{"id":195,"date":"2014-03-11T09:33:16","date_gmt":"2014-03-11T15:33:16","guid":{"rendered":"http:\/\/67.227.157.91\/~kenpom\/wp_blog\/pac12-log5-2\/"},"modified":"2014-03-11T09:33:16","modified_gmt":"2014-03-11T15:33:16","slug":"pac12-log5-2","status":"publish","type":"post","link":"https:\/\/kenpom.com\/blog\/pac12-log5-2\/","title":{"rendered":"Pac&#45;12 log5"},"content":{"rendered":"<p><em>I\u2019m using my ratings and Bill James\u2019 log5 formula to estimate the chances of each participating team advancing to a particular round of its conference tournament.<\/em><\/p>\n<p><strong><a href=\"http:\/\/kenpom.com\/conf.php?c=P12\">Pac-12 Conference<\/a><\/strong><br \/>\n<strong>Location:<\/strong> Las Vegas (MGM Grand)<br \/>\n<strong>Dates:<\/strong> March 12-15<br \/>\n<strong>Chance of bid thief:<\/strong> 6 percent<br \/>\n<strong>Current kPOY:<\/strong> Nick Johnson, Arizona<\/p>\n<p><strong>Projections:<\/strong><\/p>\n<pre>\n              Qtrs  Semis  Final  Champ\n 1 Arizona     100   81.0   69.9   54.4\n 2 UCLA        100   54.5   30.5   10.7\n 3 Arizona St. 100   58.2   27.2    8.7\n 7 Oregon     76.5   39.7   23.0    8.4\n 8 Utah       72.1   16.2   10.5    5.3\n 6 Stanford   84.3   39.6   17.3    5.1\n 4 California  100   52.5    9.5    3.4\n 5 Colorado   76.2   41.1    8.4    3.3\n 9 Washington 27.9    2.8    1.2    0.3\n10 Oregon St. 23.5    5.9    1.8    0.3\n12 USC        23.8    6.4    0.5    0.09\n11 Wash. St.  15.7    2.2    0.3    0.02\n\n<\/pre>\n<p>I don\u2019t know if the Pac-12 tournament has ever been highly-anticipated and I\u2019m not sure this one is either, but there are some reasons to monitor the events in Vegas. We\u2019ll get some more data on Arizona, whose offense has been inconsistent in a post-Brandon Ashley world. The worst of the offense has shown up in true road games, so I\u2019m anxious to see what the Wildcats look like on a neutral court against difficult competition. <\/p>\n<p>Oregon has the appearance of being hot, but let\u2019s not forget that during its seven-game winning streak, the Ducks been at home five times. Because of this, their ranking has only risen from 32 to 25 over that time. Still, don\u2019t get carried away with that seven-seed. The Ducks are capable of winning the whole thing with a break here and there. <\/p>\n<p>Finally, Utah is on the opposite end of the RPI spectrum as UMass. Just one of forty-something systems ranks Utah worse than the RPI does (83rd). Hence, just three of some 96 brackets at <a href=\"http:\/\/bracketmatrix.com\">Bracket Matrix<\/a> list Utah in the field. Hopefully someone sees the insanity of relying on a single formula for the objective-data portion of the selection process.<\/p>\n","protected":false},"excerpt":{"rendered":"<p>I\u2019m using my ratings and Bill James\u2019 log5 formula to estimate the chances of each participating team advancing to a particular round of its conference tournament. Pac-12 Conference Location: Las Vegas (MGM Grand) Dates: March 12-15 Chance of bid thief: 6 percent Current kPOY: Nick Johnson, Arizona Projections: Qtrs Semis Final Champ 1 Arizona 100 [&hellip;]<\/p>\n","protected":false},"author":1,"featured_media":0,"comment_status":"closed","ping_status":"closed","sticky":false,"template":"","format":"standard","meta":[],"categories":[1],"tags":[],"_links":{"self":[{"href":"https:\/\/kenpom.com\/blog\/wp-json\/wp\/v2\/posts\/195"}],"collection":[{"href":"https:\/\/kenpom.com\/blog\/wp-json\/wp\/v2\/posts"}],"about":[{"href":"https:\/\/kenpom.com\/blog\/wp-json\/wp\/v2\/types\/post"}],"author":[{"embeddable":true,"href":"https:\/\/kenpom.com\/blog\/wp-json\/wp\/v2\/users\/1"}],"replies":[{"embeddable":true,"href":"https:\/\/kenpom.com\/blog\/wp-json\/wp\/v2\/comments?post=195"}],"version-history":[{"count":0,"href":"https:\/\/kenpom.com\/blog\/wp-json\/wp\/v2\/posts\/195\/revisions"}],"wp:attachment":[{"href":"https:\/\/kenpom.com\/blog\/wp-json\/wp\/v2\/media?parent=195"}],"wp:term":[{"taxonomy":"category","embeddable":true,"href":"https:\/\/kenpom.com\/blog\/wp-json\/wp\/v2\/categories?post=195"},{"taxonomy":"post_tag","embeddable":true,"href":"https:\/\/kenpom.com\/blog\/wp-json\/wp\/v2\/tags?post=195"}],"curies":[{"name":"wp","href":"https:\/\/api.w.org\/{rel}","templated":true}]}}