{"id":207,"date":"2014-03-06T08:00:57","date_gmt":"2014-03-06T14:00:57","guid":{"rendered":"http:\/\/67.227.157.91\/~kenpom\/wp_blog\/caa-log5-2\/"},"modified":"2014-03-06T08:00:57","modified_gmt":"2014-03-06T14:00:57","slug":"caa-log5-2","status":"publish","type":"post","link":"https:\/\/kenpom.com\/blog\/caa-log5-2\/","title":{"rendered":"CAA log5"},"content":{"rendered":"<p><em>I\u2019m using my ratings and Bill James\u2019 log5 formula to estimate the chances of each participating team advancing to a particular round of its conference tournament.<\/em><\/p>\n<p><strong><a href=\"http:\/\/kenpom.com\/conf.php?c=CAA\">Colonial Athletic Association<\/a><\/strong><br \/>\n<strong>Location:<\/strong> Baltimore (Baltimore Arena)<br \/>\n<strong>Dates:<\/strong> March 7-10<br \/>\n<strong>Chance of bid thief:<\/strong> zero<br \/>\n<strong>Current kPOY:<\/strong> Jerrelle Benimon, Towson<\/p>\n<p><strong>Projections:<\/strong><\/p>\n<pre>\n                 Qtrs  Semis  Final  Champ\n2 Towson          100   83.4   60.4   33.5\n1 Delaware        100   82.0   49.8   30.2\n4 Drexel          100   68.1   34.7   17.8\n3 William &amp; Mary  100   53.2   18.7    7.1\n6 Charleston      100   46.8   15.2    5.3\n5 Northeastern    100   31.9   10.9    3.7\n7 James Madison   100   16.6    5.7    1.4\n8 Hofstra        51.2    9.3    2.4    0.6\n9 UNC Wilmington 48.8    8.5    2.2    0.5\n\n<\/pre>\n<p>After spending 22 of the last 23 years in Richmond, the CAA tournament moves north to Baltimore this season. The semi-home status I bequeath on Towson is enough to give the Tigers a slight edge over regular-season champ Delaware. Though the ratings may not be fully appreciative of the recent return of the Blue Hens\u2019 do-it-all guard Jarvis Threatt. <\/p>\n<p>Meanwhile, Hofstra is asking <a href=\"http:\/\/www.newsday.com\/sports\/college\/hofstra\/hofstra-s-motto-for-caa-tournament-is-why-not-us-1.7294028\">\u2018Why not us?\u2019<\/a> Well, if you must know, it\u2019s because you haven\u2019t played very well this season, and in particular your defense is not very good. Teams with your performance during the regular season almost never win their conference tournament. Also you\u2019d have to win one more game than everybody else to win the tournament. So that\u2019s why not.<\/p>\n<p>But why not William &amp; Mary? Tony Shaver\u2019s three-happy offense has been as effective as ever this season, ranking 48th in the nation in adjusted offensive efficiency. The Tribe has a 7% chance of getting to the NCAA tournament for the first time since the school was founded in 1693. That\u2019s a long dry spell!<\/p>\n","protected":false},"excerpt":{"rendered":"<p>I\u2019m using my ratings and Bill James\u2019 log5 formula to estimate the chances of each participating team advancing to a particular round of its conference tournament. Colonial Athletic Association Location: Baltimore (Baltimore Arena) Dates: March 7-10 Chance of bid thief: zero Current kPOY: Jerrelle Benimon, Towson Projections: Qtrs Semis Final Champ 2 Towson 100 83.4 [&hellip;]<\/p>\n","protected":false},"author":1,"featured_media":0,"comment_status":"closed","ping_status":"closed","sticky":false,"template":"","format":"standard","meta":[],"categories":[1],"tags":[],"_links":{"self":[{"href":"https:\/\/kenpom.com\/blog\/wp-json\/wp\/v2\/posts\/207"}],"collection":[{"href":"https:\/\/kenpom.com\/blog\/wp-json\/wp\/v2\/posts"}],"about":[{"href":"https:\/\/kenpom.com\/blog\/wp-json\/wp\/v2\/types\/post"}],"author":[{"embeddable":true,"href":"https:\/\/kenpom.com\/blog\/wp-json\/wp\/v2\/users\/1"}],"replies":[{"embeddable":true,"href":"https:\/\/kenpom.com\/blog\/wp-json\/wp\/v2\/comments?post=207"}],"version-history":[{"count":0,"href":"https:\/\/kenpom.com\/blog\/wp-json\/wp\/v2\/posts\/207\/revisions"}],"wp:attachment":[{"href":"https:\/\/kenpom.com\/blog\/wp-json\/wp\/v2\/media?parent=207"}],"wp:term":[{"taxonomy":"category","embeddable":true,"href":"https:\/\/kenpom.com\/blog\/wp-json\/wp\/v2\/categories?post=207"},{"taxonomy":"post_tag","embeddable":true,"href":"https:\/\/kenpom.com\/blog\/wp-json\/wp\/v2\/tags?post=207"}],"curies":[{"name":"wp","href":"https:\/\/api.w.org\/{rel}","templated":true}]}}