{"id":307,"date":"2013-03-11T11:30:02","date_gmt":"2013-03-11T17:30:02","guid":{"rendered":"http:\/\/67.227.157.91\/~kenpom\/wp_blog\/mac-log5-3\/"},"modified":"2013-03-11T11:30:02","modified_gmt":"2013-03-11T17:30:02","slug":"mac-log5-3","status":"publish","type":"post","link":"https:\/\/kenpom.com\/blog\/mac-log5-3\/","title":{"rendered":"MAC log5"},"content":{"rendered":"<p><strong>March 11, 13-16. First round at higher seed. Remaining games at Cleveland, Ohio.<\/strong><\/p>\n<p><strong>All-kenpom:<\/strong> D.J. Cooper, Ohio (kPOY); Chris Evans, Kent State; Zeke Marshall, Akron; Javon McCrea, Buffalo; Rian Pearson, Toledo.<\/p>\n<p>Akron\u2019s technically the log5 favorite, but last week their starting point guard was charged with trafficking marijuana and their backup point guard has a turnover rate near 50%, so this is a fairly significant development. Obviously, the odds below do not fully take this into account. Ohio\u2019s lone two conference losses were to a fully-loaded Zips squad, most recently in overtime. This is a WCC-style bracket containing multiple byes for the top two seeds, but it makes more sense for the MAC to play this way. Since they\u2019ll rarely have an at-large candidate, there\u2019s more incentive for them to send their best team on to the NCAA tournament. Of special note here is the 1-in-300,000 chance for Northern Illinois, who posted an in-conference offensive efficiency a full 0.1 points-per-possession worse than any other MAC team.<\/p>\n<p>Numbers listed are the probabilities of a team advancing to each round. Unfamiliar with log5? <a href=\"http:\/\/www.chancesis.com\/2010\/10\/03\/the-origins-of-log5\/\">Here\u2019s more than you want to know<\/a>.<\/p>\n<pre>                  Rd1  Qtrs Semis Final Champ\n 1 Akron          100   100   100  73.2  45.8\n 2 Ohio           100   100   100  76.3  37.3\n 4 Kent St.       100   100  74.2  23.0  10.1\n 3 W. Michigan    100   100  64.5  17.3   4.7\n 6 Bowling Green 78.0  50.8  21.3   4.5   0.9\n 8 Buffalo       77.0  51.1  16.3   2.9   0.8\n 7 E. Michigan   87.5  36.6  11.2   1.6   0.2\n 5 Ball St.       100  37.2   7.2   0.7   0.1\n 9 C. Michigan   23.0  11.7   2.3   0.2   0.04\n11 Miami OH      22.0  10.7   2.8   0.3   0.04\n10 N. Illinois   12.5   1.9   0.2   0.008 0.0003\n<\/pre>\n<p>&nbsp;<\/p>\n","protected":false},"excerpt":{"rendered":"<p>March 11, 13-16. First round at higher seed. Remaining games at Cleveland, Ohio. All-kenpom: D.J. Cooper, Ohio (kPOY); Chris Evans, Kent State; Zeke Marshall, Akron; Javon McCrea, Buffalo; Rian Pearson, Toledo. Akron\u2019s technically the log5 favorite, but last week their starting point guard was charged with trafficking marijuana and their backup point guard has a [&hellip;]<\/p>\n","protected":false},"author":1,"featured_media":0,"comment_status":"closed","ping_status":"closed","sticky":false,"template":"","format":"standard","meta":[],"categories":[1],"tags":[],"_links":{"self":[{"href":"https:\/\/kenpom.com\/blog\/wp-json\/wp\/v2\/posts\/307"}],"collection":[{"href":"https:\/\/kenpom.com\/blog\/wp-json\/wp\/v2\/posts"}],"about":[{"href":"https:\/\/kenpom.com\/blog\/wp-json\/wp\/v2\/types\/post"}],"author":[{"embeddable":true,"href":"https:\/\/kenpom.com\/blog\/wp-json\/wp\/v2\/users\/1"}],"replies":[{"embeddable":true,"href":"https:\/\/kenpom.com\/blog\/wp-json\/wp\/v2\/comments?post=307"}],"version-history":[{"count":0,"href":"https:\/\/kenpom.com\/blog\/wp-json\/wp\/v2\/posts\/307\/revisions"}],"wp:attachment":[{"href":"https:\/\/kenpom.com\/blog\/wp-json\/wp\/v2\/media?parent=307"}],"wp:term":[{"taxonomy":"category","embeddable":true,"href":"https:\/\/kenpom.com\/blog\/wp-json\/wp\/v2\/categories?post=307"},{"taxonomy":"post_tag","embeddable":true,"href":"https:\/\/kenpom.com\/blog\/wp-json\/wp\/v2\/tags?post=307"}],"curies":[{"name":"wp","href":"https:\/\/api.w.org\/{rel}","templated":true}]}}