{"id":205,"date":"2014-03-07T10:27:54","date_gmt":"2014-03-07T16:27:54","guid":{"rendered":"http:\/\/67.227.157.91\/~kenpom\/wp_blog\/america-east-log5-2\/"},"modified":"2014-03-07T10:27:54","modified_gmt":"2014-03-07T16:27:54","slug":"america-east-log5-2","status":"publish","type":"post","link":"https:\/\/kenpom.com\/blog\/america-east-log5-2\/","title":{"rendered":"America East log5"},"content":{"rendered":"<p><em>I\u2019m using my ratings and Bill James\u2019 log5 formula to estimate the chances of each participating team advancing to a particular round of its conference tournament.<\/em><\/p>\n<p><strong><a href=\"http:\/\/kenpom.com\/conf.php?c=AE\">America East<\/a><\/strong><br \/>\n<strong>Location:<\/strong> Quarters and semis at Albany, final at higher seed<br \/>\n<strong>Dates:<\/strong> March 8, 9, 15<br \/>\n<strong>Chance of bid thief:<\/strong> zero<br \/>\n<strong>Current kPOY:<\/strong> Clancy Rugg, Vermont<\/p>\n<p><strong>Projections:<\/strong><\/p>\n<pre>\n               Semis  Final  Champ\n1 Vermont       95.6   72.3   64.0\n2 Stony Brook   89.2   63.4   19.9\n4 Albany        87.1   26.1    8.7\n3 Hartford      77.6   30.0    6.8\n6 Binghamton    22.4    3.9    0.2\n5 UMBC          12.9    1.0    0.1\n7 Maine         10.8    2.7    0.1\n8 New Hampshire  4.4    0.7    0.07\n\n<\/pre>\n<p>Vermont took Duke to the limit in Cameron early in the season, shredding the Duke defense for 1.39 points per possession, the most the Blue Devils have allowed since I\u2019ve been tracking this stuff. That was the warmup act for their romp through America East. They did lose a game, on the road to Stony Brook, when the Seawolves built a 17-point lead and then held on for dear life to win by three. The Catamounts dominated their other 15 conference games, though, and finished with an average scoring margin of +20.88 in America East games. <\/p>\n<p>The gold standard for conference domination over the past decade is held by the 2011 Belmont team which outscored its Atlantic Sun opponents by an average of 20.90 points. The Bruins\u2019 conference season was four games longer than Vermont\u2019s, so they deserve a little more credit for their work, but UVM has been killing it. In fact, on a per-possession basis, Vermont\u2019s work was more dominant than Belmont\u2019s. The average trip down the court netted the Catamounts 0.331 points per possession compared to 0.308 for \u201811 Belmont. <\/p>\n<p>Vermont is not a prohibitive favorite in the AE tourney, though. They drew the short straw with a potential road game against Albany in the semis. This was the undoing of top-seeded Stony Brook in last season\u2019s event. And a potential title matchup with the Seawolves should be more competitive than the typical Vermont game this season.<\/p>\n","protected":false},"excerpt":{"rendered":"<p>I\u2019m using my ratings and Bill James\u2019 log5 formula to estimate the chances of each participating team advancing to a particular round of its conference tournament. America East Location: Quarters and semis at Albany, final at higher seed Dates: March 8, 9, 15 Chance of bid thief: zero Current kPOY: Clancy Rugg, Vermont Projections: Semis [&hellip;]<\/p>\n","protected":false},"author":1,"featured_media":0,"comment_status":"closed","ping_status":"closed","sticky":false,"template":"","format":"standard","meta":[],"categories":[1],"tags":[],"_links":{"self":[{"href":"https:\/\/kenpom.com\/blog\/wp-json\/wp\/v2\/posts\/205"}],"collection":[{"href":"https:\/\/kenpom.com\/blog\/wp-json\/wp\/v2\/posts"}],"about":[{"href":"https:\/\/kenpom.com\/blog\/wp-json\/wp\/v2\/types\/post"}],"author":[{"embeddable":true,"href":"https:\/\/kenpom.com\/blog\/wp-json\/wp\/v2\/users\/1"}],"replies":[{"embeddable":true,"href":"https:\/\/kenpom.com\/blog\/wp-json\/wp\/v2\/comments?post=205"}],"version-history":[{"count":0,"href":"https:\/\/kenpom.com\/blog\/wp-json\/wp\/v2\/posts\/205\/revisions"}],"wp:attachment":[{"href":"https:\/\/kenpom.com\/blog\/wp-json\/wp\/v2\/media?parent=205"}],"wp:term":[{"taxonomy":"category","embeddable":true,"href":"https:\/\/kenpom.com\/blog\/wp-json\/wp\/v2\/categories?post=205"},{"taxonomy":"post_tag","embeddable":true,"href":"https:\/\/kenpom.com\/blog\/wp-json\/wp\/v2\/tags?post=205"}],"curies":[{"name":"wp","href":"https:\/\/api.w.org\/{rel}","templated":true}]}}