{"id":192,"date":"2014-03-11T11:18:07","date_gmt":"2014-03-11T17:18:07","guid":{"rendered":"http:\/\/67.227.157.91\/~kenpom\/wp_blog\/acc-log5-2\/"},"modified":"2014-03-11T11:18:07","modified_gmt":"2014-03-11T17:18:07","slug":"acc-log5-2","status":"publish","type":"post","link":"https:\/\/kenpom.com\/blog\/acc-log5-2\/","title":{"rendered":"ACC log5"},"content":{"rendered":"<p><em>I\u2019m using my ratings and Bill James\u2019 log5 formula to estimate the chances of each participating team advancing to a particular round of its conference tournament.<\/em><\/p>\n<p><strong><a href=\"http:\/\/kenpom.com\/conf.php?c=ACC\">Atlantic Coast Conference<\/a><\/strong><br \/>\n<strong>Location:<\/strong> Greensboro, N.C. (Greensboro Coliseum)<br \/>\n<strong>Dates:<\/strong> March 12-16<br \/>\n<strong>Chance of bid thief:<\/strong> 6 percent<br \/>\n<strong>Current kPOY:<\/strong> Jabari Parker, Duke<\/p>\n<p><strong>Projections:<\/strong><\/p>\n<pre>\n                  Rd1   Qtrs  Semis  Final  Champ\n 1 Virginia       100    100   77.4   54.1   33.1\n 3 Duke           100    100   80.2   49.5   26.9\n 2 Syracuse       100    100   77.8   38.9   18.9\n 4 North Carolina 100    100   55.3   20.7    8.6\n 5 Pitt           100   78.2   39.8   15.2    6.5\n 9 Florida St.    100   52.2   12.2    5.1    1.7\n 6 Clemson        100   70.7   16.5    5.7    1.6\n 8 Maryland       100   47.8   10.4    4.1    1.3\n10 Miami FL      80.0   43.7   10.8    2.8    0.7\n 7 N.C. State     100   51.6   11.0    2.5    0.5\n13 Notre Dame    57.8   13.9    3.4    0.6    0.1\n11 Georgia Tech  56.0   17.6    2.2    0.4    0.07\n12 Wake Forest   42.2    7.9    1.5    0.2    0.03\n14 Boston Coll.  44.0   11.7    1.1    0.2    0.02\n15 Virginia Tech 20.0    4.6    0.4    0.03   0.002\n\n<\/pre>\n<p>The ACC tournament will stretch to five days for the first time in the conference\u2019s history. Virginia is the favorite here, but I\u2019m not including any proximity bonus for the teams located in North Carolina and it might be worth taking that into account. And most other predictive systems are higher on Duke than Virginia anyway, so maybe I wouldn\u2019t stake too much on Virginia being the pick here. Nonetheless, this tourney is basically a five-team race.<\/p>\n<p>There\u2019s not a whole lot of bid drama in Greensboro. The top five seeds appear to be safe and everyone below that appears to need the automatic bid. Really, what are the fun stories here? I can\u2019t really find one. Maybe I have just run out of gas from writing these previews. Virginia Tech has an opening day game with Miami and could get a third win over the Hurricanes while going 0-17 against the rest of the ACC. I guess that would be something interesting to tell your grandkids about when they put too much emphasis on head-to-head results someday.<\/p>\n","protected":false},"excerpt":{"rendered":"<p>I\u2019m using my ratings and Bill James\u2019 log5 formula to estimate the chances of each participating team advancing to a particular round of its conference tournament. Atlantic Coast Conference Location: Greensboro, N.C. (Greensboro Coliseum) Dates: March 12-16 Chance of bid thief: 6 percent Current kPOY: Jabari Parker, Duke Projections: Rd1 Qtrs Semis Final Champ 1 [&hellip;]<\/p>\n","protected":false},"author":1,"featured_media":0,"comment_status":"closed","ping_status":"closed","sticky":false,"template":"","format":"standard","meta":[],"categories":[1],"tags":[],"_links":{"self":[{"href":"https:\/\/kenpom.com\/blog\/wp-json\/wp\/v2\/posts\/192"}],"collection":[{"href":"https:\/\/kenpom.com\/blog\/wp-json\/wp\/v2\/posts"}],"about":[{"href":"https:\/\/kenpom.com\/blog\/wp-json\/wp\/v2\/types\/post"}],"author":[{"embeddable":true,"href":"https:\/\/kenpom.com\/blog\/wp-json\/wp\/v2\/users\/1"}],"replies":[{"embeddable":true,"href":"https:\/\/kenpom.com\/blog\/wp-json\/wp\/v2\/comments?post=192"}],"version-history":[{"count":0,"href":"https:\/\/kenpom.com\/blog\/wp-json\/wp\/v2\/posts\/192\/revisions"}],"wp:attachment":[{"href":"https:\/\/kenpom.com\/blog\/wp-json\/wp\/v2\/media?parent=192"}],"wp:term":[{"taxonomy":"category","embeddable":true,"href":"https:\/\/kenpom.com\/blog\/wp-json\/wp\/v2\/categories?post=192"},{"taxonomy":"post_tag","embeddable":true,"href":"https:\/\/kenpom.com\/blog\/wp-json\/wp\/v2\/tags?post=192"}],"curies":[{"name":"wp","href":"https:\/\/api.w.org\/{rel}","templated":true}]}}