{"id":211,"date":"2014-03-05T08:22:34","date_gmt":"2014-03-05T14:22:34","guid":{"rendered":"http:\/\/67.227.157.91\/~kenpom\/wp_blog\/mvc-log5-2\/"},"modified":"2014-03-05T08:22:34","modified_gmt":"2014-03-05T14:22:34","slug":"mvc-log5-2","status":"publish","type":"post","link":"https:\/\/kenpom.com\/blog\/mvc-log5-2\/","title":{"rendered":"MVC log5"},"content":{"rendered":"<p><em>I\u2019m using my ratings and Bill James\u2019 log5 formula to estimate the chances of each participating team advancing to a particular round of its conference tournament.<\/em><\/p>\n<p><strong><a href=\u201dhttp:\/\/kenpom.com\/conf.php?c=MVC\u201d>Missouri Valley Conference<\/a><\/strong><br \/>\n<strong>Location:<\/strong> Saint Louis (Scottrade Center)<br \/>\n<strong>Dates:<\/strong> March 6-9<br \/>\n<strong>Chance of bid thief:<\/strong> 22%<br \/>\n<strong>Current kPOY:<\/strong> Cleanthony Early, Wichita State<\/p>\n<p><strong>Projections:<\/strong><\/p>\n<pre>                Qtrs  Semis  Final  Champ\n 1 Wichita St.   100   95.2   87.4   78.0\n 3 Northern Iowa 100   67.5   41.2    8.1\n 2 Indiana St.   100   74.5   37.7    6.4\n 5 Illinois St.  100   53.5    6.1    2.7\n 4 Missouri St.  100   46.5    4.7    2.0\n 6 S. Illinois   100   32.5   14.3    1.7\n 7 Bradley      58.2   16.3    4.8    0.4\n 8 Drake        55.6    2.9    1.1    0.4\n 9 Evansville   44.4    1.9    0.6    0.2\n10 Loyola Chi   41.8    9.2    2.1    0.1\n\n<\/pre>\n<p>For most of the country, the reason to keep tabs on this event is to see whether Wichita State can get to 34-0. But keep in mind a Shockers\u2019 loss will close the door on somebody\u2019s at-large chances, and that\u2019s a very real possibility. Or you might think it\u2019s not and I\u2019m understating Wichita State&#8217;s chances of winning at Arch Madness. There are two reasons why this might be true\u2026<\/p>\n<p>1) Wichita State has more skill than the typical #6 team in beating lower-level teams.<br \/>\n2) Wichita State is better than the #6 team in the country.<\/p>\n<p>But there are also reasons why I might be overstating their chances, namely\u2026<\/p>\n<p>1) Wichita State overachieved during the regular season.<br \/>\n2) Wichita State\u2019s opponents underachieved when they played the Shockers. <\/p>\n<p>These are all complicated issues, and as you might imagine, I don\u2019t trust anyone who claims to have any certainty about the answers. Forecasting stuff is hard.<\/p>\n<p>If another team deserves mention in this space, it\u2019s Northern Iowa, who actually led the conference in offensive efficiency in conference play thanks to some great three-point shooting. The Panthers made 40 percent of their attempts while taking 45 percent of their shots from beyond the arc.<\/p>\n","protected":false},"excerpt":{"rendered":"<p>I\u2019m using my ratings and Bill James\u2019 log5 formula to estimate the chances of each participating team advancing to a particular round of its conference tournament. Missouri Valley Conference Location: Saint Louis (Scottrade Center) Dates: March 6-9 Chance of bid thief: 22% Current kPOY: Cleanthony Early, Wichita State Projections: Qtrs Semis Final Champ 1 Wichita [&hellip;]<\/p>\n","protected":false},"author":1,"featured_media":0,"comment_status":"closed","ping_status":"closed","sticky":false,"template":"","format":"standard","meta":[],"categories":[1],"tags":[],"_links":{"self":[{"href":"https:\/\/kenpom.com\/blog\/wp-json\/wp\/v2\/posts\/211"}],"collection":[{"href":"https:\/\/kenpom.com\/blog\/wp-json\/wp\/v2\/posts"}],"about":[{"href":"https:\/\/kenpom.com\/blog\/wp-json\/wp\/v2\/types\/post"}],"author":[{"embeddable":true,"href":"https:\/\/kenpom.com\/blog\/wp-json\/wp\/v2\/users\/1"}],"replies":[{"embeddable":true,"href":"https:\/\/kenpom.com\/blog\/wp-json\/wp\/v2\/comments?post=211"}],"version-history":[{"count":0,"href":"https:\/\/kenpom.com\/blog\/wp-json\/wp\/v2\/posts\/211\/revisions"}],"wp:attachment":[{"href":"https:\/\/kenpom.com\/blog\/wp-json\/wp\/v2\/media?parent=211"}],"wp:term":[{"taxonomy":"category","embeddable":true,"href":"https:\/\/kenpom.com\/blog\/wp-json\/wp\/v2\/categories?post=211"},{"taxonomy":"post_tag","embeddable":true,"href":"https:\/\/kenpom.com\/blog\/wp-json\/wp\/v2\/tags?post=211"}],"curies":[{"name":"wp","href":"https:\/\/api.w.org\/{rel}","templated":true}]}}