something else for some of them<\/a>, as you\u2019ll remember), redshirts, teammate activity, and coach activity. So quite a bit. But we have something to start with, and that\u2019s something we didn\u2019t have not too long ago.<\/p>\nI\u2019ll get into some of the more interesting things I found in creating these projections as time goes on. For now, I\u2019m giving you the projections for (1) every BCS All-Conference returnee, (2) every mid-major first-team All-Conference returnee, (3) every low-major conference Player of the Year, (4) projected top draft picks by Draft Express, and (5) ten guys who have awesome stats but fit none of those categories.<\/p>\n
Two of the guys projected for the most regression are Doug McDermott and Isaiah Canaan, and it’s quickly clear what those three have in common: They all had fantastic, likely unsustainable shooting seasons in 2012. Some of their other numbers are certainly adjusted, but McDermott’s projected to drop from 49 percent to 38 percent and Canaan from 46 percent to 40 percent – a more impactful drop, considering the number of threes Canaan attempts. Jordan Taylor ran into this buzzsaw last year. Neither of those two should have bad seasons, by any means; McDermott probably still has the best projections of anyone. But don’t expect either of them to have another gear they’ve been holding back.<\/p>\n
The biggest improvements are expected of Le’Bryan Nash, Joshua Smith, Adonis Thomas, and James Michael McAdoo, and the similarities between those four are equally clear: Projected high draft picks coming off unimpressive seasons tend to improve quickly. Last season, for example, we saw big jumps from Thomas Robinson, Patric Young, and C.J. Leslie.<\/p>\n
ORtg %Pos OR\/DR% A% TO% B\/S% FC\/40 FTR FT% 2P% 3P% 3PA%\nTrevor Releford, Alabama 108 23 3\/9 22 18 0\/4 2.9 40 78% 50% 33% 30%\nSolomon Hill, Arizona 111 25 8\/19 18 19 2\/2 2.8 45 73% 52% 35% 32%\nB.J. Young, Arkansas 108 29 4\/10 19 17 1\/3 2.6 31 78% 50% 36% 37%\nPierre Jackson, Baylor 111 28 3\/8 37 22 0\/4 2.4 34 79% 47% 37% 47%\nMike Muscala, Bucknell 113 27 11\/24 12 15 6\/1 3.3 61 82% 56% 32% 10%\nJavon McCrea, Buffalo 110 30 12\/18 15 18 5\/2 3.9 46 65% 58% 28% 2%\nBrandon Davies, BYU 108 28 9\/21 15 17 5\/3 4.2 57 68% 56% 29% 3%\nAllen Crabbe, California 112 23 4\/16 12 13 2\/1 1.7 21 83% 47% 40% 51%\nSean Kilpatrick, Cincy 112 21 4\/11 15 14 1\/2 1.9 18 76% 46% 38% 54%\nAndre Roberson, Colorado 108 23 11\/28 10 16 6\/3 3.0 49 65% 54% 31% 19%\n\n ORtg %Pos OR\/DR% A% TO% B\/S% FC\/40 FTR FT% 2P% 3P% 3PA%\nWes Eikmeier, Colorado St. 104 24 1\/8 14 16 0\/2 2.3 29 84% 44% 37% 42%\nDoug McDermott, Creighton 119 31 10\/19 8 13 1\/1 1.6 32 80% 57% 38% 25%\nDe\u2019Mon Brooks, Davidson 114 29 11\/18 10 16 3\/3 4.6 38 74% 54% 33% 17%\nJake Cohen, Davidson 114 26 9\/19 12 16 6\/2 4.5 52 81% 55% 35% 28%\nChris Udofia, Denver 111 29 9\/18 19 16 7\/2 3.8 42 72% 58% 34% 27%\nRay McCallum, Detroit 110 27 4\/12 27 17 1\/3 2.3 41 76% 51% 33% 31%\nFrantz Massenat, Drexel 113 21 3\/9 29 17 1\/2 2.8 47 81% 47% 37% 40%\nSeth Curry, Duke 111 22 3\/8 18 17 1\/3 2.7 33 83% 46% 38% 51%\nMason Plumlee, Duke 110 23 12\/23 12 20 5\/2 3.8 62 55% 57% 27% 1%\nColt Ryan, Evansville 108 27 3\/14 19 16 1\/3 3.1 46 84% 43% 39% 43%\n\n ORtg %Pos OR\/DR% A% TO% B\/S% FC\/40 FTR FT% 2P% 3P% 3PA%\nKenny Boynton, Florida 116 23 3\/8 17 13 0\/2 1.3 25 78% 46% 40% 60%\nPatric Young, Florida 114 22 12\/18 10 17 3\/1 3.6 40 64% 58% 28% 0%\nMichael Snaer, Florida St. 107 25 3\/12 14 16 1\/2 2.2 28 81% 45% 38% 44%\nOtto Porter, Georgetown 113 23 9\/18 13 16 3\/2 2.3 35 71% 56% 32% 21%\nElias Harris, Gonzaga 110 24 10\/22 10 16 3\/2 2.6 35 71% 53% 34% 24%\nKevin Pangos, Gonzaga 115 22 2\/9 21 16 0\/2 2.0 30 83% 47% 39% 62%\nAlec Brown, Green Bay 104 23 11\/21 6 17 9\/2 3.3 40 76% 52% 29% 6%\nVander Joaquim, Hawaii 108 25 12\/23 8 18 6\/1 3.8 57 64% 58% 28% 2%\nBrandon Paul, Illinois 100 27 4\/14 20 18 3\/3 3.1 42 74% 47% 35% 43%\nJackie Carmichael, IL St. 108 26 11\/26 9 17 5\/1 3.7 62 70% 55% 29% 5%\n\n ORtg %Pos OR\/DR% A% TO% B\/S% FC\/40 FTR FT% 2P% 3P% 3PA%\nCody Zeller, Indiana 119 26 12\/19 10 16 4\/3 3.8 62 72% 60% 30% 4%\nJeff Withey, Kansas 113 21 10\/22 7 16 13\/1 3.2 60 73% 55% 29% 0%\nRodney McGruder, K-State 113 22 7\/12 11 15 1\/2 2.1 31 81% 50% 36% 35%\nC.J. McCollum, Lehigh 113 32 4\/17 24 15 2\/4 2.6 42 82% 49% 37% 33%\nJulian Boyd, Long Island 115 28 10\/23 6 15 2\/1 3.9 54 72% 55% 33% 18%\nAnthony Ireland, LMU 109 26 2\/9 31 20 0\/3 2.2 33 78% 45% 34% 37%\nChaz Williams, UMass 112 24 2\/9 35 19 0\/4 3.2 46 83% 45% 37% 36%\nAdonis Thomas, Memphis 105 21 5\/12 8 16 3\/2 2.5 23 71% 52% 33% 27%\nKenny Kadji, Miami 105 22 8\/17 7 16 6\/1 3.6 39 69% 51% 33% 22%\nTrey Burke, Michigan 107 27 3\/10 28 17 1\/2 1.8 29 75% 49% 35% 38%\n\n ORtg %Pos OR\/DR% A% TO% B\/S% FC\/40 FTR FT% 2P% 3P% 3PA%\nTim Hardaway, Michigan 106 26 4\/12 15 15 1\/1 2.4 33 71% 50% 35% 43%\nKeith Appling, Mich. State 108 24 3\/8 27 19 1\/3 2.7 48 76% 51% 34% 32%\nMichael Dixon, Missouri 114 28 1\/9 24 16 0\/2 2.1 38 83% 51% 38% 40%\nPhil Pressey, Missouri 111 25 1\/10 37 22 0\/4 2.1 40 77% 48% 37% 36%\nIsaiah Canaan, Murray St. 112 27 2\/9 22 16 0\/2 1.9 39 83% 47% 40% 59%\nLorenzo Brown, NC State 108 24 3\/12 36 23 2\/3 1.9 39 75% 49% 33% 23%\nC.J. Leslie, NC State 105 27 10\/19 10 18 5\/2 3.2 50 65% 54% 29% 6%\nDeonte Burton, Nevada 109 24 1\/8 26 17 1\/2 2.8 48 80% 46% 37% 46%\nJames Michael McAdoo, UNC 104 23 9\/16 7 15 3\/2 3.0 46 66% 48% 27% 2%\nTony Mitchell, North Texas 109 27 10\/25 11 18 9\/2 4.0 49 72% 55% 31% 24%\n\n ORtg %Pos OR\/DR% A% TO% B\/S% FC\/40 FTR FT% 2P% 3P% 3PA%\nDrew Crawford, N\u2019western 110 24 5\/13 15 15 2\/2 2.3 28 76% 49% 37% 38%\nJack Cooley, Notre Dame 118 21 14\/22 7 15 5\/2 3.4 51 66% 60% 28% 0%\nAaron Craft, Ohio State 111 20 3\/11 30 23 1\/5 3.0 48 73% 51% 34% 28%\nDeshaun Thomas, Ohio State 119 26 9\/12 9 12 1\/1 2.1 25 76% 54% 36% 30%\nLe\u2019Bryan Nash, OK State 100 27 5\/14 12 18 2\/2 3.6 41 74% 47% 31% 21%\nE.J. Singler, Oregon 114 24 6\/16 15 17 2\/1 2.9 38 85% 51% 38% 40%\nTim Frazier, Penn State 105 29 5\/13 40 17 4\/3 3.1 43 81% 45% 32% 20%\nIan Hummer, Princeton 106 30 9\/19 21 17 4\/3 2.8 41 71% 53% 32% 19%\nVincent Council, Prov. 105 26 3\/9 39 19 1\/2 2.1 30 74% 45% 31% 23%\nJ. Franklin, San Diego St. 106 30 7\/20 12 17 3\/2 3.0 47 77% 49% 36% 41%\n\n ORtg %Pos OR\/DR% A% TO% B\/S% FC\/40 FTR FT% 2P% 3P% 3PA%\nNate Wolters, S. Dak. St. 116 32 4\/14 31 15 1\/3 2.1 42 79% 51% 35% 27%\nM. Dellavedova, St. Mary\u2019s 116 25 2\/10 33 18 1\/2 1.8 40 82% 51% 38% 44%\nKhalif Wyatt, Temple 111 28 3\/11 22 16 1\/3 2.6 46 81% 49% 38% 44%\nJeronne Maymon, Tennessee 108 24 12\/20 11 19 2\/2 3.9 61 65% 53% 28% 4%\nMyck Kabongo, Texas 102 24 2\/9 34 26 0\/3 2.7 58 71% 44% 33% 34%\nRicky Tarrant, Tulane 107 25 2\/10 23 16 0\/3 2.9 43 77% 46% 35% 48%\nJoshua Smith, UCLA 107 29 14\/20 8 19 4\/2 6.3 67 62% 56% 27% 2%\nKeith Rendleman, UNCW 105 25 11\/20 11 17 3\/2 3.5 48 66% 53% 28% 2%\nMike Moser, UNLV 109 27 10\/26 16 18 4\/4 2.7 28 76% 53% 35% 32%\nTorrey Craig, USC Upstate 107 27 9\/20 11 16 4\/3 3.6 27 71% 50% 37% 53%\n\n ORtg %Pos OR\/DR% A% TO% B\/S% FC\/40 FTR FT% 2P% 3P% 3PA%\nPreston Medlin, Utah State 115 25 2\/12 19 15 1\/1 1.7 32 82% 49% 40% 55%\nRyan Broekhoff, Valparaiso 117 23 7\/22 14 15 2\/2 2.4 39 78% 56% 39% 48%\nKevin Van Wijk, Valparaiso 106 29 11\/18 8 19 3\/2 4.6 75 63% 59% 28% 0%\nErick Green, Virginia Tech 107 26 2\/10 20 15 1\/2 1.9 30 84% 44% 35% 16%\nC.J. Harris, Wake Forest 106 24 2\/9 17 16 0\/2 2.3 48 82% 47% 37% 39%\nBrock Motum, Wash. State 108 30 8\/17 11 17 2\/1 2.8 46 74% 55% 33% 20%\nLeonard Washington, Wyo. 104 30 9\/24 10 15 5\/3 3.7 47 70% 55% 32% 22%\nKendrick Perry, Youngstown 110 26 3\/9 27 15 1\/4 1.8 38 74% 49% 35% 43%\n<\/pre>\n","protected":false},"excerpt":{"rendered":"I\u2019ve spent a good chunk of the last couple weeks putting together a player projection system, my primary goal at this point simply having one exist so that, in the future, it can be improved upon. It\u2019s built on a bunch of regressions that take into account the player\u2019s stats from last season, his basic […]<\/p>\n","protected":false},"author":2,"featured_media":0,"comment_status":"closed","ping_status":"closed","sticky":false,"template":"","format":"standard","meta":[],"categories":[1],"tags":[],"_links":{"self":[{"href":"https:\/\/kenpom.com\/blog\/wp-json\/wp\/v2\/posts\/401"}],"collection":[{"href":"https:\/\/kenpom.com\/blog\/wp-json\/wp\/v2\/posts"}],"about":[{"href":"https:\/\/kenpom.com\/blog\/wp-json\/wp\/v2\/types\/post"}],"author":[{"embeddable":true,"href":"https:\/\/kenpom.com\/blog\/wp-json\/wp\/v2\/users\/2"}],"replies":[{"embeddable":true,"href":"https:\/\/kenpom.com\/blog\/wp-json\/wp\/v2\/comments?post=401"}],"version-history":[{"count":1,"href":"https:\/\/kenpom.com\/blog\/wp-json\/wp\/v2\/posts\/401\/revisions"}],"predecessor-version":[{"id":1046,"href":"https:\/\/kenpom.com\/blog\/wp-json\/wp\/v2\/posts\/401\/revisions\/1046"}],"wp:attachment":[{"href":"https:\/\/kenpom.com\/blog\/wp-json\/wp\/v2\/media?parent=401"}],"wp:term":[{"taxonomy":"category","embeddable":true,"href":"https:\/\/kenpom.com\/blog\/wp-json\/wp\/v2\/categories?post=401"},{"taxonomy":"post_tag","embeddable":true,"href":"https:\/\/kenpom.com\/blog\/wp-json\/wp\/v2\/tags?post=401"}],"curies":[{"name":"wp","href":"https:\/\/api.w.org\/{rel}","templated":true}]}}