{"id":204,"date":"2014-03-08T15:06:49","date_gmt":"2014-03-08T21:06:49","guid":{"rendered":"http:\/\/67.227.157.91\/~kenpom\/wp_blog\/meac-log5-2\/"},"modified":"2014-03-08T15:06:49","modified_gmt":"2014-03-08T21:06:49","slug":"meac-log5-2","status":"publish","type":"post","link":"https:\/\/kenpom.com\/blog\/meac-log5-2\/","title":{"rendered":"MEAC log5"},"content":{"rendered":"<p><em>I\u2019m using my ratings and Bill James\u2019 log5 formula to estimate the chances of each participating team advancing to a particular round of its conference tournament.<\/em><\/p>\n<p><strong><a href=\"http:\/\/kenpom.com\/conf.php?c=MEAC\">Mid-Eastern Athletic Conference<\/a><\/strong><br \/>\n<strong>Location:<\/strong> Norfolk, Va. (Norfolk Scope)<br \/>\n<strong>Dates:<\/strong> March 10-15<br \/>\n<strong>Chance of bid thief:<\/strong> zero<br \/>\n<strong>Current kPOY:<\/strong> Jeremy Ingram, N.C. Central<\/p>\n<p><strong>Projections:<\/strong><\/p>\n<pre>\n                  Qtrs  Semis  Final  Champ\n 1 N.C. Central    100   94.3   76.4   57.9\n 2 Hampton         100   80.9   54.5   20.1\n 3 Morgan St.      100   75.9   32.6    9.1\n 4 Norfolk St.    84.3   57.5   15.4    8.3\n 5 Savannah St.   77.3   33.2    6.2    2.2\n 7 Coppin St.     68.5   15.4    5.9    1.0\n 6 Florida A&amp;M    57.4   15.2    4.3    0.7\n11 Delaware St.   42.6    9.0    2.1    0.3\n 8 Howard         51.9    3.1    0.7    0.1\n 9 N.C. A&amp;T       48.1    2.6    0.6    0.09\n10 Beth. Cookman  31.5    3.7    0.7    0.06\n13 UMES           15.7    4.8    0.4    0.06\n12 S. Carolina St 22.7    4.5    0.3    0.05\n\n<\/pre>\n<p>N.C. Central may be the best MEAC team ever. According to College Basketball Reference\u2019s SRS, the only other teams with a legitimate case are <a href=\"http:\/\/www.sports-reference.com\/cbb\/schools\/north-carolina-at\/1988-schedule.html\">\u201888 North Carolina A&amp;T<\/a>, and the <a href=\"http:\/\/www.sports-reference.com\/cbb\/schools\/coppin-state\/1991-schedule.html\">\u201891<\/a> and <a href=\"http:\/\/www.sports-reference.com\/cbb\/schools\/coppin-state\/1994-schedule.html\">\u201894 Coppin State<\/a> teams. And two of those teams lost in the MEAC tourney, so Central beware. <\/p>\n<p>Central\u2019s best work was an overtime win at N.C. State in November. They lost their conference opener to Florida A&amp;M, but closed the season on a 17-game winning streak. For fans of a mid-major school with a coaching vacancy this March, here\u2019s a prediction: The coach your school hires is almost surely going to have a worse resum&eacute; than LeVelle Moton does. <\/p>\n<p>For 16-over-1 purposes, it\u2019s pretty important that the Eagles close the deal in Norfolk. It won\u2019t be a walkover, though. Norfolk State and Hampton get proximity bonuses and neither is a pushover anyway. Central played each team once (the game against Hampton, was oddly a non-conference game) and won both. <\/p>\n","protected":false},"excerpt":{"rendered":"<p>I\u2019m using my ratings and Bill James\u2019 log5 formula to estimate the chances of each participating team advancing to a particular round of its conference tournament. Mid-Eastern Athletic Conference Location: Norfolk, Va. (Norfolk Scope) Dates: March 10-15 Chance of bid thief: zero Current kPOY: Jeremy Ingram, N.C. Central Projections: Qtrs Semis Final Champ 1 N.C. [&hellip;]<\/p>\n","protected":false},"author":1,"featured_media":0,"comment_status":"closed","ping_status":"closed","sticky":false,"template":"","format":"standard","meta":[],"categories":[1],"tags":[],"_links":{"self":[{"href":"https:\/\/kenpom.com\/blog\/wp-json\/wp\/v2\/posts\/204"}],"collection":[{"href":"https:\/\/kenpom.com\/blog\/wp-json\/wp\/v2\/posts"}],"about":[{"href":"https:\/\/kenpom.com\/blog\/wp-json\/wp\/v2\/types\/post"}],"author":[{"embeddable":true,"href":"https:\/\/kenpom.com\/blog\/wp-json\/wp\/v2\/users\/1"}],"replies":[{"embeddable":true,"href":"https:\/\/kenpom.com\/blog\/wp-json\/wp\/v2\/comments?post=204"}],"version-history":[{"count":0,"href":"https:\/\/kenpom.com\/blog\/wp-json\/wp\/v2\/posts\/204\/revisions"}],"wp:attachment":[{"href":"https:\/\/kenpom.com\/blog\/wp-json\/wp\/v2\/media?parent=204"}],"wp:term":[{"taxonomy":"category","embeddable":true,"href":"https:\/\/kenpom.com\/blog\/wp-json\/wp\/v2\/categories?post=204"},{"taxonomy":"post_tag","embeddable":true,"href":"https:\/\/kenpom.com\/blog\/wp-json\/wp\/v2\/tags?post=204"}],"curies":[{"name":"wp","href":"https:\/\/api.w.org\/{rel}","templated":true}]}}