{"id":316,"date":"2013-03-05T13:39:07","date_gmt":"2013-03-05T19:39:07","guid":{"rendered":"http:\/\/67.227.157.91\/~kenpom\/wp_blog\/mvc-log5-3\/"},"modified":"2013-03-05T13:39:07","modified_gmt":"2013-03-05T19:39:07","slug":"mvc-log5-3","status":"publish","type":"post","link":"https:\/\/kenpom.com\/blog\/mvc-log5-3\/","title":{"rendered":"MVC log5"},"content":{"rendered":"<p><strong>March 7-10. All games at St. Louis, Mo.<\/strong><\/p>\n<p><strong>All-kenpom:<\/strong> Doug McDermott, Creighton (kPOY); Colt Ryan, Evansville; Jackie Carmichael, Illinois State; Cleanthony Early, Wichita State; Tyler Brown; Illinois State.<\/p>\n<p>Creighton hasn\u2019t overpowered the rest of the conference, so it\u2019s not surprising they aren\u2019t the odds-on favorite to emerge from Arch Madness victorious despite their regular-season title. There\u2019s substantial bid-thieving potential here since only the Bluejays and Wichita State are in line for at-large bids if needed. Teams from the rest of the field have a collective 27 percent chance of winning the tournament. Despite losing four of its last five, Illinois State is lurking as the most likely candidate. They\u2019ve alternated extended periods of great results and poor results, so it wouldn\u2019t be too stunning if they find their mojo at the Scottrade Center. A completely irrelevant subplot here is whether Creighton can finish off the unprecedented (in the last decade) national title in both two-point and three-point accuracy. They have very slim leads in both categories, so they\u2019ll need to shoot it well in St. Louis to have a chance.<\/p>\n<p>Numbers listed are the probabilities of a team advancing to each round. Unfamiliar with log5? <a href=\"http:\/\/www.chancesis.com\/2010\/10\/03\/the-origins-of-log5\/\">Here\u2019s more than you want to know<\/a>.<\/p>\n<pre>                Qtrs Semis Final Champ\n 1 Creighton     100  87.6  69.2  44.8\n 2 Wichita St.   100  88.5  55.6  28.3\n 6 Illinois St.  100  53.2  23.2   9.4\n 3 Northern Iowa 100  46.8  19.1   7.2\n 4 Evansville    100  54.6  15.2   5.4\n 5 Indiana St.   100  45.4  11.3   3.5\n 9 Drake        59.8   8.4   3.2   0.8\n10 S. Illinois  61.7   8.1   1.7   0.3\n 8 Bradley      40.2   4.0   1.2   0.2\n 7 Missouri St. 38.3   3.3   0.5   0.05\n<\/pre>\n<p>&nbsp;<\/p>\n","protected":false},"excerpt":{"rendered":"<p>March 7-10. All games at St. Louis, Mo. All-kenpom: Doug McDermott, Creighton (kPOY); Colt Ryan, Evansville; Jackie Carmichael, Illinois State; Cleanthony Early, Wichita State; Tyler Brown; Illinois State. Creighton hasn\u2019t overpowered the rest of the conference, so it\u2019s not surprising they aren\u2019t the odds-on favorite to emerge from Arch Madness victorious despite their regular-season title. [&hellip;]<\/p>\n","protected":false},"author":1,"featured_media":0,"comment_status":"closed","ping_status":"closed","sticky":false,"template":"","format":"standard","meta":[],"categories":[1],"tags":[],"_links":{"self":[{"href":"https:\/\/kenpom.com\/blog\/wp-json\/wp\/v2\/posts\/316"}],"collection":[{"href":"https:\/\/kenpom.com\/blog\/wp-json\/wp\/v2\/posts"}],"about":[{"href":"https:\/\/kenpom.com\/blog\/wp-json\/wp\/v2\/types\/post"}],"author":[{"embeddable":true,"href":"https:\/\/kenpom.com\/blog\/wp-json\/wp\/v2\/users\/1"}],"replies":[{"embeddable":true,"href":"https:\/\/kenpom.com\/blog\/wp-json\/wp\/v2\/comments?post=316"}],"version-history":[{"count":0,"href":"https:\/\/kenpom.com\/blog\/wp-json\/wp\/v2\/posts\/316\/revisions"}],"wp:attachment":[{"href":"https:\/\/kenpom.com\/blog\/wp-json\/wp\/v2\/media?parent=316"}],"wp:term":[{"taxonomy":"category","embeddable":true,"href":"https:\/\/kenpom.com\/blog\/wp-json\/wp\/v2\/categories?post=316"},{"taxonomy":"post_tag","embeddable":true,"href":"https:\/\/kenpom.com\/blog\/wp-json\/wp\/v2\/tags?post=316"}],"curies":[{"name":"wp","href":"https:\/\/api.w.org\/{rel}","templated":true}]}}