{"id":17,"date":"2016-03-14T00:01:52","date_gmt":"2016-03-14T06:01:52","guid":{"rendered":"http:\/\/67.227.157.91\/~kenpom\/wp_blog\/2016-ncaa-tournament-log5\/"},"modified":"2019-04-29T13:59:24","modified_gmt":"2019-04-29T19:59:24","slug":"2016-ncaa-tournament-log5","status":"publish","type":"post","link":"https:\/\/kenpom.com\/blog\/2016-ncaa-tournament-log5\/","title":{"rendered":"2016 NCAA tournament log5"},"content":{"rendered":"<p>What follows is the odds for every team in the field of 68 advancing through each round of the NCAA tournament using log5 methodology and my ratings.<!--more--><\/p>\n<pre>                       Rd2   Swt16  Elite8 Final4 Final  Champ   1 in\r\n 1MW  Virginia         96.2   77.9   54.5   34.2   21.4   13.2    8\r\n 2MW  Michigan St.     92.2   75.0   55.8   32.4   19.8   11.9    8\r\n 4MW  Iowa St.         75.2   39.0   15.2    6.8    3.0    1.3    79\r\n 5MW  Purdue           71.4   43.1   18.4    9.0    4.3    2.0    49\r\n 6MW  Seton Hall       51.4   30.2   11.1    4.0    1.5    0.6    175\r\n 3MW  Utah             75.2   36.1   12.5    4.2    1.5    0.5    189\r\n11MW  Gonzaga          48.6   27.9    9.9    3.4    1.3    0.5    216\r\n10MW  Syracuse         54.7   13.3    5.7    1.5    0.5    0.1    770\r\n 9MW  Butler           50.5   11.0    4.0    1.2    0.4    0.1    941\r\n 8MW  Texas Tech       49.5   10.6    3.8    1.2    0.3    0.1    1035\r\n12MW  Little Rock      28.6   11.2    2.7    0.8    0.2    0.06   1678\r\n 7MW  Dayton           45.3    9.7    3.7    0.9    0.2    0.06   1751\r\n13MW  Iona             24.8    6.7    1.3    0.3    0.06   0.01   8116\r\n14MW  Fresno St.       24.8    5.8    0.9    0.1    0.02   0.004  27831\r\n15MW  Middle Tennessee  7.8    2.1    0.4    0.05   0.007  0.0008 124679\r\n16MW  Hampton           3.8    0.5    0.05   0.004  0.0003 &lt;.0001 6010907\r\n\r\n                       Rd2   Swt16  Elite8 Final4 Final  Champ   1 in\r\n 1E   North Carolina   95.6   76.6   48.4   32.3   17.6   10.3    10\r\n 3E   West Virginia    70.1   52.9   34.4   17.5    8.4    4.4    23\r\n 4E   Kentucky         83.2   51.9   25.8   15.4    7.2    3.7    27\r\n 2E   Xavier           86.4   55.7   29.5   12.5    5.0    2.2    46\r\n 5E   Indiana          81.9   40.0   17.3    9.1    3.7    1.6    62\r\n 7E   Wisconsin        56.2   24.6   10.2    3.2    1.0    0.3    321\r\n14E   S. F. Austin     29.9   17.0    7.7    2.4    0.7    0.2    436\r\n 6E   Notre Dame       55.9   18.0    7.4    2.1    0.5    0.2    638\r\n10E   Pittsburgh       43.8   16.7    6.0    1.6    0.4    0.1    906\r\n 9E   Providence       50.4   11.5    3.6    1.3    0.3    0.08   1196\r\n 8E   USC              49.6   11.2    3.5    1.2    0.3    0.08   1284\r\n11E   Michigan         22.8    6.3    2.3    0.5    0.1    0.03   3286\r\n11E   Tulsa            21.3    5.7    2.0    0.5    0.1    0.02   4098\r\n13E   Stony Brook      16.8    4.6    0.9    0.2    0.03   0.006  16584\r\n12E   Chattanooga      18.1    3.5    0.6    0.1    0.02   0.003  39409\r\n15E   Weber St.        13.6    3.0    0.5    0.06   0.006  0.0006 154051\r\n16E   FCGU              3.6    0.7    0.06   0.008  0.0005 &lt;.0001 2303720\r\n16E   F. Dickinson      0.8    0.07   0.004  0.0002 &lt;.0001 &lt;.0001 363773082\r\n\r\n                       Rd2   Swt16  Elite8 Final4 Final  Champ   1 in\r\n 1S   Kansas           96.9   75.5   57.4   37.3   26.0   15.4    7\r\n 2S   Villanova        89.9   63.3   40.3   21.9   13.9    7.3    14\r\n 3S   Miami FL         86.7   44.8   20.3    8.7    4.5    1.8    55\r\n 6S   Arizona          51.5   27.7   12.3    5.1    2.6    1.0    98\r\n 7S   Iowa             76.2   29.9   14.4    5.7    2.8    1.0    98\r\n 4S   California       68.8   39.3   13.5    5.6    2.6    0.9    107\r\n 5S   Maryland         72.6   39.9   13.4    5.4    2.5    0.9    115\r\n11S   Wichita St.      30.6   17.1    7.9    3.5    1.8    0.7    133\r\n 9S   Connecticut      65.1   18.0    9.5    3.8    1.7    0.6    175\r\n11S   Vanderbilt       17.9    8.5    3.2    1.2    0.5    0.2    583\r\n 8S   Colorado         34.9    6.2    2.3    0.6    0.2    0.04   2376\r\n13S   Hawaii           31.2   12.0    2.4    0.6    0.2    0.04   2790\r\n12S   South Dakota St. 27.4    8.8    1.5    0.3    0.08   0.01   7442\r\n10S   Temple           23.8    4.5    1.0    0.2    0.04   0.007  14332\r\n15S   UNC Asheville    10.1    2.4    0.4    0.05   0.009  0.001  89976\r\n14S   Buffalo          13.3    1.9    0.2    0.03   0.004  0.0004 246405\r\n16S   Austin Peay       3.1    0.3    0.03   0.002  0.0002 &lt;.0001 13047350\r\n\r\n                       Rd2   Swt16  Elite8 Final4 Final  Champ   1 in\r\n 2W   Oklahoma         83.7   61.6   39.8   24.1   11.7    5.5    18\r\n 1W   Oregon           95.6   65.0   41.5   23.7   10.9    4.9    21\r\n 3W   Texas A&amp;M        83.6   54.2   28.2   14.9    6.1    2.4    42\r\n 4W   Duke             72.3   39.9   18.7    8.9    3.3    1.2    85\r\n 5W   Baylor           60.7   33.5   15.4    7.2    2.6    0.9    112\r\n 6W   Texas            68.1   31.6   13.6    5.9    1.9    0.6    173\r\n 9W   Cincinnati       54.5   19.8    9.4    3.9    1.2    0.4    281\r\n10W   VCU              58.8   20.9    9.2    3.6    1.0    0.3    351\r\n 8W   Saint Joseph's   45.5   14.8    6.4    2.4    0.7    0.2    586\r\n12W   Yale             39.3   17.6    6.3    2.3    0.6    0.2    617\r\n 7W   Oregon St.       41.2   11.8    4.2    1.3    0.3    0.06   1584\r\n11W   Northern Iowa    31.9    9.7    2.6    0.7    0.1    0.02   4347\r\n13W   UNC Wilmington   27.7    9.0    2.3    0.6    0.1    0.02   4701\r\n15W   CSU Bakersfield  16.3    5.7    1.6    0.4    0.06   0.009  10573\r\n14W   Green Bay        16.4    4.5    0.9    0.2    0.02   0.002  41543\r\n16W   Southern          3.0    0.3    0.03   0.003  &lt;.0001 &lt;.0001 25328061\r\n16W   Holy Cross        1.4    0.1    0.006  0.0003 &lt;.0001 &lt;.0001 326626540\r\n\r\n                       Rd2   Swt16  Elite8 Final4 Final  Champ   1 in\r\n 1S   Kansas           96.9   75.5   57.4   37.3   26.0   15.4    7\r\n 1MW  Virginia         96.2   77.9   54.5   34.2   21.4   13.2    8\r\n 2MW  Michigan St.     92.2   75.0   55.8   32.4   19.8   11.9    8\r\n 1E   North Carolina   95.6   76.6   48.4   32.3   17.6   10.3    10\r\n 2S   Villanova        89.9   63.3   40.3   21.9   13.9    7.3    14\r\n 2W   Oklahoma         83.7   61.6   39.8   24.1   11.7    5.5    18\r\n 1W   Oregon           95.6   65.0   41.5   23.7   10.9    4.9    21\r\n 3E   West Virginia    70.1   52.9   34.4   17.5    8.4    4.4    23\r\n 4E   Kentucky         83.2   51.9   25.8   15.4    7.2    3.7    27\r\n 3W   Texas A&amp;M        83.6   54.2   28.2   14.9    6.1    2.4    42\r\n 2E   Xavier           86.4   55.7   29.5   12.5    5.0    2.2    46\r\n 5MW  Purdue           71.4   43.1   18.4    9.0    4.3    2.0    49\r\n 3S   Miami FL         86.7   44.8   20.3    8.7    4.5    1.8    55\r\n 5E   Indiana          81.9   40.0   17.3    9.1    3.7    1.6    62\r\n 4MW  Iowa St.         75.2   39.0   15.2    6.8    3.0    1.3    79\r\n 4W   Duke             72.3   39.9   18.7    8.9    3.3    1.2    85\r\n 6S   Arizona          51.5   27.7   12.3    5.1    2.6    1.0    98\r\n 7S   Iowa             76.2   29.9   14.4    5.7    2.8    1.0    98\r\n 4S   California       68.8   39.3   13.5    5.6    2.6    0.9    107\r\n 5W   Baylor           60.7   33.5   15.4    7.2    2.6    0.9    112\r\n 5S   Maryland         72.6   39.9   13.4    5.4    2.5    0.9    115\r\n11S   Wichita St.      30.6   17.1    7.9    3.5    1.8    0.7    133\r\n 6W   Texas            68.1   31.6   13.6    5.9    1.9    0.6    173\r\n 9S   Connecticut      65.1   18.0    9.5    3.8    1.7    0.6    175\r\n 6MW  Seton Hall       51.4   30.2   11.1    4.0    1.5    0.6    175\r\n 3MW  Utah             75.2   36.1   12.5    4.2    1.5    0.5    189\r\n11MW  Gonzaga          48.6   27.9    9.9    3.4    1.3    0.5    216\r\n 9W   Cincinnati       54.5   19.8    9.4    3.9    1.2    0.4    281\r\n 7E   Wisconsin        56.2   24.6   10.2    3.2    1.0    0.3    321\r\n10W   VCU              58.8   20.9    9.2    3.6    1.0    0.3    351\r\n14E   S. F. Austin     29.9   17.0    7.7    2.4    0.7    0.2    436\r\n11S   Vanderbilt       17.9    8.5    3.2    1.2    0.5    0.2    583\r\n 8W   Saint Joseph's   45.5   14.8    6.4    2.4    0.7    0.2    586\r\n12W   Yale             39.3   17.6    6.3    2.3    0.6    0.2    617\r\n 6E   Notre Dame       55.9   18.0    7.4    2.1    0.5    0.2    638\r\n10MW  Syracuse         54.7   13.3    5.7    1.5    0.5    0.1    770\r\n10E   Pittsburgh       43.8   16.7    6.0    1.6    0.4    0.1    906\r\n 9MW  Butler           50.5   11.0    4.0    1.2    0.4    0.1    941\r\n 8MW  Texas Tech       49.5   10.6    3.8    1.2    0.3    0.1    1035\r\n 9E   Providence       50.4   11.5    3.6    1.3    0.3    0.08   1196\r\n 8E   USC              49.6   11.2    3.5    1.2    0.3    0.08   1284\r\n 7W   Oregon St.       41.2   11.8    4.2    1.3    0.3    0.06   1584\r\n12MW  Little Rock      28.6   11.2    2.7    0.8    0.2    0.06   1678\r\n 7MW  Dayton           45.3    9.7    3.7    0.9    0.2    0.06   1751\r\n 8S   Colorado         34.9    6.2    2.3    0.6    0.2    0.04   2376\r\n13S   Hawaii           31.2   12.0    2.4    0.6    0.2    0.04   2790\r\n11E   Michigan         22.8    6.3    2.3    0.5    0.1    0.03   3286\r\n11E   Tulsa            21.3    5.7    2.0    0.5    0.1    0.02   4098\r\n11W   Northern Iowa    31.9    9.7    2.6    0.7    0.1    0.02   4347\r\n13W   UNC Wilmington   27.7    9.0    2.3    0.6    0.1    0.02   4701\r\n12S   South Dakota St. 27.4    8.8    1.5    0.3    0.08   0.01   7442\r\n13MW  Iona             24.8    6.7    1.3    0.3    0.06   0.01   8116\r\n15W   CSU Bakersfield  16.3    5.7    1.6    0.4    0.06   0.009  10573\r\n10S   Temple           23.8    4.5    1.0    0.2    0.04   0.007  14332\r\n13E   Stony Brook      16.8    4.6    0.9    0.2    0.03   0.006  16584\r\n14MW  Fresno St.       24.8    5.8    0.9    0.1    0.02   0.004  27831\r\n12E   Chattanooga      18.1    3.5    0.6    0.1    0.02   0.003  39409\r\n14W   Green Bay        16.4    4.5    0.9    0.2    0.02   0.002  41543\r\n15S   UNC Asheville    10.1    2.4    0.4    0.05   0.009  0.001  89976\r\n15MW  Middle Tennessee  7.8    2.1    0.4    0.05   0.007  0.0008 124679\r\n15E   Weber St.        13.6    3.0    0.5    0.06   0.006  0.0006 154051\r\n14S   Buffalo          13.3    1.9    0.2    0.03   0.004  0.0004 246405\r\n16E   FCGU              3.6    0.7    0.06   0.008  0.0005 &lt;.0001 2303720\r\n16MW  Hampton           3.8    0.5    0.05   0.004  0.0003 &lt;.0001 6010907\r\n16S   Austin Peay       3.1    0.3    0.03   0.002  0.0002 &lt;.0001 13047350\r\n16W   Southern          3.0    0.3    0.03   0.003  &lt;.0001 &lt;.0001 25328061\r\n16W   Holy Cross        1.4    0.1    0.006  0.0003 &lt;.0001 &lt;.0001 326626540\r\n16E   F. Dickinson      0.8    0.07   0.004  0.0002 &lt;.0001 &lt;.0001 363773082\r\n<\/pre>\n","protected":false},"excerpt":{"rendered":"<p>What follows is the odds for every team in the field of 68 advancing through each round of the NCAA tournament using log5 methodology and my ratings.<\/p>\n","protected":false},"author":1,"featured_media":0,"comment_status":"closed","ping_status":"closed","sticky":false,"template":"","format":"standard","meta":[],"categories":[1],"tags":[],"_links":{"self":[{"href":"https:\/\/kenpom.com\/blog\/wp-json\/wp\/v2\/posts\/17"}],"collection":[{"href":"https:\/\/kenpom.com\/blog\/wp-json\/wp\/v2\/posts"}],"about":[{"href":"https:\/\/kenpom.com\/blog\/wp-json\/wp\/v2\/types\/post"}],"author":[{"embeddable":true,"href":"https:\/\/kenpom.com\/blog\/wp-json\/wp\/v2\/users\/1"}],"replies":[{"embeddable":true,"href":"https:\/\/kenpom.com\/blog\/wp-json\/wp\/v2\/comments?post=17"}],"version-history":[{"count":3,"href":"https:\/\/kenpom.com\/blog\/wp-json\/wp\/v2\/posts\/17\/revisions"}],"predecessor-version":[{"id":2037,"href":"https:\/\/kenpom.com\/blog\/wp-json\/wp\/v2\/posts\/17\/revisions\/2037"}],"wp:attachment":[{"href":"https:\/\/kenpom.com\/blog\/wp-json\/wp\/v2\/media?parent=17"}],"wp:term":[{"taxonomy":"category","embeddable":true,"href":"https:\/\/kenpom.com\/blog\/wp-json\/wp\/v2\/categories?post=17"},{"taxonomy":"post_tag","embeddable":true,"href":"https:\/\/kenpom.com\/blog\/wp-json\/wp\/v2\/tags?post=17"}],"curies":[{"name":"wp","href":"https:\/\/api.w.org\/{rel}","templated":true}]}}