{"id":200,"date":"2014-03-10T09:34:53","date_gmt":"2014-03-10T15:34:53","guid":{"rendered":"http:\/\/67.227.157.91\/~kenpom\/wp_blog\/american-log5-2\/"},"modified":"2014-03-10T09:34:53","modified_gmt":"2014-03-10T15:34:53","slug":"american-log5-2","status":"publish","type":"post","link":"https:\/\/kenpom.com\/blog\/american-log5-2\/","title":{"rendered":"American log5"},"content":{"rendered":"<p><em>I\u2019m using my ratings and Bill James\u2019 log5 formula to estimate the chances of each participating team advancing to a particular round of its conference tournament.<\/em><\/p>\n<p><strong><a href=\"http:\/\/kenpom.com\/conf.php?c=Amer\">American Athletic Conference<\/a><\/strong><br \/>\n<strong>Location:<\/strong> Memphis<br \/>\n<strong>Dates:<\/strong> March 12-15<br \/>\n<strong>Chance of bid thief:<\/strong> zero<br \/>\n<strong>Current kPOY:<\/strong> Russ Smith, Louisville<\/p>\n<p><strong>Projections:<\/strong><\/p>\n<pre>              Qtrs  Semis  Final  Champ\n 2 Louisville  100   95.4   73.9   53.9\n 1 Cincinnati  100   88.4   47.9   17.5\n 3 SMU         100   82.5   23.6   11.5\n 5 Memphis     100   54.0   28.2    9.7\n 4 UConn       100   46.0   22.4    7.0\n 6 Houston     100   17.5    1.6    0.3\n 8 Temple     54.5    6.8    1.0    0.09\n 7 Rutgers    55.3    2.8    0.5    0.06\n 9 UCF        45.5    4.8    0.6    0.04\n10 S. Florida 44.7    1.8    0.3    0.03\n\n<\/pre>\n<p>Louisville and Cincinnati finished the season with identical 15-3 records in the inaugural season of the American. Standard tie-breaking procedures did not resolve the deadlock, so the top seed was decided by a coin-flip. I like to talk about theoretical coin-flips deciding so many important things in sports, but this was a real one, complete <a href=\"http:\/\/collegebasketballtalk.nbcsports.com\/2014\/03\/08\/coin-flip-lands-cincinnati-top-seed-in-american-athletic-conference-tournament-video\/\">with Bill Raftery as a witness<\/a>. <\/p>\n<p>Cincinnati head coach Mick Cronin called heads, all the while knowing that tails never fails, and tails would allow the Bearcats to avoid a potential semi-final road game (because the tourney is being played at Memphis\u2019s FedExForum).&nbsp; Alas, the coin came up heads. Or did it? It\u2019s impossible to tell from the grainy video supplied. It doesn\u2019t even pan to the ground. There may not have even been a coin and there\u2019s no way of verifying Mick Cronin was actually the person on the phone. It\u2019s about as legitimate as the moon landing.<\/p>\n<p>The result of this false flag is that Louisville is a slightly bigger favorite than they otherwise would be. Because that is exactly how the American wanted it.<\/p>\n","protected":false},"excerpt":{"rendered":"<p>I\u2019m using my ratings and Bill James\u2019 log5 formula to estimate the chances of each participating team advancing to a particular round of its conference tournament. American Athletic Conference Location: Memphis Dates: March 12-15 Chance of bid thief: zero Current kPOY: Russ Smith, Louisville Projections: Qtrs Semis Final Champ 2 Louisville 100 95.4 73.9 53.9 [&hellip;]<\/p>\n","protected":false},"author":1,"featured_media":0,"comment_status":"closed","ping_status":"closed","sticky":false,"template":"","format":"standard","meta":[],"categories":[1],"tags":[],"_links":{"self":[{"href":"https:\/\/kenpom.com\/blog\/wp-json\/wp\/v2\/posts\/200"}],"collection":[{"href":"https:\/\/kenpom.com\/blog\/wp-json\/wp\/v2\/posts"}],"about":[{"href":"https:\/\/kenpom.com\/blog\/wp-json\/wp\/v2\/types\/post"}],"author":[{"embeddable":true,"href":"https:\/\/kenpom.com\/blog\/wp-json\/wp\/v2\/users\/1"}],"replies":[{"embeddable":true,"href":"https:\/\/kenpom.com\/blog\/wp-json\/wp\/v2\/comments?post=200"}],"version-history":[{"count":0,"href":"https:\/\/kenpom.com\/blog\/wp-json\/wp\/v2\/posts\/200\/revisions"}],"wp:attachment":[{"href":"https:\/\/kenpom.com\/blog\/wp-json\/wp\/v2\/media?parent=200"}],"wp:term":[{"taxonomy":"category","embeddable":true,"href":"https:\/\/kenpom.com\/blog\/wp-json\/wp\/v2\/categories?post=200"},{"taxonomy":"post_tag","embeddable":true,"href":"https:\/\/kenpom.com\/blog\/wp-json\/wp\/v2\/tags?post=200"}],"curies":[{"name":"wp","href":"https:\/\/api.w.org\/{rel}","templated":true}]}}