{"id":212,"date":"2014-03-04T13:49:27","date_gmt":"2014-03-04T19:49:27","guid":{"rendered":"http:\/\/67.227.157.91\/~kenpom\/wp_blog\/nec-log5-2\/"},"modified":"2014-03-04T13:49:27","modified_gmt":"2014-03-04T19:49:27","slug":"nec-log5-2","status":"publish","type":"post","link":"https:\/\/kenpom.com\/blog\/nec-log5-2\/","title":{"rendered":"NEC log5"},"content":{"rendered":"<p><em>I\u2019m using my ratings and Bill James\u2019 log5 formula to estimate the chances of each participating team advancing to a particular round of its conference tournament.<\/em><\/p>\n<p><strong>Northeast Conference<\/strong><br \/>\n<strong>Location:<\/strong> All games at higher seed<br \/>\n<strong>Dates:<\/strong> March 5, 8, 11<br \/>\n<strong>Chance of bid thief:<\/strong> zero<br \/>\n<strong>Current kPOY:<\/strong> Karvel Anderson, Robert Morris<\/p>\n<p><strong>Projections:<\/strong><\/p>\n<pre>\n                Semis  Final  Champ\n1 Robert Morris  85.5   67.3   48.7\n2 Wagner         87.7   62.3   27.2\n3 Bryant         88.3   36.5   14.7\n4 Mt. St. Mary's 61.8   17.0    4.9\n5 St. Francis NY 38.2   11.6    3.7\n8 F. Dickinson   14.5    2.4    0.4\n7 Central Conn   12.3    1.5    0.2\n6 St. Francis PA 11.7    1.3    0.1 \n\n<\/pre>\n<p>No conference is more serious about rewarding the regular season than the NEC. The conference puts all tournament games on the home floor of the higher seed, while adding the extra twist of reseeding the semi-finals if there happens to be a first-round upset. So the bottom half of the bracket has to overcome some serious obstacles to win this thing. <\/p>\n<p>The NEC has an 11-year run of being seeded 15th or 16th in the NCAA tournament and barring major chaos across the country, this season\u2019s champ will be on the 16-line a week from Sunday. That got me to thinking about the 16-over-1 scenarios for this season. What if Wichita State was the first one-seed to lose to a 16? That could be one of the most awkward moments in tournament history. Well, the winner of this tournament could be the team that\u2019s put in a position to do that. <\/p>\n<p>Wednesday will likely be the last game for Fairleigh Dickinson\u2019s Sidney Sanders, Jr. He is not going to be famous, but he was one of the most improved players in the country this season, if not <em>the<\/em> most improved. He went from an offensive rating of 86 on a usage of 17% as a junior to 109\/34 as a senior. He was the main reason why the Knights surprisingly beat Rutgers and Seton Hall in consecutive games early in the season, then beat out two other teams for the NEC&#8217;s eight-seed and the right to play an extra game this week.<\/p>\n","protected":false},"excerpt":{"rendered":"<p>I\u2019m using my ratings and Bill James\u2019 log5 formula to estimate the chances of each participating team advancing to a particular round of its conference tournament. Northeast Conference Location: All games at higher seed Dates: March 5, 8, 11 Chance of bid thief: zero Current kPOY: Karvel Anderson, Robert Morris Projections: Semis Final Champ 1 [&hellip;]<\/p>\n","protected":false},"author":1,"featured_media":0,"comment_status":"closed","ping_status":"closed","sticky":false,"template":"","format":"standard","meta":[],"categories":[1],"tags":[],"_links":{"self":[{"href":"https:\/\/kenpom.com\/blog\/wp-json\/wp\/v2\/posts\/212"}],"collection":[{"href":"https:\/\/kenpom.com\/blog\/wp-json\/wp\/v2\/posts"}],"about":[{"href":"https:\/\/kenpom.com\/blog\/wp-json\/wp\/v2\/types\/post"}],"author":[{"embeddable":true,"href":"https:\/\/kenpom.com\/blog\/wp-json\/wp\/v2\/users\/1"}],"replies":[{"embeddable":true,"href":"https:\/\/kenpom.com\/blog\/wp-json\/wp\/v2\/comments?post=212"}],"version-history":[{"count":0,"href":"https:\/\/kenpom.com\/blog\/wp-json\/wp\/v2\/posts\/212\/revisions"}],"wp:attachment":[{"href":"https:\/\/kenpom.com\/blog\/wp-json\/wp\/v2\/media?parent=212"}],"wp:term":[{"taxonomy":"category","embeddable":true,"href":"https:\/\/kenpom.com\/blog\/wp-json\/wp\/v2\/categories?post=212"},{"taxonomy":"post_tag","embeddable":true,"href":"https:\/\/kenpom.com\/blog\/wp-json\/wp\/v2\/tags?post=212"}],"curies":[{"name":"wp","href":"https:\/\/api.w.org\/{rel}","templated":true}]}}