{"id":294,"date":"2013-03-13T08:16:26","date_gmt":"2013-03-13T14:16:26","guid":{"rendered":"http:\/\/67.227.157.91\/~kenpom\/wp_blog\/big-ten-log5-3\/"},"modified":"2013-03-13T08:16:26","modified_gmt":"2013-03-13T14:16:26","slug":"big-ten-log5-3","status":"publish","type":"post","link":"https:\/\/kenpom.com\/blog\/big-ten-log5-3\/","title":{"rendered":"Big Ten log5"},"content":{"rendered":"<p><strong>March 14-17 at Chicago<\/strong><\/p>\n<p><strong>All-kenpom:<\/strong> Cody Zeller, Indiana (kPOY); Trey Burke, Michigan; Deshaun Thomas, Ohio State; Victor Oladipo, Indiana; Jared Berggren, Wisconsin.<\/p>\n<p>Big Ten teams get one more shot at beating each other up before they are set free to pummel the country\u2019s other teams. I\u2019m a little surprised nobody has mentioned that it will be more difficult to win the Big Ten tourney than the NCAA tourney, as we heard a bazillion times in 2011 regarding the Big East. I think the consensus among any group of rational humans would be that Indiana is the best team in the country, and yet there\u2019s almost a 2-in-3 shot of them leaving Chicago with a sixth loss. Cody Zeller takes the Big Ten kPOY, which is the only POY he\u2019ll be winning this season. But a 122 ORtg on 26% usage is not something that\u2019s matched by too many players across the country, regardless of team quality. Throw in seven drawn fouls per 40 minutes, and there\u2019s a case Zeller\u2019s sophomore season has been severely underappreciated.<\/p>\n<p>Numbers listed are the probabilities of a team advancing to each round. Unfamiliar with log5? <a href=\"http:\/\/www.chancesis.com\/2010\/10\/03\/the-origins-of-log5\/\">Here\u2019s more than you want to know<\/a>.<\/p>\n<pre>                Qtrs Semis Final Champ\n 1 Indiana       100  81.8  57.2  39.9\n 2 Ohio St.      100  83.9  48.8  21.1\n 3 Michigan St.  100  72.6  38.2  15.5\n 4 Wisconsin     100  52.2  18.9   9.4\n 5 Michigan     92.2  47.1  17.5   8.9\n 6 Iowa         78.5  25.0   8.8   2.2\n 9 Minnesota    60.6  12.5   4.7   1.8\n 7 Purdue       73.5  14.0   3.6   0.6\n 8 Illinois     39.4   5.7   1.6   0.5\n11 Northwestern 21.5   2.4   0.3   0.03\n10 Nebraska     26.5   2.1   0.2   0.02\n12 Penn St.      7.8   0.6   0.04  0.003\n<\/pre>\n<p>&nbsp;<\/p>\n","protected":false},"excerpt":{"rendered":"<p>March 14-17 at Chicago All-kenpom: Cody Zeller, Indiana (kPOY); Trey Burke, Michigan; Deshaun Thomas, Ohio State; Victor Oladipo, Indiana; Jared Berggren, Wisconsin. Big Ten teams get one more shot at beating each other up before they are set free to pummel the country\u2019s other teams. I\u2019m a little surprised nobody has mentioned that it will [&hellip;]<\/p>\n","protected":false},"author":1,"featured_media":0,"comment_status":"closed","ping_status":"closed","sticky":false,"template":"","format":"standard","meta":[],"categories":[1],"tags":[],"_links":{"self":[{"href":"https:\/\/kenpom.com\/blog\/wp-json\/wp\/v2\/posts\/294"}],"collection":[{"href":"https:\/\/kenpom.com\/blog\/wp-json\/wp\/v2\/posts"}],"about":[{"href":"https:\/\/kenpom.com\/blog\/wp-json\/wp\/v2\/types\/post"}],"author":[{"embeddable":true,"href":"https:\/\/kenpom.com\/blog\/wp-json\/wp\/v2\/users\/1"}],"replies":[{"embeddable":true,"href":"https:\/\/kenpom.com\/blog\/wp-json\/wp\/v2\/comments?post=294"}],"version-history":[{"count":0,"href":"https:\/\/kenpom.com\/blog\/wp-json\/wp\/v2\/posts\/294\/revisions"}],"wp:attachment":[{"href":"https:\/\/kenpom.com\/blog\/wp-json\/wp\/v2\/media?parent=294"}],"wp:term":[{"taxonomy":"category","embeddable":true,"href":"https:\/\/kenpom.com\/blog\/wp-json\/wp\/v2\/categories?post=294"},{"taxonomy":"post_tag","embeddable":true,"href":"https:\/\/kenpom.com\/blog\/wp-json\/wp\/v2\/tags?post=294"}],"curies":[{"name":"wp","href":"https:\/\/api.w.org\/{rel}","templated":true}]}}