niang gets stashed behind Melvin Ejim and Will Clyburn and Percy Gibson, and that\u2019s a shame because if he doesn\u2019t there\u2019s an outside chance he takes Big 12 Freshman of the Year.<\/p>\n
Kansas<\/b>
\nPerry Ellis, #35, 6\u20198 PF, Wichita (KS) Heights<\/u><\/p>\n
                         ORtg %Pos OR\/DR% A% TO%  B\/S% FC\/40 FTR FT% 2P% 3P% 3PA%\nProjection               102   19  11\/16   7  19  4\/2   4.7   42 64% 49% 25%  13%<\/pre>\n
\nAndrew White, #48, 6\u20196 SF, The Miller School (Chester, VA)<\/u><\/p>\n
                         ORtg %Pos OR\/DR% A% TO%  B\/S% FC\/40 FTR FT% 2P% 3P% 3PA%\nProjection                98   18   8\/13  11  20  4\/2   3.8   33 62% 48% 25%  26%<\/pre>\n
\nI\u2019m not sure either of these guys are ready to produce at the high-major level. White\u2019s numbers look about right to me, though I\u2019d push Ellis\u2019s more toward White\u2019s. While we\u2019re here, it\u2019s worth mentioning that Ben McLemore is apparently ready to explode after his academic redshirt.<\/p>\n
Oklahoma State<\/b>
\nMarcus Smart, #10, 6\u20193 SG, Marcus (Flower Mound, TX)<\/u><\/p>\n
                         ORtg %Pos OR\/DR% A% TO%  B\/S% FC\/40 FTR FT% 2P% 3P% 3PA%\nProjection               108   23   4\/12  14  15  2\/2   2.9   40 72% 50% 33%  44%<\/pre>\n
\nI\u2019d consider Smart to be the frontrunner for Big 12 Freshman of the Year, so understand that when I write this. I think there\u2019s a possibility that Smart may have reached the Roger Franklin Zone. Roger Franklin is a once-Top 100 ranked player who went to Oklahoma State and struggled. What I mean by the Roger Franklin Zone is this: Sometimes the recruiting world can get so swept up in elite intangibles that people start rooting too hard for a kid and don\u2019t realize that they\u2019re creating overly high expectations for him. His numbers here look a little overoptimistic to me, especially as a shooter, but pessimistic as a rebounder. Smart is an outstanding player and probably is the most highly-respected by coaches of any player in the class. He\u2019s a winner. There aren\u2019t ten freshmen I expect more of \u2013 I\u2019m just afraid that we may have set an unreachable bar for him.<\/p>\n
Texas<\/b>
\nCameron Ridley, #8, 6\u201910 C, Bush (Ft. Bend, TX)<\/u><\/p>\n
                         ORtg %Pos OR\/DR% A% TO%  B\/S% FC\/40 FTR FT% 2P% 3P% 3PA%\nProjection               101   21  11\/16   7  20  7\/2   4.7   52 58% 51% 14%   3%<\/pre>\n
\nPrince Ibeh, #59, 6\u201910 C, Naaman Forest (Garland, TX)<\/u><\/p>\n
                   G\/Min ORtg %Pos OR\/DR% A% TO%  B\/S% FC\/40 FTR FT% 2P% 3P% 3PA%\nProjection                96   17  11\/16   4  22  7\/1   5.9   45 55% 52% 16%   6%\nTeam Texas Titans 16\/387 111   11   9\/16   3  19  9\/0   5.3   41 22% 70%  0%   0%<\/pre>\n
\nJavan Felix, #72, 5\u201911 PG, St. Augustine (New Orleans, LA)<\/u><\/p>\n
                         ORtg %Pos OR\/DR% A% TO%  B\/S% FC\/40 FTR FT% 2P% 3P% 3PA%\nProjection                93   21   2\/8   24  25  0\/3   3.2   34 70% 41% 28%  38%<\/pre>\n
\nConnor Lammert, #93, 6\u201910 PF, Winston Churchill (San Antonio, TX)<\/u><\/p>\n
                         ORtg %Pos OR\/DR% A% TO%  B\/S% FC\/40 FTR FT% 2P% 3P% 3PA%\nProjection                97   17  10\/17   4  20  4\/2   5.2   46 60% 53% 27%  16%<\/pre>\n
\nRidley will start, and I like his projections here. The other three will have to fight for their minutes. Lammert won\u2019t rebound that well, but he can shoot a little bit. Ibeh will be considerably less active offensively than his projection. Felix\u2019s looks pretty good, as well, though he shouldn\u2019t attempt that many threes.<\/p>\n","protected":false},"excerpt":{"rendered":"
[Drew is in the midst of a three-part series to critique his statistical projections of the ESPNU Top 100 incoming freshmen. Last Thursday, he handled prospects headed to the ACC or Big East. Today, he tackles the Big Ten and Big 12. On Thursday, he’ll take care of the rest.] Big Ten Indiana Yogi Ferrell, […]<\/p>\n","protected":false},"author":2,"featured_media":0,"comment_status":"closed","ping_status":"closed","sticky":false,"template":"","format":"standard","meta":[],"categories":[1],"tags":[],"_links":{"self":[{"href":"https:\/\/kenpom.com\/blog\/wp-json\/wp\/v2\/posts\/406"}],"collection":[{"href":"https:\/\/kenpom.com\/blog\/wp-json\/wp\/v2\/posts"}],"about":[{"href":"https:\/\/kenpom.com\/blog\/wp-json\/wp\/v2\/types\/post"}],"author":[{"embeddable":true,"href":"https:\/\/kenpom.com\/blog\/wp-json\/wp\/v2\/users\/2"}],"replies":[{"embeddable":true,"href":"https:\/\/kenpom.com\/blog\/wp-json\/wp\/v2\/comments?post=406"}],"version-history":[{"count":1,"href":"https:\/\/kenpom.com\/blog\/wp-json\/wp\/v2\/posts\/406\/revisions"}],"predecessor-version":[{"id":1042,"href":"https:\/\/kenpom.com\/blog\/wp-json\/wp\/v2\/posts\/406\/revisions\/1042"}],"wp:attachment":[{"href":"https:\/\/kenpom.com\/blog\/wp-json\/wp\/v2\/media?parent=406"}],"wp:term":[{"taxonomy":"category","embeddable":true,"href":"https:\/\/kenpom.com\/blog\/wp-json\/wp\/v2\/categories?post=406"},{"taxonomy":"post_tag","embeddable":true,"href":"https:\/\/kenpom.com\/blog\/wp-json\/wp\/v2\/tags?post=406"}],"curies":[{"name":"wp","href":"https:\/\/api.w.org\/{rel}","templated":true}]}}