{"id":243,"date":"2014-01-02T15:16:51","date_gmt":"2014-01-02T21:16:51","guid":{"rendered":"http:\/\/67.227.157.91\/~kenpom\/wp_blog\/conferencerace-simulations-part-iii\/"},"modified":"2014-01-02T15:16:51","modified_gmt":"2014-01-02T21:16:51","slug":"conferencerace-simulations-part-iii","status":"publish","type":"post","link":"https:\/\/kenpom.com\/blog\/conferencerace-simulations-part-iii\/","title":{"rendered":"Conference-race simulations: Part III"},"content":{"rendered":"

This is the third and final part of my look at every conference race using a Monte Carlo and my current ratings for each team. The listed numbers are how many simulations each team won out of 10,000, so divide that number by 100 to get the percent chance I am giving each team of winning the one-seed for its conference tournament. (Note: not all teams listed are eligible for their conference tournament, so in some cases it\u2019s a mythical one-seed.) If a team isn\u2019t listed, I didn\u2019t forget about them – they didn\u2019t win a single simulation.<\/p>\n

Conferences are ordered from least to most competitive. These are the ten most-competitive conference races. The following results include all games played through yesterday.<\/p>\n

10. Sun Belt<\/strong><\/p>\n

The pick: Louisiana Lafayette.<\/strong> Bob Marlin\u2019s team has looked very good aside from a 39-point drubbing to Louisville. Point guard Elfrid Payton is putting up Marcus Smart-type numbers. He’s not a great perimeter shooter, but he gets to the free-throw line so much that he\u2019s a major problem for opposing defenses. <\/p>\n

The contrarian pick: Georgia State.<\/strong> The Panthers have been exactly what you might have thought coming into the season. A great offensive team led by R.J. Hunter and Ryan Harrow, with a little bit of Manny Atkins thrown in. They\u2019re the contrarian pick because I\u2019m not sure how many people know they are in the Sun Belt this season.<\/p>\n

Louisiana Lafayette    4056\nGeorgia St.            3178\nSouth Alabama           864\nWestern Kentucky        763\nUT Arlington            677\nArkansas St.            339\nLouisiana Monroe         91\nArkansas Little Rock     18\nTexas St.                10\nTroy                      4\n\n<\/pre>\n
9. Conference USA<\/strong><\/p>\n
The pick: Louisiana Tech.<\/strong> The Bulldogs were picked second by an esteemed panel of experts<\/a> and they haven\u2019t disappointed, what with recently winning at Oklahoma. Michale Kyser is one of the best shot-blockers in the country and leads a defense that will give some problems to the rest of C-USA.<\/p>\n
The contrarian pick: UTEP.<\/strong> Since Southern Miss was picked to win the league by that same esteemed panel of experts, the contrarian pick has to be a team that lost at home to New Orleans. <\/p>\n
Louisiana Tech         4045\nSouthern Miss          3026\nUTEP                    978\nUAB                     839\nCharlotte               666\nMiddle Tennessee        157\nTulsa                    94\nEast Carolina            90\nNorth Texas              47\nMarshall                 18\nFIU                      16\nOld Dominion             16\nFlorida Atlantic          6\nRice                      1\n\n<\/pre>\n
8. ACC<\/strong><\/p>\n
The pick: Syracuse.<\/strong> I\u2019m not saying this was common thought, but if there was an idea that there\u2019s some sort of adjustment period for a team playing in a new conference, I think Syracuse will be one of a few examples in 2014 of how that is a dumb idea.<\/p>\n
The contrarian pick: Pitt.<\/strong> The Panthers\u2019 chances are overstated here because I suspect Duke\u2019s chances are understated. Still, I think there’s a way they could go 13-5 in ACC play and spread out those losses in a way that would prevent them from being ranked by the AP. I’m really hoping for that, actually.<\/p>\n
Syracuse               4032\nPittsburgh             2141\nDuke                   1727\nNorth Carolina         1085\nFlorida St.             471\nClemson                 250\nVirginia                165\nNotre Dame               80\nMaryland                 26\nNorth Carolina St.       12\nWake Forest               6\nVirginia Tech             3\nMiami FL                  2\n\n<\/pre>\n
7. OVC<\/strong><\/p>\n
The pick: Belmont.<\/strong> You remember Belmont\u2019s win at UNC, but overall it hasn\u2019t a been a smooth journey through the non-conference slate for the Bruins. They\u2019re the favorite to win the conference, but just barely.<\/p>\n
The contrarian pick: Eastern Kentucky.<\/strong> There are some teams lining up behind Belmont, but the Colonels once took VCU to overtime, so beware.<\/p>\n
Belmont                3939\nEastern Kentucky       3307\nMorehead St.           1330\nSoutheast Missouri St. 1155\nMurray St.              181\nAustin Peay              44\nTennessee Tech           20\nJacksonville St.          9\nEastern Illinois          6\nTennessee Martin          4\nTennessee St.             4\nSIU Edwardsville          2\n\n<\/pre>\n
6. Big Sky<\/strong><\/p>\n
The pick: Montana.<\/strong> I\u2019ve never the SOS imbalance that the Griz has going on right now. They\u2019ve faced the seventh-best set of offenses and the 295th-best defenses. Thus, their raw offensive numbers look great and the defense looks poor. Hopefully, Wayne Tinkle understands that once conference play begins, those numbers are going to even out. <\/p>\n
The contrarian pick: Northern Colorado.<\/strong> The Bears won at Kansas State to start the season, which at the time was just an excuse for people to make Bruce Weber jokes. But hey, Kansas State\u2019s actually decent, and so is UNC-Greeley.<\/p>\n
Montana                3849\nNorthern Colorado      2646\nWeber St.              2635\nEastern Washington      481\nIdaho St.               157\nNorth Dakota            133\nNorthern Arizona         51\nMontana St.              25\nPortland St.             17\nSacramento St.            7\n\n<\/pre>\n
5. SEC<\/strong><\/p>\n
The pick: Kentucky.<\/strong> It\u2019s a close call between the Wildcats and Gators, but the edge at the moment goes to Kentucky. UK isn\u2019t shooting the ball great, but they lead the nation in offensive rebounding percentage and free throw rate. Which means the eye test won\u2019t give their offense as much credit as it deserves. <\/p>\n
The contrarian pick: LSU.<\/strong> The Tigers are the sleeper of all sleepers. They\u2019re a two-point loss to UMass and seven-point loss to Memphis from being unbeaten and national darlings, and from people anointing Johnny Jones as the next Brad Stevens. OK, maybe that wouldn\u2019t be happening yet, but if LSU contends for the SEC with a sub six-foot backcourt, Jones would start getting his due.<\/p>\n
Kentucky               3765\nFlorida                3277\nTennessee              1213\nLSU                     727\nMissouri                440\nArkansas                404\nAlabama                  92\nMississippi              55\nSouth Carolina           17\nVanderbilt                7\nGeorgia                   1\n\n<\/pre>\n
4. A-10<\/strong><\/p>\n
The pick: UMass.<\/strong> The Minutemen have played a hellacious schedule, with just four true home games and only one gimme game – a home contest against Northern Illinois. They\u2019ve risked a loss 11 times and only have one defeat to show for it. <\/p>\n
The contrarian pick: Dayton.<\/strong> Saint Louis and VCU are still on the radar and got plenty of preseason ink, but Dayton\u2019s 11-3 and been one of the unluckiest teams in the land so far. <\/p>\n
Massachusetts          3527\nSaint Louis            2921\nVCU                    1678\nDayton                  927\nRichmond                297\nGeorge Washington       282\nSaint Joseph's          218\nSt. Bonaventure          69\nGeorge Mason             44\nLa Salle                 36\nFordham                   2\n\n<\/pre>\n
3. Big South<\/strong><\/p>\n
The pick: Charleston Southern.<\/strong> Charleston Southern is a fun team. They\u2019ve only beaten two D-I teams so far, but one of those was at a really good Delaware team and they\u2019ve been competitive against some high-quality competition such as New Mexico, Baylor, and Florida State.<\/p>\n
The contrarian pick: Radford.<\/strong> The Highlanders last won the conference in 2009 when the great Artsiom Parakhouski patrolled the paint. He was 6-11, 240. The tallest player on this year\u2019s edition is 6-8, 205 Jalen Carethers. <\/p>\n
Charleston Southern    3307\nUNC Asheville          1645\nRadford                1575\nWinthrop               1008\nLiberty                 656\nGardner Webb            650\nVMI                     525\nCoastal Carolina        286\nHigh Point              266\nCampbell                 72\nLongwood                  9\nPresbyterian              1\n\n<\/pre>\n
2. NEC<\/strong><\/p>\n
The pick: Bryant.<\/strong> How can you not root for a team that has a player named Claybrin McMath on the roster?<\/p>\n
The contrarian pick: St. Francis Brooklyn.<\/strong> The Terriers have never appeared in the NCAA tournament. This could be the year. <\/p>\n
Bryant                 3236\nRobert Morris          2750\nSt. Francis NY         1977\nWagner                 1159\nCentral Connecticut     297\nMount St. Mary's        237\nLIU Brooklyn            185\nSacred Heart            143\nFairleigh Dickinson      14\nSt. Francis PA            2\n\n<\/pre>\n
1. Patriot League<\/strong><\/p>\n
The pick: Boston U.<\/strong> The winner for least-predictable conference race goes to the Patriot League. This is a bit of an upset in itself because before the season, it seemed like BU was the obvious choice to win the league. Now, there\u2019s about a 70% chance they won\u2019t.<\/p>\n
The contrarian pick: You make the call.<\/strong> The bottom line is that there\u2019s more parity at the top of the Patriot than any other conference. Bucknell, Holy Cross, Colgate, or Lehigh; even Lafayette and American, just go with whatever your gut tells you. <\/p>\n
Boston University      3018\nHoly Cross             2008\nBucknell               1941\nColgate                1303\nLehigh                  749\nLafayette               460\nAmerican                441\nLoyola MD                56\nArmy                     21\nNavy                      1\n<\/pre>\n","protected":false},"excerpt":{"rendered":"
This is the third and final part of my look at every conference race using a Monte Carlo and my current ratings for each team. The listed numbers are how many simulations each team won out of 10,000, so divide that number by 100 to get the percent chance I am giving each team of […]<\/p>\n","protected":false},"author":1,"featured_media":0,"comment_status":"closed","ping_status":"closed","sticky":false,"template":"","format":"standard","meta":[],"categories":[1],"tags":[],"_links":{"self":[{"href":"https:\/\/kenpom.com\/blog\/wp-json\/wp\/v2\/posts\/243"}],"collection":[{"href":"https:\/\/kenpom.com\/blog\/wp-json\/wp\/v2\/posts"}],"about":[{"href":"https:\/\/kenpom.com\/blog\/wp-json\/wp\/v2\/types\/post"}],"author":[{"embeddable":true,"href":"https:\/\/kenpom.com\/blog\/wp-json\/wp\/v2\/users\/1"}],"replies":[{"embeddable":true,"href":"https:\/\/kenpom.com\/blog\/wp-json\/wp\/v2\/comments?post=243"}],"version-history":[{"count":0,"href":"https:\/\/kenpom.com\/blog\/wp-json\/wp\/v2\/posts\/243\/revisions"}],"wp:attachment":[{"href":"https:\/\/kenpom.com\/blog\/wp-json\/wp\/v2\/media?parent=243"}],"wp:term":[{"taxonomy":"category","embeddable":true,"href":"https:\/\/kenpom.com\/blog\/wp-json\/wp\/v2\/categories?post=243"},{"taxonomy":"post_tag","embeddable":true,"href":"https:\/\/kenpom.com\/blog\/wp-json\/wp\/v2\/tags?post=243"}],"curies":[{"name":"wp","href":"https:\/\/api.w.org\/{rel}","templated":true}]}}