With the calendar turning over, it’s time to forecast the regular season champs for each of the 32 conferences. As a reminder, here are the assumptions…<\/p>\n
Using the offensive and defensive ratings through 12\/31, 10,000 simulations of the rest of the season were run. I dumbed down the pythagorean exponent a bit for this exercise since there’s slightly more uncertainty in predicting things in the more distant future than with tomorrow’s games.<\/p>\n
Listed next to each team is the number of times it won the conference in the 10,000 simulations. Divide by 100 to get the chance in percent of a team winning the regular season race. If a team is not listed, they didn’t win or tie a single simulation. Better luck next season.<\/p>\n
I’m not exactly<\/em> predicting conference champs here, but the team that would get the one-seed in their conference tournament. Thus, in the case where multiple teams tie with conference’s best record, fractional credit is given to the tied teams. This fraction is rounded in the final total. I don’t spend any time applying conference tiebreakers. <\/p>\n Teams listed with a * were involved in a single multi-team tie. <\/p>\n In conferences with divisions (which I hate), I am forecasting the team that has the best conference record. <\/p>\n What follows is the breakdown for each conference in ascending order of suspense. Expert commentary injected where appropriate.<\/p>\n Many conferences have started conference play. Middle Tennessee has played 3 of its 20 conference games. Western Kentucky is 4-0, but the Blue Raiders are so far ahead of them in the ratings, they are the closest to being a sure thing when it comes to winning a conference title. North Texas, at 0-3 already, has been a big disappointment. Thought to be competitive with Middle Tennessee before the season started, they’re now a tremendous longshot.<\/p>\n This exercise gives you some insight into schedule difficulty in conferences that no longer play double round-robins (which is almost all of them). I don’t doubt I have UVa overrated, but they only have to play Duke, N.C. State, and Miami once each while UNC’s single-game opponents are the four-lowest rated teams in the conference: Clemson, Va. Tech, Boston College, and Wake Forest. That kind of stuff matters.<\/p>\n Montana has played most of the season thus far without its stud point guard Will Cherry, so their chances might be underestimated. <\/p>\n The OVC is the closest thing in the nation to a two-team race. However, Belmont and Murray State are in different divisions so it’s not really a race at all. (I hate divisions in part because it deprives us of such drama.)<\/p>\n In addition to Ole Miss being a bit better than most thought, they only get Florida and Kentucky once each so they may well be a factor in the SEC race.<\/p>\n Likewise, Oregon only plays UCLA and Arizona once each and therefore has a slightly better shot at a Pac-12 title than you might think.<\/p>\n St. Louis was the computers’ preseason favorite while Saint Joe’s was the media pick. VCU is the best team in the conference now, and they get some help because SLU and Butler have to play each other twice in what is otherwise a single round-robin schedule.<\/p>\nSun Belt\nMiddle Tennessee 9487\nWestern Kentucky 411\nArkansas St. 50\nSouth Alabama 36\nLouisiana Lafayette 7\nNorth Texas 6\nFla. International 2\nArk.-Little Rock *\n\n<\/pre>\n
\nACC\nDuke 8797\nVirginia 476\nNorth Carolina St. 235\nMiami FL 226\nNorth Carolina 143\nMaryland 59\nGeorgia Tech 43\nFlorida St. 14\nClemson 8\n\n<\/pre>\n
Big 12\nKansas 8079\nOklahoma St. 1187\nBaylor 308\nIowa St. 177\nKansas St. 119\nOklahoma 67\nTexas 63\nWest Virginia 1\n\nWCC\nGonzaga 8058\nSt. Mary's 1102\nBrigham Young 577\nSanta Clara 243\nSan Francisco 13\nLoyola Marymount 4\nSan Diego 2\n\nSummit League\nNorth Dakota St. 7737\nWestern Illinois 1429\nSouth Dakota St. 558\nOakland 270\nSouth Dakota 4\nIPFW 2\nIUPUI *\n\nBig Sky\nWeber St. 7481\nMontana 2380\nNorthern Colorado 51\nSacramento St. 48\nPortland St. 31\nEastern Washington 4\nMontana St. 1\nNorthern Arizona 1 \nNorth Dakota *\nSouthern Utah *\n\n<\/pre>\n
Ohio Valley\nBelmont 7286\nMurray St. 2586\nJacksonville St. 48\nEastern Kentucky 40\nSE Missouri St. 31\nTennessee St. 6\nMorehead St. 3\nSIU Edwardsville 1\nTennessee Tech *\n\n<\/pre>\n
SEC\nFlorida 7223\nKentucky 1955\nMississippi 410\nMissouri 353\nTennessee 26\nAlabama 23\nArkansas 7\nLouisiana St. 1\nTexas A&M 1\nGeorgia *\n\n<\/pre>\n
Pac-12\nArizona 7045\nOregon 921\nUCLA 765\nColorado 699\nStanford 320\nCalifornia 199\nWashington St. 38\nWashington 7\nOregon St. 5\nArizona St. 2\nUSC 1\n\n<\/pre>\n
\nPatriot League\nBucknell 6677\nLehigh 3149\nHoly Cross 94\nArmy 73\nNavy 4\nAmerican 3\nColgate *\n\nAtlantic 10\nVCU 6364\nSt. Louis 1263\nButler 775\nSaint Joseph's 565\nLa Salle 381\nTemple 267\nDayton 171\nXavier 94\nRichmond 43\nSt. Bonaventure 33\nCharlotte 15\nMassachusetts 15\nGeorge Washington 13\n\n<\/pre>\n
Southland\nStephen F. Austin 6268\nOral Roberts 2593\nNorthwestern St. 952\nMcNeese St. 103\nSam Houston St. 60\nCentral Arkansas 21\nNicholls St. 2\n\nMissouri Valley\nCreighton 6179\nWichita St. 3247\nIllinois St. 453\nIndiana St. 55\nNorthern Iowa 29\nBradley 28\nEvansville 7\nDrake 2\n\nSoCon\nDavidson 6038\nCharleston 2650\nElon 687\nWofford 414\nWestern Carolina 189\nNC Greensboro 18\nChattanooga 2\nAppalachian St. 1\nSamford 1\n\nMAC\nAkron 5988\nOhio 3148\nKent St. 296\nWestern Michigan 217\nToledo 180\nBuffalo 115\nBowling Green 28\nCentral Michigan 17\nBall St. 5\nMiami OH 4\nEastern Michigan 2\n\n<\/pre>\n