{"id":193,"date":"2014-03-11T10:42:10","date_gmt":"2014-03-11T16:42:10","guid":{"rendered":"http:\/\/67.227.157.91\/~kenpom\/wp_blog\/big-12-log5-2\/"},"modified":"2014-03-11T10:42:10","modified_gmt":"2014-03-11T16:42:10","slug":"big-12-log5-2","status":"publish","type":"post","link":"https:\/\/kenpom.com\/blog\/big-12-log5-2\/","title":{"rendered":"Big 12 log5"},"content":{"rendered":"<p><em>I\u2019m using my ratings and Bill James\u2019 log5 formula to estimate the chances of each participating team advancing to a particular round of its conference tournament.<\/em><\/p>\n<p><strong><a href=\"http:\/\/kenpom.com\/conf.php?c=B12\">Big 12 Conference<\/a><\/strong><br \/>\n<strong>Location:<\/strong> Kansas City (Sprint Center)<br \/>\n<strong>Dates:<\/strong> March 12-15<br \/>\n<strong>Chance of bid thief:<\/strong> 4 percent<br \/>\n<strong>Current kPOY:<\/strong> Andrew Wiggins, Kansas<\/p>\n<p><strong>Projections:<\/strong><\/p>\n<pre>\n              Qtrs  Semis  Final  Champ\n 1 Kansas      100   74.2   56.3   43.0\n 2 Oklahoma    100   56.7   34.6   13.2\n 4 Iowa St.    100   58.1   18.8   10.2\n 7 Baylor     91.3   42.7   24.7    8.7\n 3 Texas       100   57.3   25.1    7.9\n 8 Okla. St.  73.6   22.2   12.8    7.5\n 5 Kansas St.  100   41.9   10.9    5.0\n 6 W. Virginia 100   42.7   15.6    4.0\n 9 Texas Tech 26.4    3.5    1.2    0.4\n10 TCU         8.7    0.7    0.08   0.004\n\n<\/pre>\n<p>The absence of Joel Embiid is not well accounted for in Kansas\u2019s rating, so the Jayhawks\u2019 chances are a bit overstated. (Future generations will look back on the <a href=\"http:\/\/www.big12sports.com\/ViewArticle.dbml?DB_LANG=C&amp;ATCLID=209429962&amp;DB_OEM_ID=10410\">all-Big 12 team<\/a> with bewilderment that Embiid wasn\u2019t on it.)&nbsp; I\u2019d still argue they are the obvious favorite here even without their talented center. <\/p>\n<p>But that doesn\u2019t mean the Jayhawks are a shoo-in to win it. Far from it, even if they had a healthy Embiid. A potential quarterfinal game against Oklahoma State figures to be a very competitive game, even with the proximity bonus I\u2019m assuming Kansas gets at the Sprint Center. In fact, you\u2019ll be hard pressed to find a third-to-last seed better than Oklahoma State in recent times. In other low-seed excitement, Baylor is the fourth choice despite being seeded seventh. The Bears get the virtual bye in the opening round and a quarterfinal game against Oklahoma will be a coin flip. The Big 12, like the Pac-12, does not have incredibly low odds for the seven-seed playing the eight-seed for the title.<\/p>\n","protected":false},"excerpt":{"rendered":"<p>I\u2019m using my ratings and Bill James\u2019 log5 formula to estimate the chances of each participating team advancing to a particular round of its conference tournament. Big 12 Conference Location: Kansas City (Sprint Center) Dates: March 12-15 Chance of bid thief: 4 percent Current kPOY: Andrew Wiggins, Kansas Projections: Qtrs Semis Final Champ 1 Kansas [&hellip;]<\/p>\n","protected":false},"author":1,"featured_media":0,"comment_status":"closed","ping_status":"closed","sticky":false,"template":"","format":"standard","meta":[],"categories":[1],"tags":[],"_links":{"self":[{"href":"https:\/\/kenpom.com\/blog\/wp-json\/wp\/v2\/posts\/193"}],"collection":[{"href":"https:\/\/kenpom.com\/blog\/wp-json\/wp\/v2\/posts"}],"about":[{"href":"https:\/\/kenpom.com\/blog\/wp-json\/wp\/v2\/types\/post"}],"author":[{"embeddable":true,"href":"https:\/\/kenpom.com\/blog\/wp-json\/wp\/v2\/users\/1"}],"replies":[{"embeddable":true,"href":"https:\/\/kenpom.com\/blog\/wp-json\/wp\/v2\/comments?post=193"}],"version-history":[{"count":0,"href":"https:\/\/kenpom.com\/blog\/wp-json\/wp\/v2\/posts\/193\/revisions"}],"wp:attachment":[{"href":"https:\/\/kenpom.com\/blog\/wp-json\/wp\/v2\/media?parent=193"}],"wp:term":[{"taxonomy":"category","embeddable":true,"href":"https:\/\/kenpom.com\/blog\/wp-json\/wp\/v2\/categories?post=193"},{"taxonomy":"post_tag","embeddable":true,"href":"https:\/\/kenpom.com\/blog\/wp-json\/wp\/v2\/tags?post=193"}],"curies":[{"name":"wp","href":"https:\/\/api.w.org\/{rel}","templated":true}]}}