Here\u2019s more than you want to know.<\/a><\/p>\n– This does not necessarily represent Ken Pomeroy\u2019s opinion. There are subjective factors which this analysis does not include. Please use it responsibly.<\/p>\n
– Don\u2019t interpret these numbers as saying Ken Pomeroy\u2019s computer is predicting Arizona will win the tournament. It\u2019s saying there\u2019s an 84% chance they won\u2019t.<\/p>\n
– If you doubt that seeding doesn\u2019t matter (much) check out how similar the order of these teams is to the team\u2019s ranking in my system. Louisville doesn\u2019t suffer much as a four-seed. However, it’s a different story if you have to play extra game like Tennessee.<\/p>\n
– No proximity bonus is included in any games here. <\/p>\n
\nSeed Team Rd32 Swt16 Elite8 Final4 Final Champ 1 in\u2026\n 1W Arizona 95.8 70.8 55.5 40.2 24.9 15.9 6\n 1S Florida 95.7 71.6 51.2 35.7 22.6 12.9 8\n 4MW Louisville 87.3 71.5 44.3 31.5 19.7 12.3 8\n 1E Virginia 96.7 77.4 52.9 35.4 21.2 11.5 9\n 1MW Wichita St. 95.4 68.1 36.8 24.4 13.9 8.0 13\n 2E Villanova 92.3 62.3 41.3 21.0 10.8 5.0 20\n 3W Creighton 87.0 59.1 36.1 16.6 7.6 3.6 27\n 2S Kansas 88.2 58.1 34.5 16.1 8.0 3.5 29\n 3MW Duke 84.6 53.5 33.2 14.1 6.8 3.2 31\n 4E Michigan St. 84.3 51.4 22.9 12.5 5.9 2.4 41\n 2W Wisconsin 82.2 53.3 29.0 12.4 5.3 2.3 43\n 2MW Michigan 91.3 60.9 31.2 11.7 5.0 2.1 47\n 3S Syracuse 83.6 48.4 25.2 10.5 4.7 1.8 55\n 5S VCU 73.0 42.5 16.8 8.9 4.1 1.6 62\n 4S UCLA 73.4 39.7 15.0 7.6 3.3 1.3 79\n 6S Ohio St. 66.7 35.5 17.6 7.0 3.0 1.1 93\n 3E Iowa St. 73.2 41.2 18.6 7.4 3.0 1.0 96\n 4W San Diego St. 72.6 43.7 14.5 7.0 2.6 1.0 97\n 9S Pittsburgh 71.5 23.0 11.9 5.9 2.5 0.9 108\n11MW Tennessee 40.9 20.8 11.9 4.5 2.0 0.9 117\n 8MW Kentucky 64.9 23.1 8.9 4.4 1.8 0.7 139\n 7E Connecticut 63.2 25.7 13.7 5.3 2.0 0.7 145\n 6E North Carolina 59.4 32.0 13.6 5.1 1.9 0.6 157\n 5E Cincinnati 56.3 26.8 9.9 4.6 1.8 0.6 162\n 8W Gonzaga 50.6 14.7 8.4 4.1 1.6 0.6 163\n 9W Oklahoma St. 49.4 14.1 8.0 3.9 1.4 0.6 178\n 7S New Mexico 56.9 24.0 11.1 3.8 1.4 0.5 222\n 5W Oklahoma 63.3 32.3 9.3 4.0 1.3 0.4 223\n 7W Oregon 60.0 27.2 11.8 3.9 1.3 0.4 233\n 6W Baylor 58.9 24.0 11.2 3.7 1.2 0.4 253\n12E Harvard 43.7 18.3 5.8 2.4 0.8 0.2 438\n11MW Iowa 26.2 11.3 5.6 1.7 0.6 0.2 451\n 5MW Saint Louis 57.1 14.4 4.3 1.7 0.5 0.2 638\n 7MW Texas 52.3 20.2 7.2 1.8 0.5 0.1 688\n10S Stanford 43.1 15.5 6.2 1.8 0.6 0.1 690\n11E Providence 40.6 18.1 6.2 1.8 0.5 0.1 729\n10MW Arizona St. 47.7 17.5 5.9 1.4 0.4 0.1 1015\n 9E G. Washington 50.0 11.1 4.0 1.4 0.4 0.09 1062\n 8E Memphis 50.0 11.1 4.0 1.4 0.4 0.09 1070\n11W Nebraska 41.1 13.7 5.2 1.4 0.3 0.09 1111\n10W BYU 40.0 14.5 5.0 1.3 0.3 0.08 1255\n10E Saint Joseph's 36.8 10.8 4.4 1.2 0.3 0.08 1325\n11S Dayton 33.3 12.5 4.2 1.1 0.3 0.07 1494\n 9MW Kansas St. 35.1 8.3 2.2 0.8 0.2 0.06 1704\n 6MW Massachusetts 33.0 10.6 3.9 0.8 0.2 0.05 1834\n12MW Xavier 27.2 6.2 1.7 0.6 0.2 0.05 2169\n12W N. Dakota St. 36.7 14.0 2.7 0.8 0.2 0.04 2259\n12S S.F. Austin 27.0 9.5 2.0 0.6 0.1 0.03 3397\n 8S Colorado 28.5 4.8 1.5 0.4 0.1 0.02 5169\n13S Tulsa 26.6 8.3 1.6 0.43 0.1 0.02 5361\n13W New Mexico St. 27.4 10.1 1.7 0.4 0.09 0.02 5845\n14E N.C. Central 26.8 8.6 2.1 0.4 0.09 0.01 6848\n13MW Manhattan 12.7 5.1 1.1 0.3 0.06 0.01 7639\n12MW N.C. State 15.7 2.8 0.6 0.2 0.04 0.008 12948\n15W American 17.8 5.1 1.1 0.2 0.02 0.004 26625\n14MW Mercer 15.4 3.8 0.9 0.1 0.02 0.003 35657\n13E Delaware 15.7 3.5 0.5 0.1 0.015 0.002 53891\n14S Western Mich. 16.4 3.6 0.7 0.09 0.01 0.001 67027\n14W La.-Lafayette 13.0 3.2 0.6 0.08 0.01 0.001 78951\n15S E. Kentucky 11.8 2.4 0.4 0.05 0.006 0.0006 162840\n15E Milwaukee 7.7 1.2 0.2 0.02 0.001 <.0001 992385\n16W Weber St. 4.2 0.5 0.07 0.008 0.0006 <.0001 2104239\n15MW Wofford 8.7 1.4 0.14 0.008 0.0006 <.0001 2248165\n16MW Cal Poly 3.3 0.4 0.04 0.004 0.0003 <.0001 4225592\n16S Albany 2.3 0.3 0.04 0.004 0.0003 <.0001 5124856\n16S Mt. St. Mary's 2.0 0.2 0.03 0.002 0.0002 <.0001 8766968\n16E Coastal Car. 3.3 0.4 0.03 0.002 0.0001 <.0001 20811710\n16MW Texas Southern 1.3 0.1 0.006 0.0004 <.0001 <.0001 106501028\n\nSeed Team Rd32 Swt16 Elite8 Final4 Final Champ 1 in\u2026\n 1E Virginia 96.7 77.4 52.9 35.4 21.2 11.5 9\n 2E Villanova 92.3 62.3 41.3 21.0 10.8 5.0 20\n 4E Michigan St. 84.3 51.4 22.9 12.5 5.9 2.4 41\n 3E Iowa St. 73.2 41.2 18.6 7.4 3.0 1.0 96\n 7E Connecticut 63.2 25.7 13.7 5.3 2.0 0.7 145\n 6E North Carolina 59.4 32.0 13.6 5.1 1.9 0.6 157\n 5E Cincinnati 56.3 26.8 9.9 4.6 1.8 0.6 162\n12E Harvard 43.7 18.3 5.8 2.4 0.8 0.2 438\n11E Providence 40.6 18.1 6.2 1.8 0.5 0.1 729\n 9E G. Washington 50.0 11.1 4.0 1.4 0.4 0.09 1062\n 8E Memphis 50.0 11.1 4.0 1.4 0.4 0.09 1070\n10E Saint Joseph's 36.8 10.8 4.4 1.2 0.3 0.08 1325\n14E N.C. Central 26.8 8.6 2.1 0.4 0.09 0.01 6848\n13E Delaware 15.7 3.5 0.5 0.1 0.015 0.002 53891\n15E Milwaukee 7.7 1.2 0.2 0.02 0.001 <.0001 992385\n16E Coastal Car. 3.3 0.4 0.03 0.002 0.0001 <.0001 20811710\n\nSeed Team Rd32 Swt16 Elite8 Final4 Final Champ 1 in\u2026\n 1S Florida 95.7 71.6 51.2 35.7 22.6 12.9 8\n 2S Kansas 88.2 58.1 34.5 16.1 8.0 3.5 29\n 3S Syracuse 83.6 48.4 25.2 10.5 4.7 1.8 55\n 5S VCU 73.0 42.5 16.8 8.9 4.1 1.6 62\n 4S UCLA 73.4 39.7 15.0 7.6 3.3 1.3 79\n 6S Ohio St. 66.7 35.5 17.6 7.0 3.0 1.1 93\n 9S Pittsburgh 71.5 23.0 11.9 5.9 2.5 0.9 108\n 7S New Mexico 56.9 24.0 11.1 3.8 1.4 0.5 222\n10S Stanford 43.1 15.5 6.2 1.8 0.6 0.1 690\n11S Dayton 33.3 12.5 4.2 1.1 0.3 0.07 1494\n12S S.F. Austin 27.0 9.5 2.0 0.6 0.1 0.03 3397\n 8S Colorado 28.5 4.8 1.5 0.4 0.1 0.02 5169\n13S Tulsa 26.6 8.3 1.6 0.43 0.1 0.02 5361\n14S Western Mich. 16.4 3.6 0.7 0.09 0.01 0.001 67027\n15S E. Kentucky 11.8 2.4 0.4 0.05 0.006 0.0006 162840\n16S Albany 2.3 0.3 0.04 0.004 0.0003 <.0001 5124856\n16S Mt. St. Mary's 2.0 0.2 0.03 0.002 0.0002 <.0001 8766968\n\nSeed Team Rd32 Swt16 Elite8 Final4 Final Champ 1 in\u2026\n 4MW Louisville 87.3 71.5 44.3 31.5 19.7 12.3 8\n 1MW Wichita St. 95.4 68.1 36.8 24.4 13.9 8.0 13\n 3MW Duke 84.6 53.5 33.2 14.1 6.8 3.2 31\n 2MW Michigan 91.3 60.9 31.2 11.7 5.0 2.1 47\n11MW Tennessee 40.9 20.8 11.9 4.5 2.0 0.9 117\n 8MW Kentucky 64.9 23.1 8.9 4.4 1.8 0.7 139\n11MW Iowa 26.2 11.3 5.6 1.7 0.6 0.2 451\n 5MW Saint Louis 57.1 14.4 4.3 1.7 0.5 0.2 638\n 7MW Texas 52.3 20.2 7.2 1.8 0.5 0.1 688\n10MW Arizona St. 47.7 17.5 5.9 1.4 0.4 0.1 1015\n 9MW Kansas St. 35.1 8.3 2.2 0.8 0.2 0.06 1704\n 6MW Massachusetts 33.0 10.6 3.9 0.8 0.2 0.05 1834\n12MW Xavier 27.2 6.2 1.7 0.6 0.2 0.05 2169\n13MW Manhattan 12.7 5.1 1.1 0.3 0.06 0.01 7639\n12MW N.C. State 15.7 2.8 0.6 0.2 0.04 0.008 12948\n14MW Mercer 15.4 3.8 0.9 0.1 0.02 0.003 35657\n15MW Wofford 8.7 1.4 0.14 0.008 0.0006 <.0001 2248165\n16MW Cal Poly 3.3 0.4 0.04 0.004 0.0003 <.0001 4225592\n16MW Texas Southern 1.3 0.1 0.006 0.0004 <.0001 <.0001 106501028\n\nSeed Team Rd32 Swt16 Elite8 Final4 Final Champ 1 in\u2026\n 1W Arizona 95.8 70.8 55.5 40.2 24.9 15.9 6\n 3W Creighton 87.0 59.1 36.1 16.6 7.6 3.6 27\n 2W Wisconsin 82.2 53.3 29.0 12.4 5.3 2.3 43\n 4W San Diego St. 72.6 43.7 14.5 7.0 2.6 1.0 97\n 8W Gonzaga 50.6 14.7 8.4 4.1 1.6 0.6 163\n 9W Oklahoma St. 49.4 14.1 8.0 3.9 1.4 0.6 178\n 5W Oklahoma 63.3 32.3 9.3 4.0 1.3 0.4 223\n 7W Oregon 60.0 27.2 11.8 3.9 1.3 0.4 233\n 6W Baylor 58.9 24.0 11.2 3.7 1.2 0.4 253\n11W Nebraska 41.1 13.7 5.2 1.4 0.3 0.09 1111\n10W BYU 40.0 14.5 5.0 1.3 0.3 0.08 1255\n12W N. Dakota St. 36.7 14.0 2.7 0.8 0.2 0.04 2259\n13W New Mexico St. 27.4 10.1 1.7 0.4 0.09 0.02 5845\n15W American 17.8 5.1 1.1 0.2 0.02 0.004 26625\n14W La.-Lafayette 13.0 3.2 0.6 0.08 0.01 0.001 78951\n16W Weber St. 4.2 0.5 0.07 0.008 0.0006 <.0001 2104239\n<\/pre>\n","protected":false},"excerpt":{"rendered":"What follows is the master log5 for the 68-team field. At the risk of being lumped in with Rick Reilly, I will recycle the disclaimers from last year: – The calculations below represent the chance of each team advancing to a specific round based on the log5 formula and each team\u2019s pythagorean rating. Unfamiliar with […]<\/p>\n","protected":false},"author":1,"featured_media":0,"comment_status":"closed","ping_status":"closed","sticky":false,"template":"","format":"standard","meta":[],"categories":[1],"tags":[],"_links":{"self":[{"href":"https:\/\/kenpom.com\/blog\/wp-json\/wp\/v2\/posts\/186"}],"collection":[{"href":"https:\/\/kenpom.com\/blog\/wp-json\/wp\/v2\/posts"}],"about":[{"href":"https:\/\/kenpom.com\/blog\/wp-json\/wp\/v2\/types\/post"}],"author":[{"embeddable":true,"href":"https:\/\/kenpom.com\/blog\/wp-json\/wp\/v2\/users\/1"}],"replies":[{"embeddable":true,"href":"https:\/\/kenpom.com\/blog\/wp-json\/wp\/v2\/comments?post=186"}],"version-history":[{"count":0,"href":"https:\/\/kenpom.com\/blog\/wp-json\/wp\/v2\/posts\/186\/revisions"}],"wp:attachment":[{"href":"https:\/\/kenpom.com\/blog\/wp-json\/wp\/v2\/media?parent=186"}],"wp:term":[{"taxonomy":"category","embeddable":true,"href":"https:\/\/kenpom.com\/blog\/wp-json\/wp\/v2\/categories?post=186"},{"taxonomy":"post_tag","embeddable":true,"href":"https:\/\/kenpom.com\/blog\/wp-json\/wp\/v2\/tags?post=186"}],"curies":[{"name":"wp","href":"https:\/\/api.w.org\/{rel}","templated":true}]}}