{"id":287,"date":"2013-03-20T01:50:22","date_gmt":"2013-03-20T07:50:22","guid":{"rendered":"http:\/\/67.227.157.91\/~kenpom\/wp_blog\/florida-will-probably-lose-and-it-will-probably-be-close\/"},"modified":"2013-03-20T01:50:22","modified_gmt":"2013-03-20T07:50:22","slug":"florida-will-probably-lose-and-it-will-probably-be-close","status":"publish","type":"post","link":"https:\/\/kenpom.com\/blog\/florida-will-probably-lose-and-it-will-probably-be-close\/","title":{"rendered":"Florida will probably lose, and it will probably be close"},"content":{"rendered":"

Florida is 0-6 in games decided by single-digits. A big deal is made of this. A big deal is not made of Indiana going an unimpressive 7-5 in such games, or Louisville going 6-5. Louisville\u2019s record even includes a five-overtime game in which they screwed up the end-game situation six separate times<\/a>, but that hasn\u2019t stopped nearly every expert from picking them. (And for the record, I think it’s a fine pick. Just don’t tell me that you can’t pick Florida because Kenny Boynton is unreliable in crunch time when Russ Smith’s track record is equally poor.)<\/p>\n

Maybe if Florida had played worse in some of their 26 double-digit wins, we wouldn\u2019t be having this discussion. Personally, I don’t think that would make sense. Consider the flip side – if Indiana had turned its close wins into double-digit margins, almost surely we’d be hearing about their lack of clutchness. It’s bizarre to me that people would punish a team for its ability to put opponents away. With this in mind, though, I found seven Florida wins against decent competition that had at least a moderate amount of tension at some point in the second half. <\/p>\n

1. 3\/16 vs. #61 Alabama (at Nashville) Trailed by 10 with 14 to go. Won by 10.
\n2. 3\/2 vs. #61 Alabama Trailed by 8 with 12 minutes left. Won by 12.
\n3. 2\/23 vs. #73 Arkansas Led by 4 at halftime. Won by 17.
\n4. 1\/23 at #97 Georgia Trailed by 3 at halftime. Led by 14 with 10 to go. Won by 17.
\n5. 12\/29 vs. #87 Air Force (at Miami) Led by 1 with 17 to go. Won by 17.
\n6. 11\/23 vs. #138 UCF Led by 7 with 17:30 left. Won by 13.
\n7. 11\/18 vs. #32 Middle Tennessee (at Tampa) Led by 4 with 16 minutes left. Won by 19.<\/p>\n

If the Gators had just consistently struggled a little more down the stretch in these games, people could say they were 7-6 in close games and totally deserving of their high computer rankings. Or something like that. <\/p>\n

Not surprisingly, Mike DeCourcy has stoked the embers of his semi-permanent battle with \u201cmetrics people\u201d. (As if people who try to measure things are somehow a special breed from everyone else.) Mike’s a brilliant writer whose barbs on this subject are not brilliant and usually worth ignoring. But I guess I’m desperate for an entertaining blog post the day before the tourney really starts. Take it away, Mike!<\/p>\n

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One thing metrics people can’t avoid: Florida is ultimate test case. Best per possession team in America. Lost every tough game outside FLA.<\/p>\n

— Michael DeCourcy (@tsnmike) March 19, 2013<\/a><\/p><\/blockquote>\n