{"id":187,"date":"2014-03-12T11:30:35","date_gmt":"2014-03-12T17:30:35","guid":{"rendered":"http:\/\/67.227.157.91\/~kenpom\/wp_blog\/big-west-log5-2\/"},"modified":"2014-03-12T11:30:35","modified_gmt":"2014-03-12T17:30:35","slug":"big-west-log5-2","status":"publish","type":"post","link":"https:\/\/kenpom.com\/blog\/big-west-log5-2\/","title":{"rendered":"Big West log5"},"content":{"rendered":"<p><em>I\u2019m using my ratings and Bill James\u2019 log5 formula to estimate the chances of each participating team advancing to a particular round of its conference tournament.<\/em><\/p>\n<p><strong><a href=\"http:\/\/kenpom.com\/conf.php?c=BW\">Big West Conference<\/a><\/strong><br \/>\n<strong>Location:<\/strong> Anaheim, Ca. (Honda Center)<br \/>\n<strong>Dates:<\/strong> March 13-15<br \/>\n<strong>Chance of bid thief:<\/strong> zero<br \/>\n<strong>Current kPOY:<\/strong> Alan Williams, UC Santa Barbara<\/p>\n<p><strong>Projections:<\/strong><\/p>\n<pre>\n                    Semis  Final  Champ\n1 UC Irvine          85.8   60.5   35.8\n2 UC Santa Barbara   80.8   56.8   32.9\n3 Long Beach St.     71.7   29.5   12.7\n4 Hawaii             69.3   27.9   12.3\n5 Cal St. Northridge 30.7    7.5    2.0\n7 Cal Poly           19.2    7.2    1.9\n6 Cal St. Fullerton  28.3    6.5    1.6\n8 UC Riverside       14.2    4.2    0.9\n\n<\/pre>\n<p>The sole purpose for this tournament is so that Alan Williams can right the injustice of the conference standings which had UCSB one game behind UC Irvine. These two teams are virtually identical and they\u2019re the best two teams in the conference. May the team with statistically-best center in the country win. And that player is not UCI\u2019s Mamadou N\u2019diaye.<\/p>\n<p>That wraps up log5 season. All in all, it wasn\u2019t as interesting as I\u2019d like. The favorites were entirely composed of one and two-seeds, and just seven two-seeds at that. The tournaments themselves have been a little more interesting, with hefty favorites Vermont and Davidson falling in the America East and SoCon, respectively. In addition, both Mount St. Mary\u2019s and Milwaukee improbably won two road games to claim their respective conference championships. Of the two, Milwaukee\u2019s four game run to the crown was by far more improbable, given a mere 0.4% chance of happening. That should easily stand as the craziest occurrence of championship fortnight.<\/p>\n","protected":false},"excerpt":{"rendered":"<p>I\u2019m using my ratings and Bill James\u2019 log5 formula to estimate the chances of each participating team advancing to a particular round of its conference tournament. Big West Conference Location: Anaheim, Ca. (Honda Center) Dates: March 13-15 Chance of bid thief: zero Current kPOY: Alan Williams, UC Santa Barbara Projections: Semis Final Champ 1 UC [&hellip;]<\/p>\n","protected":false},"author":1,"featured_media":0,"comment_status":"closed","ping_status":"closed","sticky":false,"template":"","format":"standard","meta":[],"categories":[1],"tags":[],"_links":{"self":[{"href":"https:\/\/kenpom.com\/blog\/wp-json\/wp\/v2\/posts\/187"}],"collection":[{"href":"https:\/\/kenpom.com\/blog\/wp-json\/wp\/v2\/posts"}],"about":[{"href":"https:\/\/kenpom.com\/blog\/wp-json\/wp\/v2\/types\/post"}],"author":[{"embeddable":true,"href":"https:\/\/kenpom.com\/blog\/wp-json\/wp\/v2\/users\/1"}],"replies":[{"embeddable":true,"href":"https:\/\/kenpom.com\/blog\/wp-json\/wp\/v2\/comments?post=187"}],"version-history":[{"count":0,"href":"https:\/\/kenpom.com\/blog\/wp-json\/wp\/v2\/posts\/187\/revisions"}],"wp:attachment":[{"href":"https:\/\/kenpom.com\/blog\/wp-json\/wp\/v2\/media?parent=187"}],"wp:term":[{"taxonomy":"category","embeddable":true,"href":"https:\/\/kenpom.com\/blog\/wp-json\/wp\/v2\/categories?post=187"},{"taxonomy":"post_tag","embeddable":true,"href":"https:\/\/kenpom.com\/blog\/wp-json\/wp\/v2\/tags?post=187"}],"curies":[{"name":"wp","href":"https:\/\/api.w.org\/{rel}","templated":true}]}}