{"id":289,"date":"2013-03-18T01:26:03","date_gmt":"2013-03-18T07:26:03","guid":{"rendered":"http:\/\/67.227.157.91\/~kenpom\/wp_blog\/2013-ncaa-tournament-log5\/"},"modified":"2013-03-18T01:26:03","modified_gmt":"2013-03-18T07:26:03","slug":"2013-ncaa-tournament-log5","status":"publish","type":"post","link":"https:\/\/kenpom.com\/blog\/2013-ncaa-tournament-log5\/","title":{"rendered":"2013 NCAA tournament log5"},"content":{"rendered":"<p>What follows is the master log5 for the 68-team field. For the noobs, here&#8217;s the deal:<\/p>\n<p>&#8211; The calculations below represent the chance of each team advancing to a specific round based on the log5 formula and each team&#8217;s pythagorean rating. Unfamiliar with log5? <a href=\"http:\/\/www.chancesis.com\/2010\/10\/03\/the-origins-of-log5\/\">Here\u2019s more than you want to know.<\/a><\/p>\n<p>&#8211; This does not represent Ken Pomeroy&#8217;s opinion. I don&#8217;t believe Florida has the best chance to win the tournament or that Pitt has the eighth-best chance, for instance.<\/p>\n<p>&#8211; Don&#8217;t interpret these numbers as saying Ken Pomeroy&#8217;s computer is predicting Florida will win the tournament. It&#8217;s saying there&#8217;s a 79% chance they won&#8217;t.<\/p>\n<p>&#8211; If you doubt that <a href=\"http:\/\/www.slate.com\/articles\/sports\/sports_nut\/2013\/03\/bracketology_march_madness_2013_the_totally_pointless_debate_over_where.html\">seeding doesn&#8217;t matter<\/a> (much) check out how similar the order of these teams is to the team&#8217;s ranking in my system. Even Pitt doesn&#8217;t suffer much as an eight-seed.<\/p>\n<pre>Seed Team           Rd32  Swt16  Elite8 Final4 Final  Champ  1 in&#8230;\n 3S  Florida        96.4   81.5   64.3   48.0   33.0   21.0    5\n 1MW Louisville     98.7   79.9   65.3   47.7   33.0   20.2    5\n 1E  Indiana        97.1   82.1   62.1   49.1   28.0   16.2    6\n 1W  Gonzaga        96.1   61.1   42.5   27.9   14.7    7.5    13\n 2W  Ohio St.       89.8   66.6   46.2   24.4   11.6    5.3    19\n 2MW Duke           93.5   63.9   40.8   18.4    9.7    4.4    23\n 1S  Kansas         95.1   69.1   42.9   18.1    9.3    4.2    24\n 8W  Pitt           72.5   32.0   20.0   11.7    5.3    2.3    43\n 5W  Wisconsin      70.7   51.1   22.7   12.8    5.5    2.3    44\n 3MW Michigan St.   80.0   54.2   27.8   11.2    5.3    2.1    47\n 4S  Michigan       86.6   57.1   29.6   11.1    5.1    2.1    49\n 2E  Miami FL       87.5   59.8   40.4   15.5    5.6    2.0    49\n 4E  Syracuse       90.7   63.1   23.1   14.3    5.4    2.0    49\n 2S  Georgetown     89.6   60.7   20.0   10.2    4.6    1.8    55\n 3W  New Mexico     83.3   47.7   20.6    7.7    2.6    0.8    123\n 4MW St. Louis      78.0   44.5   12.3    5.3    2.0    0.6    155\n 7MW Creighton      63.8   25.1   12.7    4.2    1.6    0.5    188\n 3E  Marquette      65.8   42.4   20.6    6.3    1.8    0.5    202\n 6W  Arizona        62.8   33.4   13.7    4.8    1.5    0.4    225\n 5S  VCU            66.1   29.4   12.1    3.5    1.3    0.4    262\n 5MW Oklahoma St.   61.6   33.0    8.4    3.4    1.2    0.4    275\n 9MW Missouri       53.0   11.1    5.9    2.4    0.9    0.3    365\n11S  Minnesota      60.7   12.1    5.6    2.2    0.8    0.2    445\n 7S  San Diego St.  60.7   24.8    5.7    2.1    0.7    0.2    523\n 8S  North Carolina 57.8   19.0    8.0    2.0    0.7    0.2    561\n 8MW Colorado St.   47.0    9.0    4.5    1.7    0.6    0.2    599\n 5E  UNLV           61.6   23.8    5.8    2.7    0.7    0.2    618\n 8E  N.C. State     64.9   13.0    5.5    2.6    0.6    0.2    631\n 7W  Notre Dame     52.5   16.7    7.7    2.3    0.6    0.2    651\n 4W  Kansas St.     59.1   21.7    5.8    2.2    0.6    0.1    702\n11MW St. Mary's     31.2   13.3    5.0    1.5    0.5    0.1    708\n 7E  Illinois       52.6   20.1   10.2    2.5    0.6    0.1    809\n10W  Iowa St.       47.5   14.2    6.2    1.7    0.4    0.1    1001\n12W  Ole Miss       29.3   15.3    3.9    1.4    0.4    0.08   1180\n 6MW Memphis        45.0   16.4    5.2    1.2    0.4    0.08   1215\n10E  Colorado       47.4   17.1    8.2    1.9    0.4    0.08   1257\n 6E  Butler         54.3   23.2    8.5    1.8    0.4    0.07   1488\n11MW Middle Tenn.   23.7    9.1    3.1    0.8    0.2    0.06   1680\n 9W  Wichita St.    27.5    6.6    2.7    1.0    0.2    0.06   1712\n10MW Cincinnati     36.2   10.1    3.8    0.9    0.2    0.05   1917\n11W  Belmont        37.2   15.4    4.6    1.1    0.2    0.05   1950\n12MW Oregon         38.4   16.3    3.0    0.9    0.2    0.05   1990\n 9S  Villanova      42.2   11.3    4.0    0.8    0.2    0.05   2155\n 6S  UCLA           39.3    5.7    2.1    0.6    0.2    0.04   2825\n14E  Davidson       34.2   16.7    5.6    1.1    0.2    0.03   3018\n11E  Bucknell       45.7   17.7    5.8    1.1    0.2    0.03   3214\n10S  Oklahoma       39.3   12.5    2.1    0.6    0.1    0.03   3433\n12S  Akron          33.9   10.3    2.8    0.5    0.1    0.02   4420\n12E  California     38.4   11.2    2.0    0.7    0.1    0.02   4859\n13W  Boise St.      23.0    7.0    1.5    0.5    0.1    0.02   5011\n 9E  Temple         35.1    4.5    1.3    0.4    0.07   0.01   9676\n13W  La Salle       17.9    4.9    0.9    0.3    0.05   0.009  11332\n14MW Valparaiso     20.0    6.9    1.5    0.2    0.05   0.007  13688\n13MW New Mexico St. 22.0    6.1    0.6    0.1    0.02   0.002  43849\n13S  S. Dakota St.  13.4    3.2    0.5    0.05   0.007  0.0007 147873\n15W  Iona           10.2    2.5    0.5    0.06   0.007  0.0007 149621\n14W  Harvard        16.7    3.6    0.5    0.06   0.006  0.0005 185251\n15E  Pacific        12.5    3.0    0.7    0.07   0.005  0.0004 227653\n15S  Fla Gulf Coast 10.4    2.1    0.1    0.02   0.002  0.0001 827389\n13E  Montana         9.3    1.8    0.1    0.02   0.001  <.0001 1226993\n14S  Northwestern St 3.6    0.6    0.08   0.009  0.0009 <.0001 1624189\n15MW Albany          6.5    0.9    0.1    0.007  0.0005 <.0001 2970664\n16S  W. Kentucky     4.9    0.6    0.05   0.002  0.0002 <.0001 14116410\n16W  Southern        3.9    0.3    0.03   0.002  0.0001 <.0001 18436877\n16E  James Madison   1.5    0.2    0.02   0.002  0.0001 <.0001 20050035\n16E  LIU Brooklyn    1.4    0.2    0.02   0.002  0.0001 <.0001 21000589\n16MW N.C. A&amp;T        0.9    0.05   0.004  0.0002 <.0001 <.0001 577586835\n16MW Liberty         0.5    0.02   0.001  <.0001 <.0001 <.0001 4164692791<\/pre>\n","protected":false},"excerpt":{"rendered":"<p>What follows is the master log5 for the 68-team field. For the noobs, here&#8217;s the deal: &#8211; The calculations below represent the chance of each team advancing to a specific round based on the log5 formula and each team&#8217;s pythagorean rating. Unfamiliar with log5? Here\u2019s more than you want to know. &#8211; This does not [&hellip;]<\/p>\n","protected":false},"author":1,"featured_media":0,"comment_status":"closed","ping_status":"closed","sticky":false,"template":"","format":"standard","meta":[],"categories":[1],"tags":[],"_links":{"self":[{"href":"https:\/\/kenpom.com\/blog\/wp-json\/wp\/v2\/posts\/289"}],"collection":[{"href":"https:\/\/kenpom.com\/blog\/wp-json\/wp\/v2\/posts"}],"about":[{"href":"https:\/\/kenpom.com\/blog\/wp-json\/wp\/v2\/types\/post"}],"author":[{"embeddable":true,"href":"https:\/\/kenpom.com\/blog\/wp-json\/wp\/v2\/users\/1"}],"replies":[{"embeddable":true,"href":"https:\/\/kenpom.com\/blog\/wp-json\/wp\/v2\/comments?post=289"}],"version-history":[{"count":0,"href":"https:\/\/kenpom.com\/blog\/wp-json\/wp\/v2\/posts\/289\/revisions"}],"wp:attachment":[{"href":"https:\/\/kenpom.com\/blog\/wp-json\/wp\/v2\/media?parent=289"}],"wp:term":[{"taxonomy":"category","embeddable":true,"href":"https:\/\/kenpom.com\/blog\/wp-json\/wp\/v2\/categories?post=289"},{"taxonomy":"post_tag","embeddable":true,"href":"https:\/\/kenpom.com\/blog\/wp-json\/wp\/v2\/tags?post=289"}],"curies":[{"name":"wp","href":"https:\/\/api.w.org\/{rel}","templated":true}]}}