{"id":405,"date":"2012-07-12T08:29:45","date_gmt":"2012-07-12T14:29:45","guid":{"rendered":"http:\/\/67.227.157.91\/~kenpom\/wp_blog\/comments-on-2012-freshman-projections-part-3\/"},"modified":"2016-05-07T19:45:21","modified_gmt":"2016-05-08T01:45:21","slug":"comments-on-2012-freshman-projections-part-3","status":"publish","type":"post","link":"https:\/\/kenpom.com\/blog\/comments-on-2012-freshman-projections-part-3\/","title":{"rendered":"Comments on 2012 freshman projections: Part 3"},"content":{"rendered":"

[Drew is in the midst of a three-part series to critique his statistical projections of the ESPNU Top 100 incoming freshmen<\/a>. Last Thursday, he handled prospects headed to the ACC or Big East<\/a>. Monday, he tackled the Big Ten and Big 12<\/a>. Today, he concludes with the Pac-12, SEC, and everybody else.]<\/p>\n

Pac-12<\/h4>\n

\nArizona<\/b>
\nKaleb Tarczewski, #4, 7\u20190 C, St. Mark\u2019s (Claremont, NH)<\/u><\/p>\n

                         ORtg %Pos OR\/DR% A% TO%  B\/S% FC\/40 FTR FT% 2P% 3P% 3PA%\nProjection               101   21  11\/18   6  20  8\/2   4.7   53 57% 52% 12%   3%<\/pre>\n
\nGrant Jerrett, #9, 6\u201910 PF, La Verne (CA) Lutheran<\/u><\/p>\n
                   G\/Min ORtg %Pos OR\/DR% A% TO%  B\/S% FC\/40 FTR FT% 2P% 3P% 3PA%\nProjection               101   20  12\/17   8  18  6\/2   4.5   47 58% 50% 22%   9%\nOakland Soldiers  21\/463 109   30  11\/17   4  19  5\/1   6.0   71 71% 53% 22%   4%<\/pre>\n
\nBrandon Ashley, #16, 6\u20198 PF, Findlay Prep (Oakland, CA)<\/u><\/p>\n
                         ORtg %Pos OR\/DR% A% TO%  B\/S% FC\/40 FTR FT% 2P% 3P% 3PA%\nProjection               103   21  11\/16   8  18  4\/2   4.3   45 64% 50% 25%  12%<\/pre>\n
\nGabe York, #65, 6\u20191 SG, Orange (CA) Lutheran<\/u><\/p>\n
                         ORtg %Pos OR\/DR% A% TO%  B\/S% FC\/40 FTR FT% 2P% 3P% 3PA%\nProjection                97   19   5\/10  14  19  2\/2   3.5   28 64% 45% 29%  42%<\/pre>\n
\nYork, in all likelihood, will be backing up Mark Lyons and Nick Johnson. (Solomon Hill, while we\u2019re here, had an outstanding Kevin Durant Skills Academy a week or so back.) I can\u2019t imagine getting all three five-star bigs on the floor at the same time, so my money\u2019s on Tarczewski and Ashley starting \u2013 Jerrett\u2019s lagging a bit behind them in physical development. I\u2019d adjust Jerrett\u2019s assist and (all) shooting numbers up a couple notches, and his possession percentage down a bit. He\u2019s more skilled and less physically ready than the projection system thinks. Tarczewski\u2019s numbers look good. Ashley is more ball-dominant and more foul-prone than the projections show \u2013 I\u2019d expect him to use at least 23-24 percent of the Wildcats\u2019 possessions, and use them less efficiently than the projections expect. And Ashley\u2019s no threat to take that many three-pointers.<\/p>\n
Colorado<\/b>
\nJosh Scott, #38, 6\u201910 C, Lewis-Palmer (Monument, CO)<\/u><\/p>\n
                         ORtg %Pos OR\/DR% A% TO%  B\/S% FC\/40 FTR FT% 2P% 3P% 3PA%\nProjection               101   19  11\/17   5  19  7\/1   5.4   51 59% 51% 15%   7%<\/pre>\n
\nXavier Johnson, #68, 6\u20196 SF, Mater Dei (Temecula, CA)<\/u><\/p>\n
                         ORtg %Pos OR\/DR% A% TO%  B\/S% FC\/40 FTR FT% 2P% 3P% 3PA%\nProjection                98   18   7\/13  10  20  2\/2   3.8   34 66% 48% 26%  30%<\/pre>\n
\nI like these projections a lot. Scott-Roberson is quite the frontcourt. Johnson could absolutely slide into the 3-spot next to Spencer Dinwiddie and Askia Booker, but if not he\u2019ll be a perfectly acceptable sixth man.<\/p>\n
Oregon<\/b>
\nDominic Artis, #62, 5\u201911 PG, Findlay Prep (Richmond, CA)<\/u><\/p>\n
                   G\/Min ORtg %Pos OR\/DR% A% TO%  B\/S% FC\/40 FTR FT% 2P% 3P% 3PA%\nProjection                97   21   2\/9   23  23  1\/2   3.4   39 72% 44% 29%  40%\nOakland Soldiers  23\/581 108   22   3\/8   20  23  1\/3   2.5   29 75% 48% 40%  37%<\/pre>\n
\nI\u2019d make two changes to Artis\u2019s profile: I bet he shoots better from deep, and I bet his turnover rate is really, really high. He probably starts for Oregon, though it might be better if he played 2-guard to Johnathan Loyd\u2019s 1 for a little while, at least.<\/p>\n
Stanford<\/b>
\nRosco Allen, #66, 6\u20199 SF, Bishop Gorman (Las Vegas, NV)<\/u><\/p>\n
                         ORtg %Pos OR\/DR% A% TO%  B\/S% FC\/40 FTR FT% 2P% 3P% 3PA%\nProjection                97   18   7\/14   9  20  2\/2   4.1   34 64% 50% 26%  30%<\/pre>\n
\nGrant Verhoeven, #88, 6\u20198 C, Central Valley Christian (Visalia, CA)<\/u><\/p>\n
                         ORtg %Pos OR\/DR% A% TO%  B\/S% FC\/40 FTR FT% 2P% 3P% 3PA%\nProjection                95   17  10\/16   4  23  6\/2   5.6   49 55% 51% 17%   7%<\/pre>\n
\nNeither should get starting minutes, but this is an excellent pair of backups. Allen\u2019s numbers look about right; Verhoeven\u2019s a better rebounder than his projections and may be a Hunter Mickelson-like secretly elite shotblocker. I saw him swat eight shots in a half in Vegas last summer.<\/p>\n
UCLA<\/b>
\nShabazz Muhammad, #2, 6\u20196 SF, Bishop Gorman (Las Vegas, NV)<\/u><\/p>\n
                         ORtg %Pos OR\/DR% A% TO%  B\/S% FC\/40 FTR FT% 2P% 3P% 3PA%\nProjection               116   24   7\/16  11  14  4\/2   2.3   48 71% 56% 28%  29%<\/pre>\n
\nKyle Anderson, #5, 6\u20197 SF, St. Anthony (Fairview, NJ)<\/u><\/p>\n
                   G\/Min ORtg %Pos OR\/DR% A% TO%  B\/S% FC\/40 FTR FT% 2P% 3P% 3PA%\nProjection               104   22   8\/15  11  17  3\/2   3.1   41 67% 51% 25%  26%\nNew Jersey Playaz 21\/591 125   26   5\/22  38  14  3\/4   3.2   44 63% 57% 41%  13%<\/pre>\n
\nTony Parker, #26, 6\u20199 C, Miller Grove (Lithonia, GA)<\/u><\/p>\n
                   G\/Min ORtg %Pos OR\/DR% A% TO%  B\/S% FC\/40 FTR FT% 2P% 3P% 3PA%\nProjection               102   20  11\/16   8  19  4\/2   4.6   43 64% 50% 25%  12%\nGeorgia Stars     20\/444 101   25  11\/20   5  21  5\/1   4.7   47 56% 54%  0%   1%<\/pre>\n
\nJordan Adams, #41, 6\u20195 SF, Oak Hill Academy (Lawrenceville, GA)<\/u><\/p>\n
                         ORtg %Pos OR\/DR% A% TO%  B\/S% FC\/40 FTR FT% 2P% 3P% 3PA%\nProjection               101   20   7\/13  11  19  2\/2   3.5   34 68% 48% 27%  28%<\/pre>\n
\nMuhammad and Anderson will both start and be All-Pac-12 caliber performers unless something goes awry. Muhammad\u2019s not quite the passer his projection claims, and a three-point percentage under 30 percent seems harsh, but it accurately portrays him as the most college-ready offensive player in the class. Anderson\u2019s is way off, and that\u2019s because he\u2019s listed as a small forward but plays the point offensively. His assist rate could be triple his projection, which would raise his usage rate to about the level to be expected. It\u2019s unlikely that Parker will knock off the Wears and Joshua Smith from the starting lineup (though he and Smith would be one of the heaviest post duos ever). His projections look pretty good, though he won\u2019t shoot threes and I fear he could have a serious early turnover problem. I expect Adams to provide instant offense off the bench, particularly as a three-point shooter. I\u2019m taking Adams as a highly-efficient reserve who has a really nice 2014 season.<\/p>\n
Utah<\/b>
\nJordan Loveridge, #96, 6\u20196 SF, West Jordan (UT)<\/u><\/p>\n
                         ORtg %Pos OR\/DR% A% TO%  B\/S% FC\/40 FTR FT% 2P% 3P% 3PA%\nProjection                95   19   6\/13   9  20  1\/2   3.7   40 65% 47% 26%  31%<\/pre>\n
\nMost programs would be able to stash Loveridge on the bench for a year and run him out, improved, as a sophomore. Utah doesn\u2019t have that luxury, but he\u2019s not ready to be a major contributor just yet.<\/p>\n
SEC<\/h4>\n
\nAlabama<\/b>
\nDevonta Pollard, #28, 6\u20197 SF, Kemper County (De Kalb, MS)<\/u><\/p>\n
                         ORtg %Pos OR\/DR% A% TO%  B\/S% FC\/40 FTR FT% 2P% 3P% 3PA%\nProjection                99   19   8\/13  11  19  4\/2   3.7   35 62% 49% 25%  25%<\/pre>\n
\nI don\u2019t see anything in that statline that looks unreasonable. The Tide return three starters, all guards, and the most likely lineup sticks Pollard at the 4 \u2013 that\u2019d mean his defensive rebounding numbers should be a bit higher.<\/p>\n
Auburn<\/b>
\nJordan Price, #61, 6\u20195 SG, Southwest DeKalb (Decatur, GA)<\/u><\/p>\n
                   G\/Min ORtg %Pos OR\/DR% A% TO%  B\/S% FC\/40 FTR FT% 2P% 3P% 3PA%\nProjection                98   19   4\/11  13  19  1\/2   3.7   28 67% 47% 31%  44%\nSouthern Kings    12\/297 112   34   8\/15  17  18  0\/2   3.2   53 71% 56% 38%  23%<\/pre>\n
\nShaquille Johnson, #98, 6\u20195 SF, Milton (Alpharetta, GA)<\/u><\/p>\n
                         ORtg %Pos OR\/DR% A% TO%  B\/S% FC\/40 FTR FT% 2P% 3P% 3PA%\nProjection                96   20   6\/13  10  20  1\/2   3.4   40 66% 45% 24%  31%<\/pre>\n
\nJohnson\u2019s likely coming off the bench at first, and I\u2019d adjust his projections down a little across the board. Price, on the other hand, I fully expect to take a major chunk of the offense off the shoulders of Varez Ward. In the EYBL, Price shot 56\/38\/71 at a 34 percent usage rate, and he finished third in scoring average at the NBPA Top 100 Camp last June. He\u2019s definitely more slasher than the projections paint him as, and he\u2019ll definitely take charge of more of the Tigers\u2019 offense. I\u2019d be surprised if he doesn\u2019t lead Auburn in scoring and make the SEC All-Freshman team.<\/p>\n
Florida<\/b>
\nBraxton Ogbueze, #50, 6\u20191 PG, United Faith Christian (Charlotte, NC)<\/u><\/p>\n
                   G\/Min ORtg %Pos OR\/DR% A% TO%  B\/S% FC\/40 FTR FT% 2P% 3P% 3PA%\nProjection                95   21   3\/8   24  25  1\/2   3.5   33 70% 45% 30%  37%\nCharlotte Royals  15\/438 106   29   2\/7   19   9  1\/2   1.6   21 74% 44% 33%  37%<\/pre>\n
\nSlide Braxton Ogbueze right into your understanding of a Florida guard. Maybe shoots a little much, maybe a little too much confidence in that jumper, but with that strategy never turns the ball over. His assist rate and turnover rate both need lowering. I\u2019d guess next year\u2019s lineup is Rosario-Boynton-Yeguete-Murphy-Young, but Ogbueze could absolutely take Yeguete\u2019s spot.<\/p>\n
Kentucky<\/b>
\nNerlens Noel, #1, 6\u201910 C, The Tilton School (Everett, MA)<\/u><\/p>\n
                   G\/Min ORtg %Pos OR\/DR% A% TO%  B\/S% FC\/40 FTR FT% 2P% 3P% 3PA%\nProjection               116   22  12\/21   7  16 10\/2   3.6   54 58% 63% 13%   3%\nBABC              19\/480 122   20  11\/25  12  12 19\/2   3.3   44 64% 54%  0%   0%<\/pre>\n
\nAlex Poythress, #13, 6\u20197 SF, Northeast Clarksville (TN)<\/u><\/p>\n
                   G\/Min ORtg %Pos OR\/DR% A% TO%  B\/S% FC\/40 FTR FT% 2P% 3P% 3PA%\nProjection               104   21  11\/16   8  18  4\/2   4.3   46 64% 50% 25%  11%\nGeorgia Stars     22\/552 113   25  11\/15  12  18  5\/1   3.8   40 69% 57% 29%  17%<\/pre>\n
\nArchie Goodwin, #15, 6\u20195 SG, Sylvan Hills (Little Rock, AR)<\/u><\/p>\n
                   G\/Min ORtg %Pos OR\/DR% A% TO%  B\/S% FC\/40 FTR FT% 2P% 3P% 3PA%\nProjection               103   21   5\/10  15  18  2\/2   3.1   32 65% 48% 32%  39%\nArkansas Wings    20\/570 102   32   5\/11  15  18  0\/2   2.5   55 66% 50% 32%  24%<\/pre>\n
\nWillie Cauley, #40, Olathe Northwest (Spearville, KS)<\/u><\/p>\n
                   G\/Min ORtg %Pos OR\/DR% A% TO%  B\/S% FC\/40 FTR FT% 2P% 3P% 3PA%\nProjection                95   17  12\/16   5  22  9\/1   5.8   45 51% 51% 13%   2%\nMoKan Elite       15\/286 121   21  10\/26  11  12  6\/2   4.5   60 69% 57% 39%  15%<\/pre>\n
\nNoel will definitely start, Poythress likely will, Goodwin could go either way, Cauley almost certainly won\u2019t. Nerlens\u2019s projection almost definitely overrates his offense (63 percent two-point shooting would be a huge surprise), and probably underrates his truly terrific defense. It\u2019s been said before, but Noel is a better shotblocker than Davis was at the same point a year ago. People are starting to get down on Goodwin, but I\u2019d be surprised if he wasn\u2019t more of a volume scorer than his projection line states here. On the other hand, people are starting to get overly excited about Poythress, and I\u2019d say this line looks about right for him. The secret weapon here might be Cauley, who\u2019s a much better shooter than his 51\/13\/51 triple-slash would indicate. He\u2019ll board with any freshman in the country, and his turnovers shouldn\u2019t be the problem they\u2019re here projected to be. Shouldn\u2019t be many better third bigs around.<\/p>\n
Texas A&M<\/b>
\nJ-Mychal Reese, #73, 6\u20192 PG, Bryan (TX)<\/u><\/p>\n
                   G\/Min ORtg %Pos OR\/DR% A% TO%  B\/S% FC\/40 FTR FT% 2P% 3P% 3PA%\nProjection                92   20   2\/8   23  25  0\/2   3.5   34 69% 43% 28%  38%\nHouston Hoops     20\/555 103   26   2\/8   21  19  0\/3   3.4   42 76% 50% 24%  18%<\/pre>\n
\nAlex Caruso, #99, 6\u20195 SG, A&M Consolidated (College Station, TX)<\/u><\/p>\n
                         ORtg %Pos OR\/DR% A% TO%  B\/S% FC\/40 FTR FT% 2P% 3P% 3PA%\nProjection                94   19   3\/11  11  20  0\/2   3.5   35 66% 46% 30%  46%<\/pre>\n
\nReese played on the same AAU team as Baylor commit (and true point guard) L.J. Rose, so remember that when looking favorably upon his turnover percentage. Reese should be the starting point guard for the Aggies, and Caruso could absolutely win a starting position himself. Caruso\u2019s not the shooter his projection claims he is, but he\u2019s a better scorer in the lane. All in all, these predictions aren\u2019t bad.<\/p>\n
Atlantic 10<\/h4>\n
\nButler<\/b>
\nKellen Dunham, #78, 6\u20195 SG, Pendleton (IN) Heights<\/u><\/p>\n
                   G\/Min ORtg %Pos OR\/DR% A% TO%  B\/S% FC\/40 FTR FT% 2P% 3P% 3PA%\nProjection                96   19   4\/11  12  19  1\/2   3.7   30 66% 47% 30%  45%\nIndy Spiece       20\/463 124   18   3\/8    9  16  0\/1   1.7   39 90% 51% 44%  48%<\/pre>\n
\nDunham is a fantastic shooter, and that\u2019s information this system has trouble figuring out. He\u2019ll shoot 80 percent from the line and 35 percent from deep, easy. I bet more than half his shots come from three-point range, as well. He shouldn\u2019t turn the ball over or rack up assists as commonly as expected. And his foul rate will be lower. There shouldn\u2019t be many (any?) teams in the country with a pair of shooters like Dunham and Rotnei Clarke. I don\u2019t know whether Dunham will start for the Bulldogs or not, but I bet he plays about half the team\u2019s minutes.<\/p>\n
VCU<\/b>
\nJordan Burgess, #95, 6\u20195 SF, Benedictine (Midlothian, VA)<\/u><\/p>\n
                         ORtg %Pos OR\/DR% A% TO%  B\/S% FC\/40 FTR FT% 2P% 3P% 3PA%\nProjection                96   19   7\/13   9  20  1\/2   3.5   39 65% 46% 25%  31%<\/pre>\n
\nBurgess\u2019s projection line looks about right to me for a BCS schedule. Improve everything by 5% for the A-10 and double the steal rate for the VCU defense, and that\u2019s a pretty good estimate. He\u2019ll get rotation minutes.<\/p>\n
Conference-USA<\/h4>\n
\nHouston<\/b>
\nDanuel House, #19, 6\u20196 SF, Hightower (Sugar Land, TX)<\/u><\/p>\n
                         ORtg %Pos OR\/DR% A% TO%  B\/S% FC\/40 FTR FT% 2P% 3P% 3PA%\nProjection               101   20   8\/13  12  19  3\/2   3.4   37 63% 49% 25%  25% <\/pre>\n
\nChicken Knowles, #51, 6\u20199 PF, Homeschool (Houston, TX)<\/u><\/p>\n
                         ORtg %Pos OR\/DR% A% TO%  B\/S% FC\/40 FTR FT% 2P% 3P% 3PA%\nProjection               100   18  10\/16   6  19  5\/2   5.0   40 62% 50% 25%  13%<\/pre>\n
\nBetween House, Knowles, and TaShawn Thomas, Houston has three legitimate All-C-USA prospects. Chicken will step outside and hit a few more threes than the projection says, and that means his offensive rebounding percentage is likely a bit high, as well. House isn\u2019t Top 20 good just yet, but the mid-major ranks can be kind to a freshman like that. Knowles and House both should post freshman seasons around 105 offensive ratings and 23 percent usage rates.<\/p>\n
Memphis<\/b>
\nShaq Goodwin, #31, 6\u20198 PF, Southwest DeKalb (Decatur, GA)<\/u><\/p>\n
                   G\/Min ORtg %Pos OR\/DR% A% TO%  B\/S% FC\/40 FTR FT% 2P% 3P% 3PA%\nProjection               102   19  11\/16   7  19  4\/2   4.6   42 64% 49% 25%  12%\nYOMCA             22\/480 114   25   8\/16  12  19  2\/1   4.6   58 68% 65% 10%   6%<\/pre>\n
\nShaq\u2019s probably a bit better as a scorer (though he never shoots threes) and a bit worse as a rebounder than here listed. He had a good EYBL, but he just had a truly phenomenal USA U18 \u2013 he shot 80 percent from the floor and finished third on the team in scoring behind 2013 superstar Julius Randle and Tennessee sophomore Jarnell Stokes.<\/p>\n
Missouri Valley<\/h4>\n
\nWichita State<\/b>
\nFred Van Vleet, #82, 5\u201911 PG, Auburn (Rockford, IL)<\/u><\/p>\n
                         ORtg %Pos OR\/DR% A% TO%  B\/S% FC\/40 FTR FT% 2P% 3P% 3PA%\nProjection                94   22   2\/8   23  23  0\/3   3.2   41 72% 41% 26%  41%<\/pre>\n
\nVan Vleet will get a season working behind transfer Malcolm Armstead, and he\u2019ll be the best backup point in the Missouri Valley. He won\u2019t take as many threes as the projection indicates, and he\u2019ll score better in the lane in the Valley.<\/p>\n
Mountain West<\/h4>\n
\nFresno State<\/b>
\nRobert Upshaw, #55, 6\u201911 C, San Joaquin Memorial (Fresno, CA)<\/u><\/p>\n
                         ORtg %Pos OR\/DR% A% TO%  B\/S% FC\/40 FTR FT% 2P% 3P% 3PA%\nProjection                94   16  12\/16   5  22  9\/1   5.9   44 50% 51% 14%   3%<\/pre>\n
\nUpshaw is still considerably more prospect than player. I\u2019d take his conference-unadjusted projection and take it at Fresno. He\u2019ll rebound better than that, though. Upshaw\u2019s not ready to be a major part of an offense yet, but pay serious, serious attention if he starts putting up points.<\/p>\n
San Diego State<\/b>
\nWinston Shepard, #53, 6\u20198 SF, Findlay Prep (Fresno, TX)<\/u><\/p>\n
                         ORtg %Pos OR\/DR% A% TO%  B\/S% FC\/40 FTR FT% 2P% 3P% 3PA%\nProjection               101   18  10\/16   7  19  4\/2   4.8   40 64% 49% 26%  14%<\/pre>\n
\nThe Aztecs will be awfully good next season, but I wouldn\u2019t be surprised to see Shepard crack the lineup anyway. That said, I\u2019m not sure how successful he\u2019ll be \u2013 he\u2019s largely just a huge athlete at this point, and that\u2019s not the type of player usually encountered at the mid-major level. I\u2019ll sign off on the projections for now, but there\u2019s not a ton of precedent.<\/p>\n
UNLV<\/b>
\nAnthony Bennett, #7, 6\u20198 PF, Findlay Prep (Brampton, ONT)<\/u><\/p>\n
                   G\/Min ORtg %Pos OR\/DR% A% TO%  B\/S% FC\/40 FTR FT% 2P% 3P% 3PA%\nProjection               105   22  11\/17   8  18  4\/2   4.0   48 65% 51% 25%  11%\nCIA Bounce        19\/429 124   24   8\/15  10  15  2\/3   3.4   34 83% 60% 33%  33%<\/pre>\n
\nKatin Reinhardt, #47, 6\u20195 SG, Mater Dei (San Juan Capistrano, CA)<\/u><\/p>\n
                   G\/Min ORtg %Pos OR\/DR% A% TO%  B\/S% FC\/40 FTR FT% 2P% 3P% 3PA%\nProjection               100   20   4\/10  14  18  1\/2   3.5   28 68% 47% 32%  43%\nCal. Supreme      10\/175 122   27   1\/9   19  10  1\/2   1.1   15 86% 57% 40%  54%<\/pre>\n
\nSavon Goodman, #100, 6\u20196 SF, Constitution (Philadelphia, PA)<\/u><\/p>\n
                   G\/Min ORtg %Pos OR\/DR% A% TO%  B\/S% FC\/40 FTR FT% 2P% 3P% 3PA%\nProjection                94   18   7\/13   9  21  2\/2   3.7   40 60% 47% 24%  29%\nNew Jersey Playaz 19\/424 124   22  10\/13   4  16  1\/2   3.8   53 63% 71%  0%   1%<\/pre>\n
\nBennett\u2019s a better shooter than he\u2019s here given credit for, but I\u2019d be surprised if he rebounded this well. In the MWC, an offensive rating of 110 is certainly a reasonable goal. He shouldn\u2019t be beaten out for conference Freshman of the Year. Goodman should be considerably more efficient \u2013 I wouldn\u2019t be surprised to see him shoot 60 percent on twos, though he won\u2019t be attempting many threes at all. Reinhardt will be a highly effective scorer off the bench, especially shooting from long range. I doubt he gets to the free throw line at that rate, though he\u2019ll certainly make more than 68 percent once he gets there. Reinhardt also rarely turns the ball over.<\/p>\n
America East<\/h4>\n
\nBoston University<\/b>
\nMaurice Watson, #91, 5\u20199 PG, Boys Latin (Philadelphia, PA)<\/u><\/p>\n
                         ORtg %Pos OR\/DR% A% TO%  B\/S% FC\/40 FTR FT% 2P% 3P% 3PA%\nProjection                93   23   2\/8   24  23  0\/3   2.8   44 73% 37% 24%  42%<\/pre>\n
\nThis is a very unusual situation for BU. As far as I know, Watson is the first Top 100-type recruit they\u2019ve ever signed, but they\u2019re returning All-AEC point guard D.J. Irving. I assume you\u2019ve got to play both of them, but people can do unexpected things with point guards sometimes. Watson won\u2019t turn the ball over on 23 percent of his possessions (and certainly not in the AEC), and he won\u2019t shoot 37\/24 on his twos and threes, either. If Watson doesn\u2019t click with D-I right away, it\u2019ll be because he\u2019s deferring too much, not because he\u2019s inefficient. I\u2019d guess he\u2019s more like an offensive rating of 108 at an 18 percent usage rate.<\/p>\n
Uncommitted<\/h4>\n
\nElijah Macon, #45, 6\u20198 PF, Huntington Prep (Columbus, OH)<\/u><\/p>\n
                   G\/Min ORtg %Pos OR\/DR% A% TO%  B\/S% FC\/40 FTR FT% 2P% 3P% 3PA%\nProjection               100   18  12\/16   8  20  6\/1   4.9   40 58% 49% 24%  11%\nAll Ohio Red      15\/299 104   24   8\/24   8  15  3\/1   5.5   35 64% 47% 75%   3%<\/pre>\n
\nTorian Graham, #90, 6\u20194 SG, Christian Faith Center (Durham, NC)<\/u><\/p>\n
                         ORtg %Pos OR\/DR% A% TO%  B\/S% FC\/40 FTR FT% 2P% 3P% 3PA%\nProjection                94   18   4\/10  13  20  2\/2   3.5   32 62% 45% 28%  43%<\/pre>\n
\nMacon recently elected to attend prep school in the fall, though is still committed to West Virginia. Graham is very likely to prep, as well.<\/p>\n","protected":false},"excerpt":{"rendered":"
[Drew is in the midst of a three-part series to critique his statistical projections of the ESPNU Top 100 incoming freshmen. Last Thursday, he handled prospects headed to the ACC or Big East. Monday, he tackled the Big Ten and Big 12. Today, he concludes with the Pac-12, SEC, and everybody else.] Pac-12 Arizona Kaleb […]<\/p>\n","protected":false},"author":2,"featured_media":0,"comment_status":"closed","ping_status":"closed","sticky":false,"template":"","format":"standard","meta":[],"categories":[1],"tags":[],"_links":{"self":[{"href":"https:\/\/kenpom.com\/blog\/wp-json\/wp\/v2\/posts\/405"}],"collection":[{"href":"https:\/\/kenpom.com\/blog\/wp-json\/wp\/v2\/posts"}],"about":[{"href":"https:\/\/kenpom.com\/blog\/wp-json\/wp\/v2\/types\/post"}],"author":[{"embeddable":true,"href":"https:\/\/kenpom.com\/blog\/wp-json\/wp\/v2\/users\/2"}],"replies":[{"embeddable":true,"href":"https:\/\/kenpom.com\/blog\/wp-json\/wp\/v2\/comments?post=405"}],"version-history":[{"count":1,"href":"https:\/\/kenpom.com\/blog\/wp-json\/wp\/v2\/posts\/405\/revisions"}],"predecessor-version":[{"id":1043,"href":"https:\/\/kenpom.com\/blog\/wp-json\/wp\/v2\/posts\/405\/revisions\/1043"}],"wp:attachment":[{"href":"https:\/\/kenpom.com\/blog\/wp-json\/wp\/v2\/media?parent=405"}],"wp:term":[{"taxonomy":"category","embeddable":true,"href":"https:\/\/kenpom.com\/blog\/wp-json\/wp\/v2\/categories?post=405"},{"taxonomy":"post_tag","embeddable":true,"href":"https:\/\/kenpom.com\/blog\/wp-json\/wp\/v2\/tags?post=405"}],"curies":[{"name":"wp","href":"https:\/\/api.w.org\/{rel}","templated":true}]}}