{"id":297,"date":"2013-03-12T14:55:33","date_gmt":"2013-03-12T20:55:33","guid":{"rendered":"http:\/\/67.227.157.91\/~kenpom\/wp_blog\/sec-log5-3\/"},"modified":"2013-03-12T14:55:33","modified_gmt":"2013-03-12T20:55:33","slug":"sec-log5-3","status":"publish","type":"post","link":"https:\/\/kenpom.com\/blog\/sec-log5-3\/","title":{"rendered":"SEC log5"},"content":{"rendered":"<p><strong>March 13-16 at Nashville, Tenn.<\/strong><\/p>\n<p><strong>All-kenpom:<\/strong> Patric Young, Florida (kPOY); Erik Murphy, Florida; Kenny Boynton, Florida; Mike Rosario, Florida; Scottie Wilbekin, Florida.<\/p>\n<p>Florida hacked the kPOY formula by its scoring-margin domination of the conference, but seriously, <em>you<\/em> find a player on another team that put up decent numbers. (The real all-SEC team, all seven players of it, has one Florida representative on it.) There\u2019s been a lot of focus on Florida\u2019s lack of success in close games, but that\u2019s obscured what Missouri has done. In their last five losses, the Tigers&#8217; margin of defeat has been 3, 2, 2, 7 (OT), and 2. That\u2019s how you get the six-seed and are the second-most likely team to win the tournament. The Tigers are playing significantly better than they were earlier in the season, but few people outside the SEC realize it.<\/p>\n<p>Vanderbilt gets half of a home-court share in this analysis.<\/p>\n<p>Numbers listed are the probabilities of a team advancing to each round. Unfamiliar with log5? <a href=\"http:\/\/www.chancesis.com\/2010\/10\/03\/the-origins-of-log5\/\">Here\u2019s more than you want to know<\/a>.<\/p>\n<pre>                Rd1  Qtrs Semis Final Champ\n 1 Florida      100   100  95.0  84.6  73.2\n 6 Missouri     100  84.1  53.4  34.5   8.6\n 2 Kentucky     100   100  66.7  31.9   6.2\n 5 Tennessee    100  91.9  60.5  10.0   5.1\n 3 Ole Miss     100   100  42.4  21.8   3.8\n 4 Alabama      100   100  38.3   3.9   1.4\n 7 Arkansas     100  51.9  17.7   5.8   0.7\n10 Vanderbilt   100  48.1  15.6   4.8   0.5\n 8 Georgia      100  50.8   2.6   0.8   0.2\n 9 LSU          100  49.2   2.4   0.7   0.2\n11 Texas A&amp;M   73.0  13.7   3.9   1.2   0.1\n12 S. Carolina 65.8   6.3   1.1   0.03  0.003\n14 Auburn      27.0   2.1   0.3   0.04  0.001\n13 Miss. St.   34.2   1.8   0.2   0.003 0.0001\n<\/pre>\n<p>&nbsp;<\/p>\n","protected":false},"excerpt":{"rendered":"<p>March 13-16 at Nashville, Tenn. All-kenpom: Patric Young, Florida (kPOY); Erik Murphy, Florida; Kenny Boynton, Florida; Mike Rosario, Florida; Scottie Wilbekin, Florida. Florida hacked the kPOY formula by its scoring-margin domination of the conference, but seriously, you find a player on another team that put up decent numbers. (The real all-SEC team, all seven players [&hellip;]<\/p>\n","protected":false},"author":1,"featured_media":0,"comment_status":"closed","ping_status":"closed","sticky":false,"template":"","format":"standard","meta":[],"categories":[1],"tags":[],"_links":{"self":[{"href":"https:\/\/kenpom.com\/blog\/wp-json\/wp\/v2\/posts\/297"}],"collection":[{"href":"https:\/\/kenpom.com\/blog\/wp-json\/wp\/v2\/posts"}],"about":[{"href":"https:\/\/kenpom.com\/blog\/wp-json\/wp\/v2\/types\/post"}],"author":[{"embeddable":true,"href":"https:\/\/kenpom.com\/blog\/wp-json\/wp\/v2\/users\/1"}],"replies":[{"embeddable":true,"href":"https:\/\/kenpom.com\/blog\/wp-json\/wp\/v2\/comments?post=297"}],"version-history":[{"count":0,"href":"https:\/\/kenpom.com\/blog\/wp-json\/wp\/v2\/posts\/297\/revisions"}],"wp:attachment":[{"href":"https:\/\/kenpom.com\/blog\/wp-json\/wp\/v2\/media?parent=297"}],"wp:term":[{"taxonomy":"category","embeddable":true,"href":"https:\/\/kenpom.com\/blog\/wp-json\/wp\/v2\/categories?post=297"},{"taxonomy":"post_tag","embeddable":true,"href":"https:\/\/kenpom.com\/blog\/wp-json\/wp\/v2\/tags?post=297"}],"curies":[{"name":"wp","href":"https:\/\/api.w.org\/{rel}","templated":true}]}}