{"id":203,"date":"2014-03-09T10:56:26","date_gmt":"2014-03-09T16:56:26","guid":{"rendered":"http:\/\/67.227.157.91\/~kenpom\/wp_blog\/conference-usa-log5-2\/"},"modified":"2014-03-09T10:56:26","modified_gmt":"2014-03-09T16:56:26","slug":"conference-usa-log5-2","status":"publish","type":"post","link":"https:\/\/kenpom.com\/blog\/conference-usa-log5-2\/","title":{"rendered":"Conference USA log5"},"content":{"rendered":"<p><em>I\u2019m using my ratings and Bill James\u2019 log5 formula to estimate the chances of each participating team advancing to a particular round of its conference tournament.<\/em><\/p>\n<p><strong><a href=\"http:\/\/kenpom.com\/conf.php?c=CUSA\">Conference USA<\/a><\/strong><br \/>\n<strong>Location:<\/strong> UTEP<br \/>\n<strong>Dates:<\/strong> March 11-15<br \/>\n<strong>Chance of bid thief:<\/strong> zero<br \/>\n<strong>Current kPOY:<\/strong> Shawn Jones, Middle Tennessee<\/p>\n<p><strong>Projections:<\/strong><\/p>\n<pre>\n                  Rd1   Qtrs  Semis  Final  Champ\n 1 La. Tech       100    100   80.9   43.6   29.2\n 5 UTEP           100   90.7   52.7   29.6   20.0\n 2 Tulsa          100    100   83.9   46.9   17.8\n 3 Middle Tenn.   100    100   77.6   43.0   16.4\n 4 Southern Miss  100    100   46.0   22.4   13.5\n 8 UAB            100   57.8   12.2    2.9    1.1\n 6 Old Dominion   100   60.8   15.4    4.8    0.9\n10 North Texas   75.0   49.5   10.4    2.8    0.4\n 9 Charlotte      100   42.2    6.9    1.3    0.4\n11 Fla. Atlantic 50.9   20.2    3.7    0.9    0.1\n14 Marshall      49.1   19.0    3.3    0.8    0.09\n 7 Tulane         100   40.6    4.9    0.8    0.07\n12 East Carolina 71.0    7.9    1.2    0.2    0.04\n15 Rice          25.0    9.9    0.8    0.09   0.006\n13 UTSA          29.0    1.4    0.09   0.007  0.0007\n\n<\/pre>\n<p>The <a href=\"http:\/\/kenpom.com\/blog\/southern-miss-tops-2013-conference-usa-preseason-poll\">preseason Conference USA poll<\/a> held up very well. There weren&#8217;t many surprises in the league. Old Dominion was picked 14th and finished 6th, so I guess that qualifies. But sixth in this conference means \u201cbest of the rest\u201d as the top five teams put some separation between them and the rest of the league. <\/p>\n<p>Four teams finished in a tie for second in the league standings. UTEP is the odd team out in terms of getting a bye to the quarterfinals, but that disadvantage is offset by the fact that they host the tournament. In fact, this gives me a good idea for a fair tiebreaker: You host the tournament, you are automatically seeded below other tied teams. (Actually, four teams finished in a tie for first and UTEP wasn&#8217;t involved. My wacky tiebreaker thought still stands, though.)<\/p>\n<p>Of course, the Haskins Center was the site of the biggest upset recorded in the land this season, <a href=\"http:\/\/kenpom.com\/box.php?g=1750\">New Orleans\u2019 71-69 win at UTEP<\/a>, one of five home losses the Miners suffered this season. So while there&#8217;s a home court advantage, the team playing there is far from unbeatable. Louisiana Tech is the favorite here by virtue of a 13-3 conference record. In a 16-team conference, you don\u2019t learn much from a 16-game schedule, and this tournament is better described as being up for grabs.<\/p>\n","protected":false},"excerpt":{"rendered":"<p>I\u2019m using my ratings and Bill James\u2019 log5 formula to estimate the chances of each participating team advancing to a particular round of its conference tournament. Conference USA Location: UTEP Dates: March 11-15 Chance of bid thief: zero Current kPOY: Shawn Jones, Middle Tennessee Projections: Rd1 Qtrs Semis Final Champ 1 La. Tech 100 100 [&hellip;]<\/p>\n","protected":false},"author":1,"featured_media":0,"comment_status":"closed","ping_status":"closed","sticky":false,"template":"","format":"standard","meta":[],"categories":[1],"tags":[],"_links":{"self":[{"href":"https:\/\/kenpom.com\/blog\/wp-json\/wp\/v2\/posts\/203"}],"collection":[{"href":"https:\/\/kenpom.com\/blog\/wp-json\/wp\/v2\/posts"}],"about":[{"href":"https:\/\/kenpom.com\/blog\/wp-json\/wp\/v2\/types\/post"}],"author":[{"embeddable":true,"href":"https:\/\/kenpom.com\/blog\/wp-json\/wp\/v2\/users\/1"}],"replies":[{"embeddable":true,"href":"https:\/\/kenpom.com\/blog\/wp-json\/wp\/v2\/comments?post=203"}],"version-history":[{"count":0,"href":"https:\/\/kenpom.com\/blog\/wp-json\/wp\/v2\/posts\/203\/revisions"}],"wp:attachment":[{"href":"https:\/\/kenpom.com\/blog\/wp-json\/wp\/v2\/media?parent=203"}],"wp:term":[{"taxonomy":"category","embeddable":true,"href":"https:\/\/kenpom.com\/blog\/wp-json\/wp\/v2\/categories?post=203"},{"taxonomy":"post_tag","embeddable":true,"href":"https:\/\/kenpom.com\/blog\/wp-json\/wp\/v2\/tags?post=203"}],"curies":[{"name":"wp","href":"https:\/\/api.w.org\/{rel}","templated":true}]}}