{"id":259,"date":"2013-11-20T18:38:07","date_gmt":"2013-11-21T00:38:07","guid":{"rendered":"http:\/\/67.227.157.91\/~kenpom\/wp_blog\/inseason-tournament-log5-analysis\/"},"modified":"2013-11-20T18:38:07","modified_gmt":"2013-11-21T00:38:07","slug":"inseason-tournament-log5-analysis","status":"publish","type":"post","link":"https:\/\/kenpom.com\/blog\/inseason-tournament-log5-analysis\/","title":{"rendered":"In&#45;season tournament log5 analysis"},"content":{"rendered":"<p>In-season tournaments begin tomorrow, providing fans with a steady dose of matinee basketball for the next two weeks. Here\u2019s your log5 guide to those events. Only true eight-team brackets are eligible for this analysis. (Sorry, teams in fake pre-determined brackets.) These tournaments are ordered by strength of field, from weakest to strongest.<\/p>\n<p><strong>Gulf Coast Showcase (TV: ???, Nov. 25-27)<\/strong><\/p>\n<pre>                 Semis Final Champ\n 99 San Diego     87.7  48.8  28.9\n100 La. Tech      83.0  45.8  27.1\n103 St. Bona.     73.6  49.7  25.5\n169 Wagner        75.4  33.4  13.2\n222 S. Illinois   26.4  11.6   3.2\n279 Stetson       24.6   5.3   1.0\n276 NC Greensboro 17.0   3.0   0.7\n302 Ill. Chicago  12.3   2.4   0.5\n\n<\/pre>\n<p><strong>What to watch for: Uh, I don\u2019t think you can actually watch this unless you&#8217;re at Germain Arena.<\/strong> This new tournament is showcasing some mediocre mid-majors. But I\u2019ll never complain about new tournaments on the schedule, especially when they figure to produce a few competitive matchups.<\/p>\n<p><strong>Great Alaska Shootout (TV: CBS Sports Network, Nov. 27-30)<\/strong><\/p>\n<pre>                 Semis Final Champ\n 57 Indiana St.   70.8  62.7  35.4\n 49 Harvard       70.0  48.0  30.2\n 83 Green Bay     74.2  31.8  16.1\n133 Tulsa         29.2  22.3   7.9\n118 Denver        30.0  14.8   6.5\n208 Pepperdine    25.8   5.5   1.6\n NR Alaska Anc.   54.3   8.7   1.4\n268 TCU           45.7   6.4   0.9\n\n<\/pre>\n<p><strong>Reason to watch: A D-II team being favored in a game.<\/strong> It\u2019s possible TCU isn\u2019t the worst D-I squad in the bracket, but it\u2019s also possible that they\u2019ll be an underdog in their first round game against Alaska-Anchorage. The Seawolves are notoriously tough in this event and if TCU is favored it won\u2019t be by much. Indiana State benefits by drawing the winner of that game, and thus gets an edge over higher-ranked Harvard in terms of its chance of winning the event.<\/p>\n<p><strong>Paradise Jam (TV: CBS Sports Network, Nov. 22-25)<\/strong><\/p>\n<pre>                 Semis Final Champ\n 61 Maryland      91.0  63.3  33.5\n 44 Providence    64.2  48.3  31.0\n 76 Vanderbilt    35.8  22.7  11.5\n108 La Salle      79.9  26.7  11.4\n122 Northern Iowa 56.3  21.0   7.6\n155 Loyola Mmt    43.7  14.0   4.3\n260 Morgan St.    20.1   2.3   0.4\n287 Marist         9.0   1.7   0.2\n\n<\/pre>\n<p><strong>Reason to watch: La Salle finding itself.<\/strong> Maryland gets the edge here by virtue of its first-round friendly against Marist. What\u2019s the deal with La Salle? The Explorers figured to be really good this season, what with bringing back an experienced core form a Sweet 16 team, but they haven&#8217;t looked sharp in starting the season 2-2 with ugly wins against Quinnipiac and Siena. Some of this is dumb luck &#8211; opponents are making high percentage of their threes (39.7%) and grabbing a ridiculous number of missed shots (39.7% vs. 26.7% last season), too. I wouldn\u2019t take them too lightly here.<\/p>\n<p><strong>Puerto Rico Tip-Off (TV: ESPN2\/3\/U, Nov. 21, 22, 24)<\/strong><\/p>\n<pre>                 Semis Final Champ\n  7 VCU           76.5  45.5  30.9\n 18 Michigan      90.8  45.8  28.7\n 25 Georgetown    82.9  59.8  27.1\n 63 Kansas St.    73.6  28.7   8.3\n 65 Florida St.   23.5   7.8   3.2\n148 Charlotte     17.1   6.2   1.0\n164 Northeastern  26.4   5.3   0.7\n202 Long Beach St. 9.2   1.0   0.2\n\n<\/pre>\n<p><strong>What to watch for: VCU\u2019s defense against a team that takes care of the ball.<\/strong> Who do the new rules interpretations affect? You might think a team like VCU that relies on forcing turnovers. Well, guess again. VCU is still forcing turnovers, and the Rams are fouling a lot more, too, but it hasn\u2019t been a problem so far. They should face Michigan in the semifinals and under the old interpretations, things didn\u2019t go so well for the Rams when the two teams squared off last March. A rematch would make for compelling viewing.<\/p>\n<p><strong>Charleston Classic (TV: ESPN2\/3\/U, Nov. 21, 22, 24)<\/strong><\/p>\n<pre>                 Semis Final Champ\n 21 New Mexico    78.5  53.3  40.8\n 47 UMass         60.4  25.6  16.8\n 56 Clemson       46.0  18.9   9.4\n 70 Nebraska      39.6  13.1   8.7\n116 Georgia       56.6  32.7   8.7\n125 Temple        54.0  27.4   6.9\n152 Davidson      43.4  21.0   4.6\n 94 UAB           21.5   7.9   4.1\n\n<\/pre>\n<p>What to watch for: Quality, yet obscure teams. This is sort of like the American Idol of in-season tournaments. Some of these teams fancy themselves as at-large possibilities and the rest of the country doesn\u2019t know much about them. A good audition here, and a UMass, Clemson, Nebraska, or UAB can rack up some wins that will matter when mock brackets are being generated. <\/p>\n<p><strong>Wooden Legacy (ESPN\/2\/3\/U, Nov. 28-30)<\/strong><\/p>\n<pre>                 Semis Final Champ\n 15 Creighton     61.7  47.9  35.7\n 53 Marquette     79.7  47.9  19.2\n 32 Arizona St.   38.3  26.3  17.0\n 66 San Diego St. 84.2  24.6  12.4\n 64 George Wash.  55.2  26.9   8.9\n 86 Miami FL      44.8  19.6   5.7\n196 Cal St. Full. 20.3   5.6   0.9\n246 Charleston    15.8   1.1   0.2\n<\/pre>\n<p><strong>What to watch for: Maurice Creek.<\/strong> Fullerton gets to play on his home floor for the first two games, and that\u2019s not accounted for here. That will make the likelihood of an all-Big East final a little more remote as Marquette draws the Titans in the first round. Maurice Creek has been a revelation for Mike Lonergan\u2019s GW squad, making 16 of his first 25 threes so far for the 4-0 Colonials. Hey, the graduate transfer rule benefits the mid-major for once. The first president has a first-round grudge match with Miami.<\/p>\n<p><strong>Old Spice Classic (TV: ESPN\/2\/3\/U, Nov. 28, 29, Dec. 1)<\/strong><\/p>\n<pre>                 Semis Final Champ\n  3 Oklahoma St.  86.5  74.1  56.2\n 24 Memphis       93.9  62.2  24.5\n 51 LSU           54.0  20.9   5.9\n 59 Butler        66.2  14.7   5.9\n 62 St. Joseph's  46.0  16.2   4.1\n 69 Purdue        13.5   6.7   2.3\n107 Wash. St.     33.8   4.6   1.2\n259 Siena          6.1   0.7   0.04\n<\/pre>\n<p><strong>What to watch for: An upset.<\/strong> I wouldn\u2019t mind seeing an Oklahoma State\/Memphis rematch in the finals, if only because the game would surely be more competitive than Tuesday night\u2019s contest.Having to play a quality team you just smoked presents an interesting mental challenge. But the chances of that game happening are a bit less than 50 percent, even with Memphis getting a virtual first-round bye. Compounding probabilities are fun.<\/p>\n<p><strong>Battle 4 Atlantis (AXS TV\/NBC Sports Network, Nov. 28-30)<\/strong><\/p>\n<pre>                 Semis Final Champ\n  4 Kansas        88.5  59.3  43.1\n 16 Villanova     85.1  36.0  22.2\n 19 Iowa          63.2  42.3  17.4\n 41 Tennessee     66.3  28.3   8.6\n 43 Xavier        36.8  20.0   5.9\n 75 UTEP          33.7   9.3   1.7\n101 Wake Forest   11.5   2.7   0.7\n119 USC           14.9   2.0   0.5\n<\/pre>\n<p><strong>What to watch for: Humans battling 4 mythical underwater cities.<\/strong> Imagine how dumb they will feel when they find out what they\u2019re battling 4. This was the premier in-season tournament a year ago and the field\u2019s not quite as strong this season, but there\u2019s still some intrigue. I feel like there\u2019s a bit of a bias nationally against the Big East. Since they don\u2019t have football, they can\u2019t be considered a strong basketball conference. That seems to be the logic. However, from top to bottom, this is a really nice conference&#8212;yes, that includes DePaul&#8212;and Villanova and Xavier can advance that idea with a good showing in the Bahamas.<\/p>\n<p><strong>Maui Invitational (TV: ESPN\/2, Nov. 25-27)<\/strong><\/p>\n<pre>                 Semis Final Champ\n 12 Gonzaga       80.5  54.6  31.7\n 29 Baylor        94.5  41.0  19.3\n 22 Minnesota     54.7  33.3  18.4\n 31 California    69.6  30.5  13.8\n 23 Syracuse      45.3  25.5  13.0\n 74 Arkansas      30.4   8.1   2.1\n 79 Dayton        19.5   6.8   1.7\n NR Chaminade      5.5   0.2   0.01\n<\/pre>\n<p><strong>What to watch for: Andre Hollins.<\/strong> Why don\u2019t people talk about Andre Hollins? That\u2019s a rhetorical question: It\u2019s clear he\u2019s not a winner. That\u2019s the reason guys like Larry Drew, Phil Pressey, and Aaron Craft have have had many more words written about them in the last 12 months than Hollins even though Hollins is one of the best two-way point guards in the country. I don\u2019t think it\u2019s too tough to follow the logic that if Hollins had Craft\u2019s teammates, he wins more games. Anyway, it\u2019s going to be hard to prove the critics wrong in Maui, where a loss or two by Minnesota is likely against the toughest field of all the tourneys.<\/p>\n","protected":false},"excerpt":{"rendered":"<p>In-season tournaments begin tomorrow, providing fans with a steady dose of matinee basketball for the next two weeks. Here\u2019s your log5 guide to those events. Only true eight-team brackets are eligible for this analysis. (Sorry, teams in fake pre-determined brackets.) These tournaments are ordered by strength of field, from weakest to strongest. Gulf Coast Showcase [&hellip;]<\/p>\n","protected":false},"author":1,"featured_media":0,"comment_status":"closed","ping_status":"closed","sticky":false,"template":"","format":"standard","meta":[],"categories":[1],"tags":[],"_links":{"self":[{"href":"https:\/\/kenpom.com\/blog\/wp-json\/wp\/v2\/posts\/259"}],"collection":[{"href":"https:\/\/kenpom.com\/blog\/wp-json\/wp\/v2\/posts"}],"about":[{"href":"https:\/\/kenpom.com\/blog\/wp-json\/wp\/v2\/types\/post"}],"author":[{"embeddable":true,"href":"https:\/\/kenpom.com\/blog\/wp-json\/wp\/v2\/users\/1"}],"replies":[{"embeddable":true,"href":"https:\/\/kenpom.com\/blog\/wp-json\/wp\/v2\/comments?post=259"}],"version-history":[{"count":0,"href":"https:\/\/kenpom.com\/blog\/wp-json\/wp\/v2\/posts\/259\/revisions"}],"wp:attachment":[{"href":"https:\/\/kenpom.com\/blog\/wp-json\/wp\/v2\/media?parent=259"}],"wp:term":[{"taxonomy":"category","embeddable":true,"href":"https:\/\/kenpom.com\/blog\/wp-json\/wp\/v2\/categories?post=259"},{"taxonomy":"post_tag","embeddable":true,"href":"https:\/\/kenpom.com\/blog\/wp-json\/wp\/v2\/tags?post=259"}],"curies":[{"name":"wp","href":"https:\/\/api.w.org\/{rel}","templated":true}]}}