{"id":202,"date":"2014-03-09T14:51:57","date_gmt":"2014-03-09T20:51:57","guid":{"rendered":"http:\/\/67.227.157.91\/~kenpom\/wp_blog\/mac-log5-2\/"},"modified":"2014-03-09T14:51:57","modified_gmt":"2014-03-09T20:51:57","slug":"mac-log5-2","status":"publish","type":"post","link":"https:\/\/kenpom.com\/blog\/mac-log5-2\/","title":{"rendered":"MAC log5"},"content":{"rendered":"<p><em>I\u2019m using my ratings and Bill James\u2019 log5 formula to estimate the chances of each participating team advancing to a particular round of its conference tournament.<\/em><\/p>\n<p><strong><a href=\"http:\/\/kenpom.com\/conf.php?c=MAC\">Mid-American Conference<\/a><\/strong><br \/>\n<strong>Location:<\/strong> First round at campus sites, remainder at Cleveland (Quicken Loans Arena)<br \/>\n<strong>Dates:<\/strong> March 10, 12-15<br \/>\n<strong>Chance of bid thief:<\/strong> zero<br \/>\n<strong>Current kPOY:<\/strong> Javon McCrea, Buffalo<\/p>\n<p><strong>Projections:<\/strong><\/p>\n<pre>                  Rd1   Qtrs  Semis  Final  Champ\n 2 Toledo         100    100   100    50.4   28.9\n 1 W. Michigan    100    100   100    51.3   21.9\n 3 Buffalo        100    100   63.8   34.2   20.9\n 4 Akron          100    100   52.6   25.7   10.7\n 5 Ohio          92.7   64.1   35.1   18.8    8.6\n 6 E. Michigan   91.1   64.3   27.9   13.1    7.2\n 9 Kent St.      40.3   15.0    5.8    2.1    0.7\n 7 N. Illinois   68.0   22.9    5.7    1.6    0.5\n 8 Miami OH      59.7   19.1    6.2    2.0    0.5\n10 Bowling Green 32.0   10.1    2.3    0.6    0.2\n11 C. Michigan    8.9    2.8    0.3    0.05   0.009\n12 Ball St.       7.3    1.8    0.3    0.04   0.005\n\n<\/pre>\n<p>Toledo is the favorite here and also the league\u2019s most interesting team. They were one of the country\u2019s last remaining unbeatens and made it until February 15 before they scored less than a point per possession in a game. <\/p>\n<p>The reason the Rockets are not the top seed here is that their defense ranked 10th in the MAC in conference play and 262nd nationally. They\u2019ve held one D-I team below .9 PPP all season and that was Bowling Green, whose offense is rated 341st nationally due to repeated performances like that.&nbsp; <\/p>\n<p>The MAC\u2019s super double-stepladder format harshly punishes those outside the top four. So Jim Christian\u2019s Ohio club gets the screw job here. They aren\u2019t substantially different in strength from the top four, but they are forced to play two more games than the four-seed and three more games than the two-seed. <\/p>\n","protected":false},"excerpt":{"rendered":"<p>I\u2019m using my ratings and Bill James\u2019 log5 formula to estimate the chances of each participating team advancing to a particular round of its conference tournament. Mid-American Conference Location: First round at campus sites, remainder at Cleveland (Quicken Loans Arena) Dates: March 10, 12-15 Chance of bid thief: zero Current kPOY: Javon McCrea, Buffalo Projections: [&hellip;]<\/p>\n","protected":false},"author":1,"featured_media":0,"comment_status":"closed","ping_status":"closed","sticky":false,"template":"","format":"standard","meta":[],"categories":[1],"tags":[],"_links":{"self":[{"href":"https:\/\/kenpom.com\/blog\/wp-json\/wp\/v2\/posts\/202"}],"collection":[{"href":"https:\/\/kenpom.com\/blog\/wp-json\/wp\/v2\/posts"}],"about":[{"href":"https:\/\/kenpom.com\/blog\/wp-json\/wp\/v2\/types\/post"}],"author":[{"embeddable":true,"href":"https:\/\/kenpom.com\/blog\/wp-json\/wp\/v2\/users\/1"}],"replies":[{"embeddable":true,"href":"https:\/\/kenpom.com\/blog\/wp-json\/wp\/v2\/comments?post=202"}],"version-history":[{"count":0,"href":"https:\/\/kenpom.com\/blog\/wp-json\/wp\/v2\/posts\/202\/revisions"}],"wp:attachment":[{"href":"https:\/\/kenpom.com\/blog\/wp-json\/wp\/v2\/media?parent=202"}],"wp:term":[{"taxonomy":"category","embeddable":true,"href":"https:\/\/kenpom.com\/blog\/wp-json\/wp\/v2\/categories?post=202"},{"taxonomy":"post_tag","embeddable":true,"href":"https:\/\/kenpom.com\/blog\/wp-json\/wp\/v2\/tags?post=202"}],"curies":[{"name":"wp","href":"https:\/\/api.w.org\/{rel}","templated":true}]}}