{"id":214,"date":"2014-03-04T13:16:54","date_gmt":"2014-03-04T19:16:54","guid":{"rendered":"http:\/\/67.227.157.91\/~kenpom\/wp_blog\/big-south-log5-2\/"},"modified":"2014-03-04T13:16:54","modified_gmt":"2014-03-04T19:16:54","slug":"big-south-log5-2","status":"publish","type":"post","link":"https:\/\/kenpom.com\/blog\/big-south-log5-2\/","title":{"rendered":"Big South log5"},"content":{"rendered":"<p><em>I\u2019m using my ratings and Bill James\u2019 log5 formula to estimate the chances of each participating team advancing to a particular round of its conference tournament.<\/em><\/p>\n<p><strong>Big South<\/strong><br \/>\n<strong>Location:<\/strong> Coastal Carolina<br \/>\n<strong>Dates:<\/strong> March 5, 7-9<br \/>\n<strong>Chance of bid thief:<\/strong> zero<br \/>\n<strong>Current kPOY:<\/strong> John Brown, High Point<\/p>\n<p><strong>Projections:<\/strong><\/p>\n<pre>\n                 Qtrs  Semis  Final  Champ\n1S C. Carolina    100   69.9   45.2   28.4\n2S UNC Asheville  100   58.4   31.5   14.4\n2N VMI            100   57.8   24.5   12.7\n1N High Point     100   52.8   25.9   11.9\n3N Radford       86.9   40.1   20.1    8.4\n4S Winthrop      64.7   33.9   17.5    7.9\n3S Gardner Webb  82.9   39.5   15.8    7.8\n5S Char Southern 77.7   27.1   13.5    6.7\n5N Liberty       35.3   13.3    4.9    1.5\n4N Campbell      22.3    3.0    0.7    0.1\n6N Longwood      17.1    2.7    0.3    0.06\n6S Presbyterian  13.1    1.5    0.2    0.02\n\n<\/pre>\n<p>There was truly no dominant team in the Big South this season as six squads finished with between ten and 12 conference wins. Throw in bad-luck Charleston Southern, who finished 6-10, and you have seven teams with virtually identical ratings, and all are capable of winning the automatic bid. <\/p>\n<p>Of course, the structure of the bracket has some impact on the probabilities, and the first-round byes are big here. Even bigger is that the games are played in Coastal Carolina\u2019s building. To the owner of the shiny new arena go the spoils of hosting the tournament. It\u2019s not entirely fair, but I don\u2019t blame anyone for wanting to spend a week in March near the beach. <\/p>\n<p>The Big South tourney will feature lots of points. It ranks fifth among conferences in possessions per game and third in points per possession. There are some competent offenses and a lot of bad defenses in this league. No team allowed fewer than a point per possession in conference play. And if you haven\u2019t seen High Point\u2019s John Brown, then you are missing out on one of the more dynamic players in the country. (I\u2019ll confess I haven\u2019t seen him either.) Yes, he feasts on bad defenses every night, but he does everything well on both ends of the floor, except possibly shoot the three-ball, but I bet he could do that if he wanted. <\/p>\n","protected":false},"excerpt":{"rendered":"<p>I\u2019m using my ratings and Bill James\u2019 log5 formula to estimate the chances of each participating team advancing to a particular round of its conference tournament. Big South Location: Coastal Carolina Dates: March 5, 7-9 Chance of bid thief: zero Current kPOY: John Brown, High Point Projections: Qtrs Semis Final Champ 1S C. Carolina 100 [&hellip;]<\/p>\n","protected":false},"author":1,"featured_media":0,"comment_status":"closed","ping_status":"closed","sticky":false,"template":"","format":"standard","meta":[],"categories":[1],"tags":[],"_links":{"self":[{"href":"https:\/\/kenpom.com\/blog\/wp-json\/wp\/v2\/posts\/214"}],"collection":[{"href":"https:\/\/kenpom.com\/blog\/wp-json\/wp\/v2\/posts"}],"about":[{"href":"https:\/\/kenpom.com\/blog\/wp-json\/wp\/v2\/types\/post"}],"author":[{"embeddable":true,"href":"https:\/\/kenpom.com\/blog\/wp-json\/wp\/v2\/users\/1"}],"replies":[{"embeddable":true,"href":"https:\/\/kenpom.com\/blog\/wp-json\/wp\/v2\/comments?post=214"}],"version-history":[{"count":0,"href":"https:\/\/kenpom.com\/blog\/wp-json\/wp\/v2\/posts\/214\/revisions"}],"wp:attachment":[{"href":"https:\/\/kenpom.com\/blog\/wp-json\/wp\/v2\/media?parent=214"}],"wp:term":[{"taxonomy":"category","embeddable":true,"href":"https:\/\/kenpom.com\/blog\/wp-json\/wp\/v2\/categories?post=214"},{"taxonomy":"post_tag","embeddable":true,"href":"https:\/\/kenpom.com\/blog\/wp-json\/wp\/v2\/tags?post=214"}],"curies":[{"name":"wp","href":"https:\/\/api.w.org\/{rel}","templated":true}]}}