{"id":280,"date":"2013-03-30T13:28:52","date_gmt":"2013-03-30T19:28:52","guid":{"rendered":"http:\/\/67.227.157.91\/~kenpom\/wp_blog\/this-seasons-leastlikely-comebacks\/"},"modified":"2013-03-30T13:28:52","modified_gmt":"2013-03-30T19:28:52","slug":"this-seasons-leastlikely-comebacks","status":"publish","type":"post","link":"https:\/\/kenpom.com\/blog\/this-seasons-leastlikely-comebacks\/","title":{"rendered":"This season’s least-likely comebacks"},"content":{"rendered":"

Michigan\u2019s comeback over Kansas<\/a>, trailing by ten with 2:32 left and playing defense, had a 0.62% chance of occurring according to my win probability model<\/a>. This was the 15th least-likely comeback of the season. (Ranking just ahead of Michigan\u2019s own collapse to Penn State<\/a> on February 27.) What follows are the 13 comebacks from this season that ranked as more unlikely. <\/p>\n

14. February 9, East Tennessee State over Stetson<\/a>, 0.55%. (Trailed 54-35 with 11:17 to go, won 62-61.)<\/p>\n

13. January 17, Chattanooga over Appalachian State<\/a>, 0.50%. (Trailed 64-45 with 6:36 left, won 91-88, OT.)<\/p>\n

10. December 18, Lipscomb over Austin Peay<\/a>, 0.47% . (Trailed 84-72 3:09 left, won 87-84.)<\/p>\n

10. December 11, NJIT over Army<\/a>, 0.47%. (Trailed 63-51 with 3:06 left, won 69-67.) <\/p>\n

10. December 28, Brown over Providence<\/a>,  0.47%. (Trailed 67-60 with 0:55 left, won 69-68.) <\/p>\n

9. January 17, Valparaiso over Detroit<\/a>, 0.46%. (Trailed 88-77 with 3:01 left, won 89-88.) <\/p>\n

8. February 9, Eastern Washington over Northern Arizona<\/a>, 0.43%. (Trailed 58-40 with 7:15 to go, won 77-74, OT.)<\/p>\n

7. January 24, Richmond over VCU<\/a>, 0.38%. (Trailed 65-58 with 0:37 to go, won 86-74, OT.)<\/p>\n

6. December 29, Towson over Oregon State<\/a>, 0.36%. (Trailed 44-25 with 15:48 left, won 67-66, OT.)<\/p>\n

5. November 23, Fairleigh Dickinson over Delaware State<\/a>, 0.34%. (Trailed 59-52 with 0:35 left, won 63-32.)<\/p>\n

3. February 9, Notre Dame over Louisville<\/a>, 0.28%. (Trailed 56-48 with 0:51 to go, won 104-101, 5OT.)<\/p>\n

3. February 16, Texas over Oklahoma<\/a>, 0.28%. (Trailed 67-45, 7:54 to go, won 92-86 OT.)<\/p>\n

2. November 25, Cal Poly over UCLA<\/a>, 0.24%. (Trailed 51-33 with 12:03 to go, won 70-68.)<\/p>\n

1. March 2, Northern Kentucky over Jacksonville<\/a>, 0.22%. (Trailed 58-45 2:27 to go, won 66-62.) <\/p>\n

 <\/p>\n","protected":false},"excerpt":{"rendered":"

Michigan\u2019s comeback over Kansas, trailing by ten with 2:32 left and playing defense, had a 0.62% chance of occurring according to my win probability model. This was the 15th least-likely comeback of the season. (Ranking just ahead of Michigan\u2019s own collapse to Penn State on February 27.) What follows are the 13 comebacks from this […]<\/p>\n","protected":false},"author":1,"featured_media":0,"comment_status":"closed","ping_status":"closed","sticky":false,"template":"","format":"standard","meta":[],"categories":[1],"tags":[],"_links":{"self":[{"href":"https:\/\/kenpom.com\/blog\/wp-json\/wp\/v2\/posts\/280"}],"collection":[{"href":"https:\/\/kenpom.com\/blog\/wp-json\/wp\/v2\/posts"}],"about":[{"href":"https:\/\/kenpom.com\/blog\/wp-json\/wp\/v2\/types\/post"}],"author":[{"embeddable":true,"href":"https:\/\/kenpom.com\/blog\/wp-json\/wp\/v2\/users\/1"}],"replies":[{"embeddable":true,"href":"https:\/\/kenpom.com\/blog\/wp-json\/wp\/v2\/comments?post=280"}],"version-history":[{"count":0,"href":"https:\/\/kenpom.com\/blog\/wp-json\/wp\/v2\/posts\/280\/revisions"}],"wp:attachment":[{"href":"https:\/\/kenpom.com\/blog\/wp-json\/wp\/v2\/media?parent=280"}],"wp:term":[{"taxonomy":"category","embeddable":true,"href":"https:\/\/kenpom.com\/blog\/wp-json\/wp\/v2\/categories?post=280"},{"taxonomy":"post_tag","embeddable":true,"href":"https:\/\/kenpom.com\/blog\/wp-json\/wp\/v2\/tags?post=280"}],"curies":[{"name":"wp","href":"https:\/\/api.w.org\/{rel}","templated":true}]}}